Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 231657
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1257 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

VALID MAY 23/1200 UTC THRU MAY 27/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

CLOSED LOW LIFTING FROM MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST MON-WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH WED.


QUASI-STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z EC ENS MEAN
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
EARLY WED BEFORE THE GFS BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER...LEAVING MORE OF
THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA THAN THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE 06Z GEFS MEAN ARE SHOWING.  AT THIS
POINT THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS AND EC FALL NEAR THE
MIDST OF THE MODEL SPREAD.


SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE MEAN RIDGE IN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN QUE...COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NAM/GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH WED.  THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER
THEREAFTER.


UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE LIFTING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF (SEE THE 00Z
EC ENS MEAN)
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

BY EARLY WED AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS...THE NAM
BECOMES A RELATIVE OUTLIER AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS --
INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS BY LATE WED.  THROUGH LATE WED...THE GFS AND
00Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT -- INDICATING A MORE
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF TAKES THIS
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST ON THU...AMPLIFYING IT AS IT PHASES
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES.  WHILE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN ITS 06Z RUN...THE GFS IS AMONGST THE SLOWER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE.  IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES A
FAST OUTLIER -- OUTPACING ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS THE
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS. WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE
GFS/00Z ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...IT
IS EXHIBITING SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH A SHORTWAVE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...TRACKING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY WED MORNING TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THU.

TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CA COAST BY
TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FAIRLY WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH WED...WITH THE GFS AND 06Z GEFS MEAN BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN ON THU.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

PEREIRA

$$




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