Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311919 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 319 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ELEMENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME DECENT COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD COVERAGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR THIS. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKING ON THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BASICALLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BY MY COUNT THIS IS THE FOURTH FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS JULY. WHILE PROBABLY NOT A RECORD IT CERTAINLY SEEMS UNUSUAL. THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...DRIVEN INLAND BY THE SEABREEZE AND PUSHED BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY THE LATE NIGHT LANDBREEZE. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY WILL POKE DOWN INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES...PUNCHING A HOLE THE 500 MB RIDGE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE RISE TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN 40-50 MILES OF THE COAST...VERY NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL SEABREEZE ZONE. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEACHES. FARTHER INLAND FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN INTO THE DEEP DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE CAPPING AND VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) CONVECTION. HIGHS MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST. FOR SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS...EVEN ALONG THE COAST WHERE 850-700 MB LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 50 PERCENT. HIGHS AGAIN MID 90S INLAND TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. IN TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS BETTER TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE-WISE THAN THE NAM AND HAS FEWER SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE 500 MB FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHINESS IN PLACE ON MONDAY THOUGH MODELS LOOK A BIT QUICKER IN SHUNTING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. HAVE PRESERVED THE INLAND/COASTAL GRADIENT BUT TWEAKED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO LIFT OUT A BIT FASTER ON TUESDAY SO RAINFALL MAY BE EVEN HARDER TO COME BY AND JUST ISOLATED POPS AREA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH ANY ENERGY IMPINGING UPON US FROM THE WEST TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE CAROLINAS WILL THEN END UP IN A REGIME OF INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES THAT TEND TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE HINDERED BY THE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BE RELEGATED FOR JUST AFTER THE LONG TERM. THE MIDWEEK DAYS WHEREIN A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT SHOULD FEATURE SOME HEAT BUT SEEMINGLY NOT THE VERY HOT READINGS FOUND IN THE MEX MOS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW POINTS WAS E OF A KLBT/KFLO LINE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND MOVING OFFSHORE. TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 17-19Z INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT. NW WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER CONVECTION TOWARDS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDERS OCCUR THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST TO NEAR KFLO/KLBT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND STABILIZATION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING TO NO WORSE THAN MVFR LEVELS. OVERNIGHT IF CLOUDS SCATTER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS IFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY.. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE NOW SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST AND THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OF SOUTHWEST TO REDEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK INLAND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND...PUSHED INLAND BY THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND PULLED BACK DOWN TO THE BEACHES BY THE LATE-NIGHT LANDBREEZE. IF IT WASN`T FOR THIS FRONT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WOULD PROVIDE A STEADY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE/FRONT MOVES INLAND. WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN TURN OFFSHORE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LOCAL WIND WAVES THERE WILL BE AN 11-SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE VARIOUS WAVE SETS WILL LEAD TO 2-4 FOOT SEAS THIS WEEKEND...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP DURING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS OUT BEYOND 15 MILES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY UNCHANGING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DRIVING THESE WINDS. A STRENGTHENING OF THE LATTER COULD ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB

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