Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 260442
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

VALID JUN 26/0000 UTC THRU JUN 29/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS


DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL CANADA
LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THU
UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING NORTHERN CA/OR TODAY
FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHWEST AND PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

WITH BOTH THE LEADING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND THE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA/MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 12Z
CANADIAN BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITHIN THE 700 HPA HEIGHT
FIELD -- MORE CIRCULAR AND SOUTHERLY IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER/NEARLY CLOSED OVER MT WHICH WAS NOT SEEN ON
THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF/00Z
NAM/00Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


700 HPA CIRCULATION ENTERING WESTERN KS EARLY THURSDAY
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S BY WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN, AND
12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO IRON OUT ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN SEEN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z
UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN, AND 12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO IRON OUT ANY
LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

ROTH
$$





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