000
FXUS64 KHUN 151147
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
647 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LAYERED W TO E
ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS
XPCTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE
REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE E AND WEAKEN. THE WEAKENING RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST CHANGE IN THE PREVAILING WX
CONDITIONS...AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID/SRN
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED POCKETS OF ENERGY TRAVERSING EWD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE PROB FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH THU
AND FRI. WITH THE SFC HIGH REMAINING FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS THE SRN
ATLANTIC BASIN...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE LIKE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG ANY
PASSING UPPER WAVES. NOT MUCH IS XPCTED TO CHANGE WITH THIS GENERAL
PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WITH THE TRANSPORT FLOW
ALOFT TRENDING MORE OUT OF THE WNW.

THE OVERALL PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO FINALLY CHANGE HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE SE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE
WSW AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW DERIVED
FROM NRN PLAINS SYSTEM...APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL SUITES THOUGH MAINTAIN THE SFC HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE NE
GULF WELL INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT SEWD. UPPER FORCING THOUGH INCREASING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EWD SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING INTO
MID WEEK. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CERTAINLY DICTATE
THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF HIGHER POP/QPF VALUES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
FOR NOW THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE MSL/HSV AIRPORTS
TODAY...ALONG WITH A SW WIND OF 12G20 KNOTS. CI CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
BKN/OVC DECKS OF AS/CS ANTICIPATED BY MID-EVENING. A LOWER LAYER OF
STRATOCU WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND 4 KFT THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT MAY ONLY BECOME SCT/BKN AT MSL BY END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BACK TO SSW AND
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.