Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161909 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 309 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak stalled front will dissipate tonight allowing above normal temperatures to return Sunday. A strong cold front will sweep through the area Monday night bringing chilly weather through Tuesday night. Warmer weather will develop later in the week with rain chances returning for Friday and Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The surface map shows low pressure across the area but there is very little active weather associated with this feature. Weak winds and ample low level moisture will reside across the area this afternoon and overnight as the visible satellite imagery can attest to. The only pops through Sunday arrive late in the day and mainly to the south. The primary concern is the possible development of fog, sea fog and or stratus across the area tonight that may persist briefly into the daylight hours Sunday. Overnight lows should show some consistency in the middle 50s. Same for Sunday`s highs with middle 70s expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper level disturbance crossing over the southern Baja Peninsula this afternoon will make it all the way to Georgia and South Carolina by Sunday evening, accompanied by an increase in clouds and a chance of showers. Models have yet to settle into good agreement with how far north moisture will be able to return ahead of this disturbance and uncertainty remains unusually high for an event that will occur in only 36 hours. Just like yesterday the 12z ECMWF remains the most aggressive bringing showers well north of the NC/SC state line. The 12z Canadian and especially the GFS are more suppressed with their moisture return. I don`t have any tangible reason prefer one model over another at this point and a blend with mid range PoPs (30 percent Lumberton to 60 percent Georgetown & Myrtle Beach) is probably best. Behind this upper system, a completely separate surface cold front will push southward through the area by daybreak Monday. Only a minor airmass change will accompany this frontal passage and Monday`s highs are still expected to reach well into the 60s. Things will change quickly Monday evening as a strong cold front, pushed southeastward by a powerful upper trough moving through the Mid Atlantic states, moves across the Carolinas. Forecast soundings show low level lapse rates remaining steep through the night with 25 knot (30 mph) gusts likely to mix down. Fortunately the wind should also keep a nocturnal inversion from developing and temperatures should dip no lower than the mid to upper 30s within the cold advection pattern. The center of the Canadian high is expected to move along the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Tuesday night. This may maintain enough of a pressure gradient across the Carolinas to prevent winds from dropping off to calm. Assuming this occurs, Tuesday night`s low temps could dip no lower than the upper 30s. Small differences in wind speed will have large implications for temperatures and agricultural impacts and we will continue to closely monitor forecast trends.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry weather will continue Wednesday into Thursday as Canadian high pressure weakens to our south and a weak cold front moves through from the north. A closed upper low over Arizona should begin to kick eastward Wednesday night into Thursday, approaching the Carolinas Friday. Just like in the short term, there are fairly large differences with the intensity and timing of this disturbance that will have impacts on late-week rain chances here. Surface low pressure should develop within a broad baroclinic zone across the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night into Friday, a good 12 hours later than was thought yesterday. Warm advection rains out ahead of this system could reach the Carolinas Thursday night but will become more likely on Friday. Some models (12z GFS and Canadian) show the surface low tracking along or very close to the coast Saturday while the 12z ECWMF is much farther offshore and slower to develop. The ECMWF is not the preferred solution, but confidence remains low given the shifts in timing that continue.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A very weak pressure pattern resides across the forecast area and somewhat plentiful moisture noting the convective field rapidly developing this afternoon. There are some lingering MVFR conditions in ILM in the wake of the anticipated NE boundary but these are mixing out as we speak. Overall expect VFR conditions to persist though the afternoon and early evening hours. I did add IFR and MVFR late tonight along the coast as it seems sea fog and or stratus is doable. Fog may become an issue inland later as well noting the moisture/weak winds pressure pattern. Extended Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions possible again Sunday night with a second cold front. VFR for the start of next week.
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&& .MARINE...
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Through Sunday...After a few gusty winds associated with the NE boundary winds appear to have settled into the onshore/sea breeze configuration as expected. The weakly forced flow will acquire more definition in time overnight with a southwest flow developing. This flow...which will persist though Sunday will see speeds of 10-15 knots. Significant seas...with little in the way of sustained fetch will be 2-3 feet. Sunday Night through Thursday...An upper level disturbance gliding northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina could bring us a round of showers Sunday night, mainly south of Cape Fear. This is in advance of a cold front that will makes its way southward and across the area early Monday morning. There won`t be a significant surge of wind behind this initial front, but a second much stronger front arriving Monday evening will be accompanied by a surge of northwest winds gusting to 30 knots. We`ll almost certainty need a Small Craft Advisory in place. Forecast confidence is high for this surge of strong winds. Chilly Canadian high pressure will build eastward out of the Plains states Tuesday through Wednesday with moderate offshore winds expected. A shift to northerly winds may occur Thursday as a weak front drifts in from the north.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...SHK MARINE...TRA/SHK

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