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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 170008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
808 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS EVE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...MOST PREVALENT INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
THIS SCENARIO WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVEN
SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 5 KFT. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HELP PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON MORNING. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW THRESHOLD THROUGH 7 AM.

INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...AND INCREASING
COLUMNAR MOISTURE...WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A FEW PLACES COULD FIND THEIR WAY DOWN TO THE MID 60S FOR
A BRIEF TIME. THE BEACHES MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY WET WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.  COMBINING THAT WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SHOULD
YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TUESDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S
TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAKLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST GFS HAS GONE BACK TO PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH QUICKER...BUT NOT ON BOARD. THIS COULD BE DOWN TO
FEEDBACK CAUSING OVER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS THE
GFS SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD THAT THE 00Z ECMWF LACKS. LATE IN THE WEEK RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL US SLOWLY BUILDS WEST...HELPING PUSH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND BUT A LOT OF THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY FEEDBACK FROM
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT WILL FAVOR
DRYER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMS THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CU IS
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. KFLO/KLBT COULD SEE
MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA. PWAT VALUES > 2.0 INCHES AFTER 15Z
INLAND/18Z COASTAL INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
PCPN. SHOWERS/T-STORMS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS THE
SFC DESTABILIZES AND THE SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIEST
DOWNPOURS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THRU THE PERIOD...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JETTING...UP TO 25 KT...WILL ALLOW FOR A
RATHER WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WATERS. EXPECT SUSTAINED SW
WINDS AT THE SURFACE...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF WIND AND
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WAVE WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ENERGY...THE
SWELL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. A SE SWELL WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF 9 TO
10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT S TO SW FLOW INVOF 15 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH 20 KT IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT MONDAY MORNING COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
TUESDAY...WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE AT 20 NM...ESPECIALLY NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMES
VARIABLE WED NIGHT BEFORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD THU AND
FRI. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH FRONT STALLED CLOSE TO THE WATERS.
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 FT THU AND 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...BJR