Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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781 FXUS64 KHUN 290711 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low shifting east through South Dakota and several convective bands of strong/severe thunderstorms along the mid and southern MS River Valley. Strong WAA will continue ahead of this system, and we can expect an increase in upper cloud cover and deep moisture through the day today. Overall, trends have slowed with the arrival of rain and storms later today, now keeping a dry forecast through the afternoon for areas along and east of I-65, with low to medium (20-50%) chances for storms west of I-65. Increasing clouds will keep highs limited to the low to mid 80s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Heavy rain and storms will move in overnight ahead of a cold front and as the aforementioned upper low continues to turn north through MN. With PWATs forecast to be between 1.5-1.7", rainfall amounts have increased a bit over the past 24 hours. An axis of heavier rainfall is forecast to set up near the I-65 corridor, where amounts could total up to 2.75". Outside of this heavier rain axis, expect amounts closer to 0.75-2" with the heaviest rainfall expected overnight tonight. With the grounds relatively dry, do not expect widespread flooding to be an issue overnight into Tuesday morning, but WPC has outlined the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Will continue to monitor trends in case amounts continue to increase, but it does not appear any flood related headlines are needed as of now. With the better thermodynamics to our south, these storms should remain below severe limits as the system shifts east. Expect rain to come to an end from west to east late Tuesday morning into the afternoon, with clearing skies and temps in the upper 70s. Winds will calm overnight Tuesday, and combined with clear skies could be a good setup for patchy fog. High pressure will settle over the area Wednesday, keeping us rain free and warm as highs rise into the mid 80s on Wednesday. Will have to watch for fog again Wednesday night as conditions look favorable, but will wait until closer in range to include any fog in the official forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 An upper ridge pattern will continue to translate eastward into the mid/southern Atlantic states heading into the end of the work week. High pressure at the sfc will also remain layered from the NE states into the Carolinas, resulting in afternoon highs climbing predom into the mid 80s/near 80F both Thu/Fri. An upper trough axis will also be rotating eastward thru the mid/northern Plains, with an attendant sfc low lifting NE into the Great Lakes area. This sfc wave will help drag a cold front eastward thru the Midwest/Mid South regions well into the day Fri. Low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) will develop along/ahead of the oncoming cold front late Thu into Fri. Sct showers/tstms will then continue into the first half of the weekend, as the frontal boundary moves SE thru the central TN Valley. Low chances for showers/tstms (20-30%) will also linger thru the second half of the weekend period, as the broad upper trough pattern moves eastward across the region. Minimal low-level convergence/instability coupled with better dynamic forcing displayed N/W of the area should offset the prob for more organized/stronger tstms, with QPF totals around 0.25-0.50 inches thru the upcoming weekend. Seasonably warm temps will continue Sat/Sun, with highs mainly in the lower 80s/near 80F, while overnight trends predom in the upper 50s/mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight period and during the day tomorrow, with gusty south/southeasterly winds picking up during the day. SSE wind shear as high as 35-40kts at 2kft is forecast through the early afternoon hours. Rain and shower chances will increase from west to east between 20-00z, and reductions to MVFR conditions will be possible during this time. Expect rain and thunderstorms to persist through the end of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...25