Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 270440
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1240 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

VALID JUN 27/0000 UTC THRU JUN 30/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN IS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  OTHERWISE,
THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF,
12Z UKMET, 00Z GFS, AND 00Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS A STRONG, SLOW OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM`S
MOVEMENT, ITS USUAL BIAS.  A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z
UKMET, 00Z GFS, AND 00Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS, OUTSIDE THE NAM, ARE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE STRONGEST, ITS USUAL BIAS.  PREFER A COMPROMISE
OF THE 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET, AND 00Z GFS WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT HERE, SO PREFER A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z NAM, 00Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, 12Z UKMET, AND 12Z
CANADIAN TO DEAL WITH ANY DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

ROTH
$$




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