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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 171341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 9:45 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE ABOUT PETERED OUT...BUT ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES COULD STILL BECOME THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:

LIGHT BUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN
DOORSTEP AT 10Z. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAY DOWN WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
AUGMENTING THIS WITH SHARPLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INTO MIDDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SFC HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE. PREVIOUS
MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS COLUMN
MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND 1.85 INCHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY CONFIRM THIS
LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO
ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK
TREND IN PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LATER TODAY...BUT BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20
AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP
OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS
THINGS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I
HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE
LETHARGIC NATURE OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE
IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE
AGAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS
PREFERRING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GFS MEAN. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY
DISSIPATES. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY
TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF CLIMATOLOGY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 12Z...AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THERE WILL BE TEMPO MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL BY TERMINALS AND ALSO NEAR
KFLO/KLBT 15-16Z. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST VCTS AT
KFLO/KLBT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/POTENTIAL AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. INLAND
CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ENDING BY LATE EVENING. SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:45 AM MONDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE
WITH A LIGHT SWLY WIND IN THE 10 KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:

3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A
MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH
SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED
MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY
IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER
END OF A 15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES
SEAS OF 2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ALBEIT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE
FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A
BERMUDA/AZORES CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE AS ANY EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK