Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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CAC019-029-031-039-043-047-107-232300-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
400 PM PDT MON MAY 23 2016

...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
WFO HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA...

SYNOPSIS...

ON JANUARY 17TH 2014...GOVERNOR BROWN DECLARED A DROUGHT EMERGENCY
FOR THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA. ON APRIL 25TH 2014...THE GOVERNOR
SIGNED AN EMERGENCY DROUGHT PROCLAMATION. ON SEPTEMBER 16TH 2014...
GOVERNOR BROWN SIGNED LEGISLATION THAT REGULATES GROUNDWATER FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN CALIFORNIA/S HISTORY.

ON MARCH 24TH 2015...FRESNO COUNTY DECLARED A DROUGHT EMERGENCY.

ON MARCH 21ST 2016...PRESIDENT OBAMA ISSUED A MEMORANDUM TO ENSURE
THAT ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT...STATE...LOCAL AND FEDERAL...
COLLABORATE WITH EACH OTHER TO ENABLE PRODUCTIVE AND WORKABLE
SOLUTIONS TO REDUCE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT AND
BUILD RESILIENCE TO IT.

ON MAY 9TH 2016...GOVERNOR BROWN REVISED STATE WATER CONSERVATION
MEASURES TO ALLOW COUNTY...CITY AND LOCAL OFFICIALS TO DETERMINE AND
ESTABLISH WATER CONSERVATION RULES BASED ON REGIONAL IMPACTS FROM
THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. THE EXECUTIVE ORDER ISSUED BY THE GOVERNOR
PERMANENTLY BANNED WASTEFUL WATER PRACTICES AND MADE REGULATORS
RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING NEW WATER EFFICIENCY STANDARDS DESIGNED
TO DRIVE DOWN LONG TERM URBAN USE. ULTIMATELY THIS EXECUTIVE ORDER
AIMS TO MAKE WATER CONSERVATION A WAY OF LIFE FOR CALIFORNIANS.
THE DAYS WHEN CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS COULD USE AS MUCH WATER AS THEY
PLEASED ARE OVER. ADDITIONALLY...THE STATE WATER RESOURCES CONTROL
BOARD RECOMMENDED CHANGES TO EMERGENCY DROUGHT RULES THAT WOULD
ALLOW COMMUNITIES AROUND THE STATE TO RELAX OR EVEN DROP MANDATORY
CONSERVATION TARGETS THAT HAVE BEEN IN EFFECT SINCE JULY 2014.

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR /MAY 19TH 2016/ DEPICTS EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS /CATEGORY 3/...IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT IN ADDITION TO
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD. THE REST OF THE WFO HANFORD COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS /CATEGORY 4/.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT MEDIA COVERAGE ON THE ON-GOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THESE REPORTS INCLUDE A CONTINUATION OF STRICT WATER CONSERVATION
MEASURES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOCAL...STATE...AND
NATIONAL NEWS STORIES ABOUT DRY WELLS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE EXCESSIVE GROUNDWATER
DRAWDOWN HAS LEAD TO ARSENIC AND NITRATE CONTAMINATION AT SPECIFIC DEPTHS.
TULARE COUNTY HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY HARD HIT BY THE ABOVE IMPACTS AND
CONTINUES TO RECEIVE CDAA FUNDING FOR DEEPER WELL DRILLING AND REPLACEMENT
OF TOILET FACILITIES.

THE MOST SEVERE IMPACTS OF THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY PART OF TULARE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF NEW DRY
WELLS HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEVERAL WELLS STILL
REMAIN DRY AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THOSE WELLS HAVE WATER CONTAMINATION.
RESIDENTS THAT LIVE IN THE MORE IMPOVERISHED COMMUNITIES SUCH AS ALPAUGH
AND EAST PORTERVILLE HAVE TO RELY ON DELIVERIES OF BOTTLED WATER AND OTHER
ASSISTANCE RELIEF PROGRAMS TO SUPPLY WATER FOR BATHING AND COOKING. CALFIRE
AND CDF CONTINUE THEIR ONGOING EFFORTS TO REMOVE HUNDREDS OF TREES KILLED
BY PROLONGED DROUGHT AND BEETLE INFESTATION IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA.

PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WHERE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

AS OF MAY 23RD...THE PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL SNOWPACK OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
WAS 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE SIERRA SNOWPACK IS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW SEASONS TO DATE...IT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND MELTING
FAST. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...MOST OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF KERN COUNTY HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME RECHARGE FROM MELTING SNOW OVER THE
HIGH SIERRA DURING THE PAST MONTH. TO DATE...WATER CAPACITIES HAVE INCREASED
TO 63 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT FRIANT DAM AND SUCCESS DAM AND AS HIGH AS 76 PERCENT
OF NORMAL AT TERMINUS DAM. WHILE THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER
LEVELS SINCE APRIL 15TH...IT IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF
MAY. NONETHELESS...THE CURRENT WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK IS MORE PROMISING THAN THE
PAST FOUR YEARS TO DATE. ALTHOUGH THIS LESSENS THE SEVERITY OF THE DROUGHT IN
THE SHORT TERM...THE BENEFITS ARE SMALL WHEN COMPARED TO THE OVERALL LONG TERM
IMPACTS OF THE DROUGHT. AS A RESULT...NO CATEGORICAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION STATUS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS MONTH.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

PRECIPITATION...

FOR THE CURRENT WATER YEAR OF OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 22ND...FRESNO RECEIVED
14.23 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS 3.23 INCHES ABOVE THE AVERAGE THROUGH MAY 22ND
OF 11.00 INCHES. THE WETTEST WATER YEAR TO DATE IN FRESNO FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 22ND WAS IN 1969 WITH A TOTAL OF 22.94 INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR THE CURRENT WATER YEAR OF OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 22ND...BAKERSFIELD
RECEIVED 5.42 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS 0.82 INCHES BELOW THE AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH MAY 22ND OF 6.24 INCHES. THE WETTEST WATER YEAR TO DATE IN BAKERSFIELD
FOR THE PERIOD OF OCTOBER 1ST THROUGH MAY 22ND WAS IN 1998 WITH A TOTAL OF
OF 14.28 INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR APRIL...FRESNO REPORTED 1.06 INCHES OF RAIN. THE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL IN FRESNO IS 0.95 INCHES.

FOR APRIL...BAKERSFIELD REPORTED 0.97 INCHES OF RAIN. THE NORMAL RAINFALL
FOR THE MONTH OF ARPIL IN BAKERSFIELD IS 0.52 INCHES.

TEMPERATURE...

FOR APRIL...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN FRESNO WAS 65.3 DEGREES...WHICH WAS
3.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR APRIL...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN BAKERSFIELD WAS 66.9 DEGREES...WHICH
WAS 4.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

YEAR TO DATE...FOR THE FIRST 143 DAYS OF 2016 /JANUARY 1ST THROUGH MAY 22ND/...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN FRESNO WAS 59.3 DEGREES WHICH IS THE 5TH WARMEST
FIRST 143 DAYS ON RECORD. THE WARMEST FIRST 143 DAYS IN FRESNO OCCURRED IN
2014 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 61.8 DEGREES.

FOR THE FIRST 143 DAYS OF 2016 /JANUARY 1ST THROUGH MAY 22ND/...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN BAKERSFIELD WAS 60.9 DEGREES WHICH IS THE 2ND WARMEST FIRST
143 DAYS ON RECORD...TIED WITH 1978 AND 2015. THE WARMEST FIRST 143 DAYS IN
BAKERSFIELD OCCURRED IN 2014 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 61.9 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED MAY 23RD FORECASTS
A 35 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FORECASTS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS...BASED ON DATA FROM THE
CURRENT STATE OF THE OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH CLIMATE MODELS...FROM
THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

FOR THE THREE-MONTH PERIOD...JUNE-JULY-AUGUST...THE OUTLOOK FAVORS A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...
BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
/SEE LINKS BELOW/.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS RESIDED ALONG THE WEST COAST SINCE
MAY 20TH AND BROUGHT COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MAY 26TH.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME BEFORE RECOVERING
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SNOWMELT...WHICH HAS LATELY
BEEN SLOWED BY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO RECHARGE AREA
RESERVOIRS WITH AT LEAST MODEST INCREASES IN WATER LEVELS DURING THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE EL NINO HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND
IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEUTRAL BY EARLY SUMMER. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT A LA NINA PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY THE FALL OF 2016. THIS LONG RANGE
PROJECTION IS NOT AT ALL ENCOURAGING FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED SNOWMELT DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WILL HELP RAISE WATER
LEVELS IN THE RESERVOIRS WHICH IN TURN WILL AID WATER SUPPLY NEEDS FOR
AGRICULTURE AND SUSTAINMENT OF LIFE THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS FOR RESIDENTS
OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE FORECAST OF LA NINA CONDITIONS
THIS FALL THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON INTO 2017 COULD ONLY EXACERBATE THE LONG
TERM DROUGHT OVER CALIFORNIA.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...23 JUNE 2016...OR EARLIER IF CONDITIONS CHANGE.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER: HTTP://CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/
DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD: HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/HNX/
WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER: HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
WESTERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY -HANFORD
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
CALIFORNIA OFFICE OF EMERGENCY SERVICES
U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION
CAL FIRE
THE LOS ANGELES TIMES /WWW.LATIMES.COM/

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO
W-HNX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

DURFEE/OCHS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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