Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000
FXUS62 KILM 190818
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
418 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through
tonight. Milder and continued dry conditions expected Wed
followed by the next dry CFP Wed night. Looking at dry and near
normal temps Thu with high pressure prevailing. Rain chances
return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves
northeast up the Southeast Atlantic coast. Partial clearing with
at or above normal temps Sun into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Gusts are starting to decrease inland, still near 20 kts at the
coast. The trough axis will be offshore come the morning. Weak
high pressure will build in from the west for today,
temperatures on the cooler side in the mid to upper 50s. Decent
mixing will still lead to gusts near 25 mph in the afternoon,
and the dry air in place will lead to clear skies. Clear skies
continue into tonight with gusts decreasing after sunset.
Another trough will pass by to our north leading to enough of a
breeze that radiational cooling should be disrupted. Went with
lows on the milder side of guidance, near 40.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Will remain under W to NW flow aloft thru Thu with continued dry
conditions. Looking at a brief warm up Wed ahead of the next
cold front, under gusty SW-WSW winds as the sfc pg re-tightens.
The dry CFP slated for Wed night, however not as dramatic as
it`s predecessor Mon night. Will see some CAA and a semi-
tightened sfc pg Thu with winds becoming N-NE, temps dropping
back to near normal. Thu night will see a southern stream s/w
upper trof drop down to the TX-LA Gulf of Mexico coast and begin
to influence the FA with increasing SW flow aloft. Look for an
increase in upper level clouds from the SW with onshore low
level moist flow, look for additional clouds to increase in
coverage later Thu night.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The Gulf Coast upper trof to progress ENE to the Eastern
Carolinas from Fri thru Sat. Guidance pretty much agrees that
light to moderate stratiform rain will be the focus Fri into
Fri night, with likely or hier chances, as a coastal trof off
the Carolina Coast is poised to get pulled to the coastal
waters with various models unsure how far onshore and inland.
Various models have also backed down with the intensity of the
sfc low as it lasses over/by the ILM CWA given the somewhat
dampening upper s/w trof as it reaches the FA. Nevertheless,
will indicate isolated thunder closer to the coast and over the
Atl waters Fri night into Sat. May see leftover showers later
Sat into Sat night followed by partial clearing Sun. Mid-level
ridging becomes established overhead by early next week with
mainly dry conditions and at or above normal temps.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR with gusty NNW winds. Gusts 20-30kts will remain at the
coast for the next couple hours while gusts inland should be at
or below 20kts. These higher gusts will decrease towards
daybreak. Winds will gradually shift to out of the SW towards
the evening, with gusts near 20 kts in the aftn and possibly
again towards the end of the period.
Extended Outlook... VFR. Flight restrictions possible Friday
through the end of the period due to increasing rain chances.
&&
.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...With the trough offshore, a brief period
of improving conditions will settle in during the day due to
building high pressure. NW winds will become SWly by the
afternoon. The pressure gradient will increase again this
evening as another disturbance passes to the north, with SCA
criteria again being met tonight. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft.
Wednesday through Saturday Night...SCA possible early Wed
morning with the sfc pg remaining somewhat tightened ahead of
the next cold front during daylight Wed. The gustiness will
remain closer to the immediate coast as WAA ahead of the cold
front overrides the sfc based cool marine layer. The CFP slated
for Wed night followed by ridging from the NW Thu then N-NE Fri.
The sfc pg will loosen Thu but likely re-tighten Thu night thru
Fri night ahead of an approaching low pressure from the Gulf
Coast to off the Carolina Coasts by Sat. The intensity of this
low and upper support has mellowed somewhat when compared to
previous and various model runs. However, will continue to
advertise strong SCA possibilities but refrain from mentioning
Gales at this time. Generally SW-W offshore wind will keep seas
in the 2 to 5 ft range at the start, with the hier seas slated
from Cape Fear to Murrells Inlet. Winds become onshore NE-E Thu
then E-SE Fri thru Fri night and into Sat due to the positioning
of the coastal trof. Look for a decent fetch to setup allowing
seas to build to 5 to 9 ft Fri night into Sat with some
subsiding Sat night as winds become Northerly thruout.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeastern
North Carolina. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will
fall to 15-25% across the area. Northwest and west winds will
hover around 10-15 mph early in the day, but southwest winds
will increase during the afternoon, becoming gusty later in the
day. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible during the late afternoon
and just prior to sunset. The combination of dry fuels, low
relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to increased fire
danger on Tuesday. Increased fire danger may also persist into
Wednesday, with RH values around 30% and gusty W-WSW winds at
10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
254-256.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW
FIRE WEATHER...