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000
FXUS64 KHUN 172005
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FCST SHAPING UP WITH TIMING/COVERAGE OF PCPN FOR THIS
WEEKEND...NOT TO MENTION TEMPS AND TIMING OF A CDFNT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN/EVENING...A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF WILL
HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT LARGE
HAIL...LOCALIZED HVY RAIN/FLOODING AND A FEW WEAK TORNADOES. THE SVR
WX THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF.

SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF WILL BE ALONG THE AL/GA LINE
ARND 12Z. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE ARND 8H WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THE AFTN. HOWEVER BY LATE AFTN/EVENING THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.

SUNDAY...THINKING THAT MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING THE CHC OF PCPN SINCE
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. ANYHOW WILL KEEP LOW
POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN HOURS ONLY. RIDGING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH BY
THE NIGHT TO REMOVE THE CHC OF PCPN.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP OFF BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK BUT FOR NOW...THINKING THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY WARM TEMPS...HIGHS NEAR 90.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROF/CDFNT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE CWA WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA. ATTM THE GFS HAS THE CDFNT MOVING THRU
THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE CDFNT IS PROGGED BY GFS TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE TN
VALLEY WITH A LITTLE COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS.



07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
9-10 HOURS AS MID LEVEL BASED (080-120 CIGS) SHRA CONTINUE. TSRA ARE
DEVELOPING FURTHER SW OVER CENTRAL MS AND THESE TSRA ALONG WITH MORE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS IN
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA BTWN 19-01Z THAT REDUCE
CIG TO MVFR. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 01Z, BUT IS DIFFICULT
TO TIME AT THIS POINT. A DROP IN CIG TO MVFR IS THEN LIKELY AFTER 04Z
AS SFC MOISTURE INCREASES.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  83  66  88 /  80  60  30  20
SHOALS        67  84  67  87 /  70  40  20  20
VINEMONT      66  83  67  87 /  80  50  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  64  81  64  85 /  80  60  30  30
ALBERTVILLE   65  82  66  86 /  80  60  40  30
FORT PAYNE    62  82  65  86 /  80  60  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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