Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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222 FXUS62 KILM 260644 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 244 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge of high pressure will allow for warm temperatures and minimal rain chances through much of the weekend and early next week. At the surface there will be a light onshore flow. A wave of low pressure will be monitored for possible tropical development as it moves across southern Florida during the weekend and then into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Friday...Evolving upper and surface pattern remains unhurried today and tonight, as an upper ridge centered over far eastern TN, roams ENE to interior VA by daybreak Saturday. This will allow a weak surface ridge axis to remain positioned just SE of the SE NC and NE SC coasts. The flat pressure pattern coupled with subsidence aloft will promote a light south wind today and plenty sunshine with maximum temperatures slightly above normal for late August. Latest VWP off KLTX shows well the light S low-level flow topped by mild ridge winds aloft. At the base of these ridge winds lies a trapped 950 -875 MB layer of mositure at the disposal of heat induced cumulus development this afternoon. The overwhelming impacts of the upper ridge will prevent any hope of precipitation today, as parcels aloft are desert-like and sinking. Maximums today middle 90s inland and 88-91 closer to the coast. Overnight in a word `fair`. Minimum temperatures first light on Saturday mainly low 70s, milder by the sea and ICW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Friday...The chief weather caption this period is `nice and warm late summer weekend`. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal with isolated rain chances, primarily inland during afternoon heating. The upper ridge to the north will maintain a hold of the area for the most part. By Sunday, swell waves may increase the rip current risk but no direct tropical threat is expected this weekend. Column moisture begins to deepen up to 700 MB by Saturday afternoon as the upper ridge weakens and lower column winds become more onshore. This coupled with several weak impulses rounding the upper ridge could spark a few showers or a storm this weekend, though isolated in anticipated coverage and late in the afternoon or during the evening.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Friday...Weakening mid level ridge center will be to our north on Monday and the surface pattern will favor a light onshore flow. On these matters models agree pretty well. How strong of a vort max slides under the southern edge of the upper ridge is not. GFS has trended towards the stronger solutions so this feature may be able to boost ascent over the low level moist flow for at least chance POPS to be warranted. Upper weakness remains along the coast Tuesday though it may shift eastward slightly. Wednesday and Thursday brings a broad and deepening trough into New England that will cause a drying NW flow locally. Temperatures will show very little variation through the period and tend to average just a few degrees above climatology.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...Short TAFs overnight with just a few lines to address some change in wind direction later today once mixing ensues. Some MVFR fog is possible during the predawn inland and/or at CRE. Some guidance is suggesting IFR but given how dry it has been feel this is too pessimistic. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Potential for MVFR due to areas of haze or fog early each morning and with isolated convection on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...Idyllic marine conditions today and tonight as wind energy is low with manageable longer period E waves rolling in, and no TSTMS posing a threat over the waters. Seas of 2-3 feet today and tonight can be expected in mainly E waves every 8-9 seconds, with a light S chop in the afternoon during the sea breeze peak. A weak surface ridge axis offshore will maintain a light S and SW winds during the evening and overnight period. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Friday...Opportunity abounds this weekend as marine conditions remain welcoming. Light and variable winds early Saturday will become SE 10 KT or less. High pressure building slightly in from the north will produce NE-E winds 10 KT Sunday. With low wind energy overall, longer period waves of 9 and 11 seconds should be seen. Very late in the period Sunday night we may see wave heights increase due to swell waves. A few showers will dot the waters Sunday. LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Friday...A very light wind expected both days with a poorly defined pressure pattern just barely strong enough to keep an E flow direction pronounced. The exception will be where wind locally turns coast-perpendicular and accelerates a few knots as the seabreeze develops each afternoon. The shorter wind chop will thus be minimal but there will be a well defined swell component from Gaston.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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