Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161734 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 134 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will be relatively cooler today behind a cold front but will continue above normal through the weekend. A much stronger cold front will sweep through the area Monday night bringing below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Warmer weather will develop late in the week with rain chances returning by Friday, as moisture lifts up from the Gulf of Mexico. && .UPDATE... A lot of moving parts this morning via a modest northeast push across Cape Fear, high clouds from the southwest and transitioning earlier fog into stratus. Although some areas are reporting some broken to overcast skies there is some merit to the strong mid March sun keeping conditions somewhat mixed out as guidance suggests. For this reason will hold onto the current high temperatures. Only minimal other changes with the update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An area of light showers is making its way through NE SC currently with patchy fog filling elsewhere inland. These showers should come to an end by the early morning as a cold front pushes in from the north, stalling across the Cape Fear area. Dry air from the west in the mid-levels should squash any precip chances but low clouds look to hang around. With the cloud cover and frontal boundary, expecting SE NC highs to be in the lower 70s with NE SC a bit warmer in the upper 70s. Deeper SW flow looks to arrive tonight ahead of another shortwave aloft, WAA moving in around midnight. While the low clouds will scatter out, cirrus looks to take its place. Lows in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... To our north, a 500 mb low will pivot across SE Canada Sunday-Sunday night, and to our south, weak shortwave energy will traverse the Gulf coast states. Moisture associated with the southern stream system will spread across the area Sunday evening and Sunday night in progressive zonal flow, and model solutions still not in great agreement on just how far north this moisture will make it. Therefore am not inclined to make significant changes to forecast PoPs during this period, and will maintain a range of 30% north to 70% south Sunday night, clearing out by 12Z Monday. Cold advection gets underway Monday morning as a cold front moves off the coast, introducing an airmass change that will bring temps back down to near climatology. Highs Monday generally mid 60s along with a N-NW breeze. Lows Monday night will drop into the mid 30s behind a secondary cold front, which will be pushed along by a sharp 500 mb trough crossing the Mid-Atlantic states. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday will be the coolest day of the period, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s most areas. 850 mb temps will begin to moderate a bit, and lows Tuesday night should be 2-3 degrees higher than Monday night. The column will remain quite dry through Thursday, and a weak cold frontal passage Wednesday night won`t have any associated PoPs. Rain chances will increase Friday, however, as a 500 mb low shifts across the Mid-South, ushering in Gulf moisture which will interact with a coastal trough moving onshore. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A very weak pressure pattern resides across the forecast area and somewhat plentiful moisture noting the convective field rapidly developing this afternoon. There are some lingering MVFR conditions in ILM in the wake of the anticipated NE boundary but these are mixing out as we speak. Overall expect VFR conditions to persist though the afternoon and early evening hours. I did add IFR and MVFR late tonight along the coast as it seems sea fog and or stratus is doable. Fog may become an issue inland later as well noting the moisture/weak winds pressure pattern. Extended Outlook...Sub- VFR conditions possible again Sunday night with a second cold front. VFR for the start of next week.
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&& .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions today with seas 2-3 ft. NW winds will become NE by the afternoon and SE by the evening, speeds near 8-10 kts. Winds will turn to from the SW late tonight. Sunday through Wednesday: Light to moderate southwest winds are expected Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. A weak upper level disturbance moving along the Gulf coast Sunday should cross Georgia and South Carolina Sunday night, accompanied by an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should remain south of Cape Fear, and will be well offshore before the cold front arrives from the north Monday morning. This front will turn winds offshore, then a second front will arrive with strong northwest winds that will necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for 25+ knot winds. Winds should diminish during the day Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds southeastward. The high will settle over the NE Gulf of Mexico, maintaining SW winds across the area waters Wednesday, on the order of 10-15 kt. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...CRM LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...SHK MARINE...TRA/LEW/CRM

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