Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
000
FXUS10 KWNH 280505
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID JUL 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 31/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING NAM/GFS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE DAKOTAS ON TUE WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-MISS VALLEY EARLY WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THROUGH DAY 2...NON NAM
COMPROMISE DAY 3
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

NO SIGNIFICANT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN IN THE MODELS
FOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 2.  THE NAM BECOMES A DEEP OUTLIER ON
DAY 3...AN IDEA WHICH HAS LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS OR THE ENSEMBLES.


LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST/FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THU
POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH / CLOSED LOW IN THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MID TO
LATE WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A GREATER THAN USUAL SPREAD
OF POSSIBLE SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  THE 27/12Z ECMWF LOOKS TOO STRONG/TOO FAR
NORTH...ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT THE 28/00Z GFS MADE A MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTH WHEN COMPARED WITH THE 27/12Z RUN.  NEITHER THE
ECMWF OR GFS WAS NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE 27/12Z UKMET. THINK THE
00Z GFS IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND IS
TOWARDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF SOLNS AS SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS
ENSEMBLES.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.