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000
FXUS64 KHUN 151029 CCA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED W TO E
ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS
XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE
REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE E AND WEAKEN. THE WEAKENING RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST CHANGE IN THE PREVAILING WX
CONDITIONS...AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID/SRN
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED POCKETS OF ENERGY TRAVERSING EWD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE PROB FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH THU
AND FRI. WITH THE SFC HIGH REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS THE SRN
ATLANTIC BASIN...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE LIKE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG ANY
PASSING UPPER WAVES. NOT MUCH IS XPCTED TO CHANGE WITH THIS GENERAL
PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE TRANSPORT FLOW
ALOFT TRENDING MORE OUT OF THE WNW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO FINALLY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
WSW AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW DERIVED
FROM NRN PLAINS SYSTEM...APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES THOUGH MAINTAIN THE SFC HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE NE
GULF WELL INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT SEWD. UPPER FORCING THOUGH INCREASING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EWD SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING INTO
MID WEEK. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CERTAINLY DICTATE
THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF HIGHER POP/QPF VALUES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
FOR NOW THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...DUE
TO SW WINDS NEARING 50KT 2-3KFT AGL. THESE WINDS AT/ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW LLWS CRITERIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WED. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THIS PERIOD.
5-10KT SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-20KT BY 15Z. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND DUSK.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    86  62  83  62 /   0  10  30  10
SHOALS        86  61  84  62 /   0  10  30  10
VINEMONT      84  59  81  59 /   0  10  30  10
FAYETTEVILLE  83  60  81  60 /   0  10  30  10
ALBERTVILLE   83  59  81  57 /   0  10  30  10
FORT PAYNE    85  56  82  54 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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