Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 281617
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID JUL 28/1200 UTC THRU AUG 01/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE FIRST ISSUE IS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE 12Z NAM
IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP CYCLONE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA -- ITS
USUAL BIAS.  BECAUSE OF THIS, IT LURES ITS SURFACE LOW OUT OF
TEXAS PAST THE ARKLATEX, WHICH ENJOYS THE SUPPORT OF 3-5 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OUT OF 90.  A NON-NAM COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE


NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED OR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED.  OUTSIDE THE UKMET,
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO VARIOUS DEGREES, WITH THE 12Z
GFS SHOWING A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.  THE 12Z GFS IS PREFERRED
WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
ORIGIN.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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