Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 102046
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 00Z THU FEB 11 2016 - 00Z SUN FEB 14 2016


DAYS 1-3...

...GREAT LAKES...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.  LOCALLY
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
U.P. AND NORTHWESTERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON DAY 1 (LATE
WED-LATE THU).  BY DAY 2 (LATE THU-LATE FRI)...THE MEAN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW DROPPING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY -- SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE LOWER LAKES
AND FURTHER TO THE EAST ALONG THE U.P.  ON DAY 3 (LATE FRI-LATE
SAT)...THE MEAN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN TURN THE NORTHWEST
AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW...PIVOTING
ACROSS THE LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUING ITS SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK...REACHING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAYS 2-3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO FUEL THE ONSET OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WA ON DAY 2 (LATE
THU-LATE FRI).  HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH DAY 2...CONFINING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO
THE HIGHER REACHES OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  HEAVY SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON DAY 3 (LATE FRI-LATE SAT) AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SPREADS
INLAND...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S.  HEAVY SNOWS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
OLYMPICS...NORTHERN CASCADES AND THE ROCKIES OF NORTHERN ID AND
NORTHWESTERN MT.

DAY 3...

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR..MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LEADING ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SAT.

...NEW ENGLAND COAST...

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY PIVOTING SOUTH OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WAVE ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM A LOW TRACKING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP FOCUS SOME MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS...OR IN THE VICINITY OF DOWNEAST
MAINE ON SAT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$




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