Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 112354 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 654 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS TO A MORE MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THROUGH 6 AM PRECIP CHANCES ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING. CURRENTLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ARE COVERED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MS-AL-GA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A 500 MB DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 3000-9000 FEET AGL (EASILY TRACKED USING THE 285K OR 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES) AFTER 2 AM SHOULD LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE GOOD WITH QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THE RESULT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ARREST THE FALLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...AND TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE ALONG THE COAST LATE AS MARITIME INFLUENCE INCREASES. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY ON SKY COVER...WINDS...AND TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING. A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW QPF EVENT. TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING... EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS 15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19 FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19 && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION...LOW CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE AREA...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY. AS A RESULT WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW/RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WILL CREATE MVFR. AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE COAST TO THE INLAND AREAS...WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS LINGERING OF WINTRY PRECIP INLAND. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE CHANGED OVER TO RAIN CONTINUING WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THUS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AOB 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. BY MIDNIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MORE DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET INSIDE 20 MILES WITH 4 FOOT SEAS REPORTED OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO 4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING FOR A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER DOWNTOWN TONIGHT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-024. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ023-032-033-053-054. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ106>110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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