253
FXUS64 KHUN 290528
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This evening, water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough
across the Plains with a line of severe storms along its eastern
extent from Arkansas southward into eastern Texas. As these
storms push further ahead of the trough axis, a weakening trend is
expected as they outrun the better instability and forcing.
Closer to home, cirrus clouds from these storms will continue to
stream in from the west overnight. With mostly clouds skies in
place, a mild night is in store with forecast morning lows only
dipping down into the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

As the potent Plains upper trough lifts northeast, shortwaves in
the southern stream extension of this mean trough will cross the
lower MS valley Monday into Monday night. The surface cold front
will be dissipating as this wave moves across, but there is a high
chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, especially Monday
night into Tuesday morning. CAPE is low and shear will be low to
moderate at most, so not expecting strong or severe storms. Rain
amounts of 0.5-0.75 inches are projected, but this is a bit
optimistic based on differing models solutions splitting two main
rain areas to our north and southwest potentially. Temperatures
will remain on the seasonably warm side, with lower 80s Monday and
upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. With mid and upper level
ridging moving in on Wednesday, temperatures should reach the
lower to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper ridging will build into the Oh River Valley and northeast along
the Atlantic Coast through the second half of the work week, and will
keep temperatures on the warm side. Daily highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s, with very low (10-20%) chances for diurnal showers/storms
each afternoon through Thursday. By Friday, an upper low will pivot
from the Central Plains and into the upper Midwest, and a cold
front will push east, approaching the MS River Valley. As synoptic
lift increases ahead of this front, rain and storm chances will
increase to around 40-50% during the day on Friday and into Friday
night. Rain chances over the weekend will depend on the strength
of the ridge over the Gulf and southern Atlantic coast, which
could stall the sfc front just to our south early Saturday before
it lifts back north. This would support additional showers and
storms through the weekend, so have stuck with blended guidance
for PoPs (40-50%) at this range. Temperatures will cool but only
slightly Friday and Saturday, with highs near the low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight period
and during the day tomorrow, with gusty south/southeasterly winds
picking up during the day. SSE wind shear as high as 35-40kts at
2kft is forecast through the early afternoon hours. Rain and
shower chances will increase from west to east between 20-00z, and
reductions to MVFR conditions will be possible during this time.
Expect rain and thunderstorms to persist through the end of the
TAF period.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25