Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 310453
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1252 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID MAY 31/0000 UTC THRU JUN 03/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z NCEP MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NEW ENGLAND TUES/EXITING EARLY
WED AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM WERE KEPT FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. OF NOTE...THE 00Z NAM BECAME A BIT FLATTER
THAN THE 12Z AS THE WAVE EXISTS THE COAST.  THE NEW GFS AND THE
30/12Z ECMWF STILL MAINTAINED GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THEMSELVES.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED WEAKENING
INTO CANADA BY THUR
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH 02/00Z
             NON-NAM AFTERWARD
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE THRU 02/00Z THEN AVERAGE AFTERWARD

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN PLACEMENT/STRENGTH AND TIMING THROUGH THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT
AND PIVOTING STAGES OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH EVENTUAL MODEL SPREAD
GROWING AFTER 02/12Z.

AT THAT POINT...THE MODELS TEND TO TAKE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE
RATE OF WEAKENING AND/OR INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN CANADIAN
SYSTEM.  WHILE THE 00Z NAM BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE IDEA OF BEING
STRONGER AS SHOWN BY ITS 30/12Z RUN.  STILL THINK THAT A NON NAM
MODEL BLEND WORKS HERE AFTER 02/00Z WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM STILL EMPHASIZES UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF SHORTWAVE/MCS
FEATURES WED NIGHT/THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT
NEGATIVELY IMPACTS ITS MASS FIELD FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS
TRENDED A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BY 02/18Z WITH SEVERAL VORTS ROTATING
AROUND A MID LEVEL CENTER.  THIS KEEPS THE 30/12Z UKMET ON THE
FASTER/BROADER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  OVERALL...THE
31/00Z GFS AND 30/12Z ECMWF STILL PROBABLY FORMS THE CLOSEST
ALLIANCE AND REMAINS THE PREFERRED APPROACH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$





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