Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 221636
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

VALID JUN 22/1200 UTC THRU JUN 26/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
...RECURVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATL...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RECURVING T.D. CINDY THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THEREAFTER...CINDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. A
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF CINDY WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT AND
EARLY SAT BEFORE THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER... THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN ANY
OTHER MODEL BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AND BECOMES AN OUTLIER. THE 00Z
UKMET HANGS ONTO A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTER AND APPEARS
TOO DEEP WITH CINDY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. STRONGER MODEL CLUSTERING AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
RESIDES WITH THE 12Z NAM/00Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF...AND SO A BLEND OF
THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED AT THIS TIME FOR THE MASS
FIELDS. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
CINDY...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST QPFPFD AND QPFERD FOR DETAILS ON
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.


...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S....
...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND MOVING INTO THE EAST...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE THEN MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRI. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH FRI. ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA
BY AROUND THEN WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST GOING THROUGH SAT AND HELP LEAD THE WAY FOR A MUCH
BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SAT AND WILL ALSO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ABSORBING THE EVENTUAL REMAINS OF T.D. CINDY WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY SAT. ASIDE FROM SOME SMALL SCALE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...THE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS.
THEREFORE WILL PREFER A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE DETAILS
OF THE EVOLVING LARGE SCALE TROUGH.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

ORRISON

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