Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031904 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 304 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPED OVER GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WAS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND TROUGH WITH DEWPOINT DOWN TO THE MID 60S JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE EXITED THE HATTERAS COAST THIS MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NRN GA. WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WERE MORE NORTHERLY WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NC/VA BORDER THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A GREATER DOWNSLOPE PUSH AND WARMER TEMPS FOR OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARLBORO TO LUMBERTON AND ACROSS TO INLAND PENDER COUNTY...WITH READINGS UP ABOVE 70 MOST PLACES. THIS TROUGH ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY INLAND...BUT S-SE WINDS BEHIND SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ISO TO SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS INCREASED WITH PCP WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.9 INCHES. THIS DRIER AIR COULD BE A PLAYER IN BETTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AND WIND GUSTS IN SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING PARAMETERS POINT TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH ML CAPE UP TO 2800 AND LI -9...K INDEX 36 AND DCAPE UP TO 1100. OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH ANY OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MORE NW TO N PUSHING ANY DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES INLAND OF BEACHES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 70S TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT INDICES UP CLOSE TO 100. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRI MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN RETROGRADE AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT. THIS ANOMALOUS WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY SAT AND SAT NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THE COLUMN DOES MOISTEN UP BY FRI EVE...BUT THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE 5-9 KFT LAYER. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER AS WE MOVE FROM FRI TO SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COLUMNAR MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS NE FLOW INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS SIGNALS SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS REMAIN MIXED. HIGHER POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...AT SOME POINT...BUT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR S AND SE WILL MOVE BACK TO THE N AND W. FRI STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SAT AND HIGHS THAT DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. LOWS AROUND 70 FRI NIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL OVERHEAD SUN-TUE AS CLOSED UPPER TROUGH GETS STUCK BENEATH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE SLOWLY FILLING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA ARE NOW BEING PROGGED TO BE PUSHED MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...ENOUGH RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT AND FORCING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY...WILL CREATE STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST POP SHOULD STILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST...BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF SEEMS UNLIKELY. UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FL/GA COAST...WED/THU WILL FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPS WED/THU TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS SUN- TUE THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...PREDOMINATE VFR INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COASTAL TERMINALS AND KLBT SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION. EXPECTED COVERAGE SUGGESTS AT WORSE TEMPO CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR NOW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. WITH A FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE TERMINALS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH LACK OF HEATING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/STRATUS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IF RAINFALL OCCURS. ATTM THINK KLBT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR. AFTER SUNRISE ANY IFR AT KLBT/KFLO SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING MAINLY AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS...AND NW-N AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW AT KCRE/KMYR BY LATE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIND FLOW DOMINATED BY SEA/LAND BREEZE. EXPECT MORE OF AN ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY PUSH ABOUT 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN...BASICALLY 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A LAND BREEZE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT WITH AN OFFSHORE BIAS FRI MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FRI NIGHT AND THEN WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT AND SAT NIGHT... WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP. A MODEST NE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL BUILD TO MAINLY 3 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS LONG BAY WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY LIMITED. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST WILL CREATE NE WINDS SUN AND MON...BEFORE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A VEERING OF WIND DIRECTION TO E/SE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY/TUESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS SUNDAY...WITH 2- 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS FORMED THROUGH A 5 SEC NE WIND WAVE. SEAS WILL FALL IN TANDEM WITH THE EASING WINDS MON/TUE...BECOMING 1-3 FT ON TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ/MRR

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