Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 182335 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 735 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST. A HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF BRIEFLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE WILL COUPLE WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CURRENTLY SURGING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS FOR THE ILM CWA. MOS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 INLAND TO NEAR 55 ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH AN ONGOING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SATURDAY MORNING WILL FIND THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A WARM FRONT LINED UP JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW. HAVE AGAIN LEANED ON THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY SEEMED IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE NAM WHICH GOES FOR AN OVERALL DRYER FORECAST. DID NOT LIKE HOW THE NAM WEAKENS AND THEN TRIES TO WASH OUT THE SYSTEM EARLY. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS HANG IN LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. GIVEN THE ABOVE AND BASED ON MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL START OFF SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND NO MENTIONABLE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPRESS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...BUT WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY BE PUSHING AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND DEFLECTS IT OFFSHORE. WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT WORKS EAST ON TUESDAY...LIKELY CROSSING THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...BUT SOME CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO SEASONABLE OR JUST BELOW AGAIN WED/THU...EVEN WITH AMPLE LATE-APRIL SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN A NICE WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING AS STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL...BEGINNING WITH KFLO... KMYR AND KCRE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD... KILM/KLBT SHOULD DROP TO IFR BY 06Z. EXPECT CONSTANT -RA/RA TONIGHT WITH TEMPO +RA LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS CIGS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1KFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AFTN...MOST LIKELY AT KFLO/KLBT IF IT OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS WARM FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LOWEST ALONG THE COAST. BECOMING VFR ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WATERS...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE ENE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...ROUGH SEAS WILL WARRANT ITS CONTINUATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND THROUGH MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE NEAR TERM AS A STEADY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MODEST...ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...THEY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF FLORIDA. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FT RANGE AS A RESULT. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA ON MONDAY...LEAVING NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL EASE FROM 15-20 KTS EARLY TO LESS THAN 10 KTS MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RESPOND QUICKLY TO THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS...BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS TUESDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AT 15-25 KTS. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...AND SOME 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A BRIEF SCA MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS THEN REMAIN FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...BJR MARINE...REK/JDW/CRM

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