Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 061630
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1229 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

VALID JUL 06/1200 UTC THRU JUL 10/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

ALOFT, THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN THE QUICKEST TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE 00Z UKMET THE SLOWEST -- AGAINST THE
USUAL CANADIAN/UKMET BIASES.  THE 00Z GFS SHOWED AN INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION ALOFT WHICH BEST ALIGNED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS
MEANS, THOUGH ITS SURFACE SOLUTION MIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOW.  OVERALL,
BELIEVE A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/12Z GFS IS BEST, WHICH IS
PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.



TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
SYSTEM MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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