Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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937 FXUS62 KILM 110512 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1212 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A QUICK MOVING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INCLUDING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE MAINTAINING A HEALTHY WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WIND SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER SLOW TEMPERATURE FALL AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ONLY DUE TO RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION RATHER THAN FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A RADIATION INVERSION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE BIG LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STREAKING SE ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AROUND 06Z (1 AM EST). MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER SUDDENLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT YOUR HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE TO SHOW A RATHER SUDDEN DROP BETWEEN 2-4 AM...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A MOISTURE STARVED AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE LOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE TO GET WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM AND THROWN BACK WESTWARD WHILE THE LOW IS STILL IN THE VICINITY OF LAND. ALSO...WE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY ON BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE... ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED AND STRONGEST AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH YOU WOULD NOT EXPECT WITH THIS TYPE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM...THERE IS A DEFINITE MOISTENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED A WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY JUST W OF THE IMMEDIATE GRAND STRAND AND WESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAPE FEAR AND LUMBERTON AREAS. IN THESE AREAS...LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH ICE PELLETS OR SNOW AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TEMPS VERY EARLY FRI MORNING...BEFORE DAYBREAK...SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE WITH THICK CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ONSHORE WIND TAKING HOLD FOR A TIME. ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD TURN TO LIGHT LIQUID RAIN DURING FRI AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS ARE CURRENTLY 20/30 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. POPS WILL BE LOWEST WEST OF I-95 AND IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH WEST OF I-95...IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT AND AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET OR ICE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS JUST A TRACE COULD MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY GROUND AND ROAD CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON GROUND TEMPS AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FRI EVE...ENDING THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND ON FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...MID 40S WELL S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. EVEN COLDER TEMPS WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY AS LARGE 1040+MB HIGH SINKS INTO IOWA. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER BUT TEMPS WILL BE HELD WAY BELOW CLIMO. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD HIGHS MAY HAVE A LARGER N/S GRADIENT THAN NORMAL WITH FAR NWRN ZONES STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 WHILE GTOWN AND WBURG `WARM` INTO THE MID 40S. THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD IF NOT THE ENTIRE WINTER. MOST PLACES ABOUT 2 DEGREES +/- 20 DEGREES. SAVING GRACE OF NOT GETTING COLDER (PER ECWMF MOS) IS THAT WINDS STAY UP AND WE DO NOT DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH A COLD START AND SHALLOW MIXING ON SUNDAY EXPECT THE COLDEST HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS ON THE RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRECLUDE SUCH COLD THOUGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED WARMING AND MOISTENING ON MONDAY AS NEXT TROUGH BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA AND THE CHILLY HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SHOULD PRECIP ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IMPLIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS) THEN THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF WINTRY P- TYPE. THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A FAIRLY ROBUST RAINFALL LOCALLY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...CONTINUED COLD WEATHER PATTERN WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6 KTS. SOME CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE OVER FLO OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. THURSDAY...CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW...NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY AND DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM...PROBABLY AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE MAINTAINING A HEALTHY WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THESE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TOWARD 30 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS ARE 3-5 FEET EXCEPT FOR A REGION OF 5-7 FOOT SEAS OFF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY/CAPE FEAR COAST WHERE A WESTERLY WIND HAS A SOMEWHAT LONGER FETCH TO WORK WITH. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THU WILL BE DROPPING FROM NEAR 20 KT EARLY TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT...TO AROUND 15 KT...AS NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACHES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW OR WNW THU...VEERING TO NE AND E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY JUST TO OUR S AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE ON A ENE TRAJECTORY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO NW FRI EVE AND FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THU MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THU AFTERNOON AND 2 FT OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT EARLY SATURDAY A BIT PINCHED BETWEEN EXITING STORM SYSTEM AND LARGE, STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. CONDITIONS COULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH PROGRESSES EAST AND WINDS UP TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF AN EASING OF THE GRADIENT. THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS HEADING INTO MONDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT COULD REALLY RAMP UP WINDS AND SEAS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON THIS EVENING. ISSUED A MWS FOR LOWER WATER LEVELS FOR THE GRAND STRAND REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL MARINE...REK/TRA/MBB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99

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