000
FXUS64 KHUN 182332 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 IN SOME AREAS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SEWD
INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC REGION...AND IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN/NE AL. THE COVERAGE THOUGH HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SCT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LIFTING TO THE NE. LATENT HEATING
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON A GENERAL DECLINE FROM W TO E AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD.

UNSEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE STORY GOING INTO
THE NEW WEEK...AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN OUT W MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
ERN GULF...AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
LOOK REASONABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIP
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W ON SUN...AS DRIER AIR
IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/SW.

THE WX PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE OR UNSETTLED GOING PAST
MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID
PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
HAVE THIS SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WED/THU AND WEAKENING.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE XPCTED ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP THEN TAPERING OFF LATE
THU AND INTO FRI AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE E. ANY REAL COOL DOWN
THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...AS MOD POLAR AIR DIVES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AT MSL AT 23Z CONTINUED
TO INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS THERE IN
THE HIGHER END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 01Z. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 08Z...AS
THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. WILL IMPROVE
CEILINGS INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT HSV AT 15Z AND MSL AT 16Z AND KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.