000
FXUS64 KHUN 141113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST.

ATTM SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WERE RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR
NERN ZONES TO THE MID 50S ACROSS NW AL...ALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

LOOKS LIKE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THRU
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. EXPECT
AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MRNG
LOWS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ARND 60.

RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTN. WILL
REMOVE THE CHC OF PCPN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK WIND
FIELDS/INSTABILITIES THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WX LOOKS LOW ATTM
ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WILL STICK NECK OUT A LITTLE AND REMOVE PCPN FOR
THE WEEKEND...DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG SFC/UPPER RIDGING. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...BUT
COVERAGE OF PCPN LOOKS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS/ZONES ATTM.

MONDAY...AN APPROACHING SFC CDFNT/UPPER TROF WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. 8H WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE ARND 30 KTS HOWEVER INSTABILITIES ARE STILL NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. FOR NOW SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
MONDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY. HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACHING CDFNT/TROF...WILL
INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TO FAR OUT IN FCST TO PREDICT IF
ANY SVR WX IS POSSIBLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED E OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA COUPLED WITH A RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS ARE
XPCTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO AROUND 12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.