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000
FXUS64 KHUN 202306 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
CLOUD COVER WAS RATHER SLOW TO CLR/EXIT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG FETCH OF SLY INFLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING
ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN...ANY SUBSEQUENT CLEARING HEADING
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD MAY BE SHORT LIVED...WITH A SLY/SWLY GULF
INFLOW PREVAILING INTO TUE. WEAK UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID WX CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TUE...AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE W/SW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON TEMPS
TUE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
DEPTH EVOLVING ON TUE...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SFC WAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS. IN ANY CASE...THE BULK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD AND DIVERGE TUE NIGHT...WITH THE SRN
STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT...AND THEN GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT/INTO WED. THE FRONT ITSELF
SHOULD THEN MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
THEN TAPERING OFF THU AS THE FRONT WEAKENS/EXITS TO THE E.

SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE LATEST MODEL SUITES REMAIN WITH THE
COVERAGE/EXTENT OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. GENERAL CONSENSUS THOUGH
WOULD KEEP POPS IN THE SCT CAT...MAINLY WED AND WED NIGHT. WHILE THE
DYNAMICS/FORCING ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT LOOK TO WEAKEN/SHEAR TO
THE NE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE
TO WARRANT THE PROB FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY OF THE TSTMS INTO WED NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REINFORCING SURGE
OF MOD POLAR AIR DIVING SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREAS FRI.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD INTO THE REGION AROUND THE START
OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO RESULT IN QUIET AND MORE SEASONAL
LIKE CONDITIONS/TEMPS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. STRONG UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL AID IN THE RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FORMS ACROSS THE REGION MON.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT HSV AND MSL. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE BETWEEN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME AT MSL...WHERE A
TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY WAS ADDED IN DUE TO EXPECTED POSSIBILITY THAT
FOG COULD FORM. EXPECT A SCATTERED DECK OF CUMULUS AT AROUND 4KFT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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