NOAA

National Weather Service National Headquarters

National Weather Service

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 181815
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1115 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Maximum temperatures will climb to around seven to ten degrees
above normal today.

2. Little change in maximum temperatures is expected Friday
through Monday.

3. The warmer weather will not cause hydrological concerns due
to snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.

4. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the Sierra Nevada
on Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery shows a band of mainly cirrus pushing
inland over Southern California and into southern portions of
our forecast area. Otherwise, warm and dry conditions prevail
today due to high pressure ridging in control with highs topping
near ten degrees above seasonal averages. Probabilities of
highs of at least 83 degrees in the warmest areas are about 50
to 80 percent. Similar probabilities correspond to these
temperatures in the Kern County desert, although with a 40
percent chance of reaching above 87 degrees towards the Indian
Wells Valley.

Latest ensemble data continue to show above average temperatures
persisting into early next week, though little change from
today. For example, probabilities of highs at least 83 degrees
in the Central Valley are still about 40 to 70 percent from
Friday until Monday. At any rate, we`re not anticipating
unseasonably warm temperatures. There will be some weakening in
the upper-level ridging along with a shortwave trough passing
over Southern CA on Friday. So, this feature combined with
daytime heating will produce at least more cumulus cloud
buildups and a slight chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms
over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Flat upper-
level ridging returns for the weekend, so we are not looking at
a daily repeat of afternoon convection over the Sierra at this
time, although some cumulus cloud buildups remain a possibility.

By the middle of next week, ridging breaks down and gives way to
a troughing pattern which will allow for a return of cooler
temperatures and a slight chance of higher elevation rain and
snow showers on Wednesday and next Thursday. This may be the
beginning of an unsettled pattern that lasts beyond our seven
day forecast period, per the Climate Prediction Center`s
outlooks, as well as latest deterministic and ensemble guidance.

&&


.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local IFR visibility in San Joaquin Valley
during 11Z-15Z Friday due to mist/fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected across the Central CA interior for at least the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire wx...BSO
PIO/IDSS..................Proton

weather.gov/hanford