Text Products for AFD Issued by HNX

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
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FXUS66 KHNX 191930
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1230 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada
this afternoon into this evening.

2. Strong northwest wind gusts are expected in the Mojave Desert
Slopes this afternoon into early Saturday morning.

3. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values today
through Monday.

4. A cooling trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak upper wave continues to move across the southern half of
California this afternoon. It is expected to produce mostly high
cloudiness. The threat for thunderstorms remains from the
foothills up into the higher elevations of the Sierra. The
probability of thunderstorms and lightning potential remains in
the 5-15% range for the higher elevations this afternoon and
evening. The wave will tighten up the gradient along the slopes
of the Kern County Desert later this afternoon lasting into the
overnight hours. The impacts are expected to high profile
vehicles and blowing dust in channeled areas.

Saturday features zonal flow for the Golden State for a fair
weather day with temperatures continuing above normal. Over the
central section of the Sierra mainly in the vicinity of Sequoia
and Kings Canyon National Park can expect some cumulus builds in
the afternoon. The convective parameters are very weak thus will
keep the potential of thunderstorms out of the forecast.

Sunday through late Monday the ridge holds in over the region
allowing temperatures to slide up a few degrees for the region
to 10-15 degrees above normals as the norm. Monday has the best
PoE values of making the 90 mark. Here are the PoE values of 90
degrees for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert:

Merced          2%                Madera                11%
Fresno         36%                Reedley                6%
Lemoore NAS    31%                Hanford               26%
Visalia        26%                Porterville           26%
Delano         41%                Bakersfield           36%
Edwards AFB    36%                China Lake NAF        76%

An upper level low the Gulf of Alaska will have a wave break off
from it this weekend and that piece will slide southeast and
form into a new upper low by Tuesday off shore. The upper low
opens up on Wednesday and beings to impact the southern half of
California with temperatures sliding back to near normal and the
introduction of mountain showers and thunderstorms.

Next Thursday and Friday another upper low from the Panhandle of
Alaska meets up with the upper trough and carves out a deep
trough over the West Coast. This forms path for upper level
energy to continue spill south from the land of the midnight sun
into the base of the trough over the southwestern US. This
keeps the risk of mountain showers going and near normal
temperatures for the region. The chance of significant
impactful weather is very minimal.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR. VFR cumulus this afternoon is expect along with high
cloudiness. Very ISOL TS over the Sierra remains possible with
probabilities less than 15% from 21Z-02Z. Kern County Desert may
experience reduced visibilities with some blowing dust in the
23Z-12Z time frame.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/18/2024 14:51
EXPIRES: 04/19/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Saturday
for CAZ338.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather....Proton
IDSS/PIO....BSO

weather.gov/hanford
National Weather Service National Headquarters
