781
FXUS64 KHUN 290711
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Early morning satellite imagery shows an upper low shifting east
through South Dakota and several convective bands of strong/severe
thunderstorms along the mid and southern MS River Valley. Strong
WAA will continue ahead of this system, and we can expect an
increase in upper cloud cover and deep moisture through the day
today. Overall, trends have slowed with the arrival of rain and
storms later today, now keeping a dry forecast through the
afternoon for areas along and east of I-65, with low to medium
(20-50%) chances for storms west of I-65. Increasing clouds will
keep highs limited to the low to mid 80s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Heavy rain and storms will move in overnight ahead of a cold front
and as the aforementioned upper low continues to turn north
through MN. With PWATs forecast to be between 1.5-1.7", rainfall
amounts have increased a bit over the past 24 hours. An axis of
heavier rainfall is forecast to set up near the I-65 corridor,
where amounts could total up to 2.75". Outside of this heavier
rain axis, expect amounts closer to 0.75-2" with the heaviest
rainfall expected overnight tonight. With the grounds relatively
dry, do not expect widespread flooding to be an issue overnight
into Tuesday morning, but WPC has outlined the area in a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Will
continue to monitor trends in case amounts continue to increase,
but it does not appear any flood related headlines are needed as
of now.

With the better thermodynamics to our south, these storms should
remain below severe limits as the system shifts east. Expect rain
to come to an end from west to east late Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, with clearing skies and temps in the upper 70s. Winds
will calm overnight Tuesday, and combined with clear skies could
be a good setup for patchy fog. High pressure will settle over the
area Wednesday, keeping us rain free and warm as highs rise into
the mid 80s on Wednesday. Will have to watch for fog again
Wednesday night as conditions look favorable, but will wait until
closer in range to include any fog in the official forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

An upper ridge pattern will continue to translate eastward into the
mid/southern Atlantic states heading into the end of the work week.
High pressure at the sfc will also remain layered from the NE states
into the Carolinas, resulting in afternoon highs climbing predom into
the mid 80s/near 80F both Thu/Fri. An upper trough axis will also be
rotating eastward thru the mid/northern Plains, with an attendant sfc
low lifting NE into the Great Lakes area. This sfc wave will help
drag a cold front eastward thru the Midwest/Mid South regions well
into the day Fri. Low-medium chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) will
develop along/ahead of the oncoming cold front late Thu into Fri. Sct
showers/tstms will then continue into the first half of the weekend,
as the frontal boundary moves SE thru the central TN Valley. Low
chances for showers/tstms (20-30%) will also linger thru the second
half of the weekend period, as the broad upper trough pattern moves
eastward across the region. Minimal low-level convergence/instability
coupled with better dynamic forcing displayed N/W of the area should
offset the prob for more organized/stronger tstms, with QPF totals
around 0.25-0.50 inches thru the upcoming weekend. Seasonably warm
temps will continue Sat/Sun, with highs mainly in the lower 80s/near
80F, while overnight trends predom in the upper 50s/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight period
and during the day tomorrow, with gusty south/southeasterly winds
picking up during the day. SSE wind shear as high as 35-40kts at
2kft is forecast through the early afternoon hours. Rain and
shower chances will increase from west to east between 20-00z, and
reductions to MVFR conditions will be possible during this time.
Expect rain and thunderstorms to persist through the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25