Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 031624
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1123 AM EST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS

...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST...
...COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST...
...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE
MID-ATLANTIC

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE 00Z UKMET IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF GENERALLY A BIT
FASTER AND ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST LATE WED THROUGH THURS. THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z GEM SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE...BUT THE NAM HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED
WITH THE FRONT BY THURS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CROSS THE OH
VALLEY BY LATE THURS AND THEN THE NORTHEAST THURS NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND SHOULD TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURS BEFORE EJECTING
RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF OVERALL HAVE BETTER
CONTINUITY AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...INCLUDING THAT OF THE 06Z GEFS
MEAN AND 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF AT THIS TIME.


...CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING BACK INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN CA THAT SHOULD EJECT EAST AND THEN SHEAR
OUT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IN KEEPING
WITH CONTINUITY.


...SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA ON FRI...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TO TRACK INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURS...ATOP A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE
00Z UKMET HANGS ONTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA. THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SHEARED/FLAT WAVE THAT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE WELL CLUSTERED
AND A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$





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