Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 220637
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

VALID MAR 22/0000 UTC THRU MAR 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NAM WAS UPGRADED TO A NEW VERSION 21/12Z
CYCLE...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF IN THE BAHAMAS
UPPER TROUGH LEAVING NEW ENGLAND TODAY
SHORTWAVE STREAKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, SIMILAR TO THE PARALLEL
VERSION OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF/ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SLOWING/WESTWARD
TREND IN THE ECMWF SINCE ITS 12Z RUN.  IT APPEARS THIS IS DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH/RIDGE COUPLET OUT WEST.  THE
RIDGE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW ITS
PROGRESSION, AND FOR NOW, THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGRESSION
IN THE WEST SLIGHTLY EXCEEDS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
INTERESTINGLY, THE WESTERN TROUGH IN THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO A
MORE SOUTHWARD SOLUTION WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM.  PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE -- SIMILAR TO THE PARALLEL
VERSION OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS -- WHICH IS A SOLUTION
WEIGHTED SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE 00Z ECMWF.  CONFIDENCE
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THIS CHOICE.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

Roth
$$





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