Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 191020
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH IS DRY FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...IT IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. AS OF 0915Z /0215 PDT/ THIS MORNING...WINDS CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER OVER THE PIUTES AND THE INDIAN WELLS
VALLEY INCLUDING RIDGECREST...AND ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH NEAR
THE CREST OF THE PIUTES AT BIRD SPRINGS PASS. THE NAM-12 SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PIUTES PULLING A LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TOWARD THE
CREST...AND WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE HIGH-ELEVATION PASSES AND
CANYONS LIKELY ARE THE CAUSE OF THE HIGH WINDS AT BIRD SPRINGS PASS
AS THESE WINDS ARE NOT BEING SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH...WITH GUSTS
DECREASING A BIT AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING BACK ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH 12Z /0500
PDT/ THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS OF
09Z /0200 PDT/ THIS MORNING WERE AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24
HOURS EARLIER AS COLDER AIR FILLS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WITH A
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE KEEPING
TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY...WITH THE 500-MB 5820-METER HEIGHT LINE OVER
THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY /1700 PDT THURSDAY/.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY...AND TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND A LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHORT-WAVE WILL BRING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE
AND AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE SEVEN-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING
JUNE 21ST AND EXTENDING THE RECORD OF IT NEVER HAVING RAINED IN
FRESNO ON A JUNE 21ST SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1878. THIS
IS THE ONLY DAY FOR FRESNO NEVER TO HAVE SEEN ANY RAIN IN THE
HISTORY OF WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

NOTE...SUMMER BEGINS ON JUNE 20TH AT 2204 PDT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN PASSES AND AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-19      106:1962     72:1897     75:1918     51:1893
KFAT 06-20      110:1920     78:1897     75:1918     50:1908
KFAT 06-21      110:2008     77:1944     75:2008     51:1912

KBFL 06-19      107:1947     75:1923     75:1988     43:1913
KBFL 06-20      113:1920     82:1944     79:1981     47:1913
KBFL 06-21      110:2008     75:1944     77:1981     46:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER/PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD