Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271552 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH BROUGHT SOME PASSING CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING...LEAVING SUNNY SKIES BY MID MORNING. A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SC AROUND 4 TO 5K FT TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PCP BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IT SQUEEZED OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN AN OTHERWISE DRY ATMOSPHERE. MODELS SHOW PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH RISING UP NEAR A HALF INCH AS VORT MAX RIDES THROUGH THIS AFTN. ANY SPRINKLES THAT FALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS MAINLY FROM LUMBERTON ACROSS TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND OVER TO THE COAST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KICK UP AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN DEEP COLD AND DRY FLOW ON BACK END OF MID TO UPPER TROUGH. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES IN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAA WILL OFFSET FULL SUNSHINE TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TOO MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BASICALLY REACHING MID 50S. DEEP DRY AND COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE BACK END OF UPPER TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE QUITE A DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BRINGING READINGS DOWN NEAR FREEZING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BELOW 30 INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...COOL BUT DRY FOR THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT SOLAR INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO WARM THE AREA THANKS TO 850MB TEMPS OF -2C TO -5C DURING FRIDAY. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER LATE FRIDAY...BUT THIS WILL ALSO HAVE NO AFFECT ON DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH ONLY ABOUT 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPR IMPULSE WILL SWING THROUGH THE DE-AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF THEN AS JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE 500MB...WHICH MAY HAVE AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT LIMITING EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT. CALM WINDS AND A DRY COLUMN WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT...BUT BELIEVE MOS NUMBERS ARE A BIT TOO COLD AND EXPECT PRIMARILY UPPER 20S...LOW 30S AT THE BEACHES...AS OPPOSED TO THE MID 20S BEING DEPICTED IN A LOT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS MID-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL STILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH LIGHT SW RETURN FLOW HELPING THE CAUSE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MINS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND...LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...BIG WARMUP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS...BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID-WEEK. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER...BUT SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANGES COME ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVE DOWN THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...MOS P NUMBERS HAVE RISEN INTO THE CHC RANGE...AND FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST INCREASING SATURATION BELOW 600MB. PWATS STAY BELOW 0.8 INCHES...AND THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY END UP AS JUST INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INHERITED KEEPS POP JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SILENCE FOR NOW...BUT AN INCREASE TO SCHC MAY BE REQUIRED WITH LATER UPDATES. EITHER WAY...TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND COOL NE WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY THE AREA BEGINS TO RECOVER AGAIN HOWEVER...AS THE WEDGE GETS BROKEN DOWN BY THICKNESSES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A SHORTWAVE PRESSURE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED A SMALL AMOUNT AT THE NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TAF SITES AND AN INCREASE AT THE SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SITES IS EXPECT JUST AFTER 12 UTC. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS HELP RID THE TAF SITES OF FOG. A MID LEVEL DECK BETWEEN 8000 AND 11000 FEET IS MOVING ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A SCATTERED DECK OF CLOUDS AT 4000 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 12-14 UTC AT KCRE/KMYR/KFLO AS 35 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT ARE DEPICTED WELL IN THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 28 KT RANGE. WIND WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FALL TO 6 TO 8 KT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MORNING FOG ON MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 TO 7 IN OUTER WATERS. POTENT SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO KICK UP WINDS WITH DEEP NW WINDS DEVELOPING. THE STRONG CAA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP A WELL MIXED GUSTY MARINE LAYER OVER THE WATERS. THE OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE BUT EXPECT UP TO 5 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS OF LOCAL MARINE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS AS THEY VEER AROUND FROM W TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN GRADUALLY BY MORNING ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO WANE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO FALL FROM AROUND 20 KTS EARLY...TO 10 KTS BY NIGHTFALL. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...CREATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE SW WINDS OF 10 KTS DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW HOURS OF 3-5 FT SEAS WILL EXIST FIRST THING FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEAKENING WINDS HELP SEAS FALL TO 1-3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...CHANGING ONLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...ABRUPTLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-3 FT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A SW WIND WAVE AND WEAK SE SWELL COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH...CREATING A NORTHERLY WIND CHOP LATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DRH

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