Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 191530 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1030 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... BUT NO RAINFALL UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY SAT MORNING. MEANTIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ITS MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FELT ON SAT. MAINLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH AND THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING CLOUDY THIS EVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE SAT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS TO QUICKLY INCREASE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. STILL...WE EXPECT THE CURVE TO LEVEL OFF WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WELL N TO AROUND 60 FAR S. LOWS TONIGHT MAY STILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...BUT WILL EXAMINE THIS CLOSER AS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WET AND RAW SATURDAY STILL ON TAP AS A RATHER QUICK-HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THIS FORCING. THE ECMWF IS NOW REALLY THE ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND THUS WILL LEAN ON THE DRIER HIGH RES SREF AS WELL AS THE GFS GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE SYSTEM RACES EAST...AND DRYING BEGINS IN THE COLUMN AS EARLY AS SUNSET ON SATURDAY. WHILE TOTAL QPF WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE...STILL FEEL CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED...AND WITH THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW 40 INLAND...TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 40 AT THE COAST...AS CLOUDS LIMIT TOTAL COOLING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY...ALBEIT WITH PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. THIS DRYING COULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE MAY SPAWN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER HIGHLY...BUT THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/SREF/NAM AND IS FAVORED. ADDITIONALLY...THE FASTER SOLUTION MAKES SENSE BASED OFF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CONTINUED PACIFIC JET ENERGY AS NOTED BY WPC. THUS...WHILE WILL NOT SHOW POP/QPF AS SIGNIFICANT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/NAM...WILL BRING A RETURN OF QPF TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WELL AFTER MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS RATHER QUIET LOCALLY...PATTERN TAKES A DECIDEDLY MORE ACTIVE TURN DURING THE LAST FULL WEEK OF THE MONTH. MONDAY WILL BE WET AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...AND SLINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE NAM/SREF/CMC HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER...AND MOIST ADVECTION IS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT...SO A BUMP TO LIKELY POP IS WARRANTED. CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED NATURE. THEREAFTER...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EAST...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE OH VLY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL CWA...BUT DEEP MOIST ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL TREMENDOUS MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR EVEN TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS TUE/WED...BUT ITS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TO REALLY DETERMINE THIS POTENTIAL...WHICH IS MADE EVEN TOUGHER BY THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT. STILL...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A BIG TRAVEL DAY. STRONG CAA AND WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORM SO CHRISTMAS LOOKS DRY...BUT COLD AND WINDY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE AN ASSORTMENT OF CLOUD LAYERS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN AT FIRST...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MODERATE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY SAT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO SUN. CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM FRIDAY...NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS... INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT... BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SAT MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST DURING THE WKND...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. THIS LEAVES A PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES...AND NE WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 10-15 KTS...AT TIMES HIGHER...THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 2-4 FT MUCH OF THE WKND...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY...WHERE 1-2 FT SEAS WILL BE MORE COMMON. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AT 10-15 KTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS ON MONDAY...SETTLING ON NW AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL WEST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SW WINDS WILL RISE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 2-4 FT WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAVE GROUPS IN THE SPECTRUM. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 2 FT THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING DRAMATICALLY LATE...AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

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