Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 240830
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Upper level ridging will persist today, but begin to shift
eastward tonight. Winds will shift to be southeasterly this
morning, with some breezy conditions throughout the day.
Additionally, as the surface high pressure pushes east of the
region, cloud cover will be on the increase this afternoon. This
may limit how warm temperatures get, but highs are forecast to
reach the mid to upper 60s. As moisture increases tonight with the
approach of our next storm system, lows will likely only drop
into the upper 40s to lower 50s west of I-65 and into the lower to
upper 40s east. Winds will also start to increase late tonight
but will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, at least until
Monday (discussed below).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A deep, almost CONUS-wide trough will be present aloft early next
week. Models indicate an upper shortwave will progress northeast
along this flow over the region Monday evening through Tuesday as
well. A surface low pressure system over the central CONUS Monday
morning will make its way northeastward over the Great Lakes
through midweek, with a trailing cold front traversing the
Southeast Monday night through Tuesday. Model guidance suggests
that another surface low may form over Lousiana and Mississippi
and travel along this front through Georgia during this time.

Overall, rain and storm chances increase late Monday afternoon
and into the early evening from the west. High chances (70-100%)
overspread the region by late Monday night and into Tuesday
morning. The system will then make its way east through the day,
with rain chances dwindling Tuesday night. When looking at the
potential for any severe weather, guidance continues to show stout
shear over the region Monday evening and overnight, with bulk
shear values between 70-80 knots. Surface instability is very
limited Monday evening and overnight, but does increase to be
around 500 J/kg or less during the day on Tuesday. However, the
warm sector will likely be well to our south. Ultimately,
confidence in the occurrence of severe weather is low; however,
with such strong shear, ample moisture, and lift in place, a
strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. The main threat would be
gusty to damaging winds, should any strong storms form. Although,
we are not outlooked in any risk for severe weather from the Storm
Prediction Center at this time.

The main concerns with this system will be gradient winds (non-
thunderstorm winds) and locally heavy rainfall. Trends continue to
hone in on winds increasing through the day Monday and especially
by Monday evening, as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind gusts
could reach between 40-50 mph area-wide Monday evening. A Wind
Advisory is therefore in effect from 1 PM CDT Monday afternoon
through 7 AM CDT Tuesday morning. Take caution when traveling and
secure loose outdoor items! Additionally, model PWATs range
between 1.2-1.4 inches, which are on par with or just above the
90th percentile when looking at BMX Sounding Climatology. This
means showers/storms will be efficient rainfall producers. At this
time, forecast storm total rainfall ranges mostly between 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts possible. The western portion
of our area (along/west of I-65) is where higher rainfall amounts
are more likely. This coincides with where The Weather Prediction
Center has outlooked a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. Turn
around, don`t drown if you encounter flooded roads!

Through the short term, highs will generally range from the lower
to upper 60s, with areas west of I-65 possibly warming into the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be warm,
in the 50s, due to elevated moisture and rain chances. Expect
cooler lows by Tuesday night (temperatures in the 40s) after the
system departs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Once the aforementioned system progresses to the east, surface
high pressure will take hold over the southeastern CONUS and
persist through the first part of next weekend. No rain is
anticipated during this time. High temperatures will be on a
warming trend, increasing from the 60s on Thursday to the lower to
mid 70s on Saturday. We may even see upper 70s the last day of
March! Lows are expected to start out in the mid to upper 30s for
Wednesday and Thursday nights, with possible frost late Thursday
night. However, expect lows to follow a similar warming trend
through the end of March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as VFR conditions will persist at the HSV/MSL terminals
during the early morning hours. However, a gradual increase in
the coverage of high clouds is expected to occur prior to 12Z,
with an overcast layer of cirrostratus expected for much of the
day and into Sunday evening. NNE sfc winds will continue to
subside and veer to ENE during the early morning hours, before
shifting to SE by 15Z and strengthening into the 10G18 knot range.
LLWS may become a concern (particularly after 24/3Z) as the
southerly low-lvl jet increases to 30-40 knots across the TN
Valley.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ001>010-016.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ076-
     096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...70


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