Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 280725
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
320 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016
A cold front approaching from the west will stall through mid-
week before moving across the area Thursday into Friday. Dry high
pressure will build into the area by the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 11 PM Tuesday...Forecast area is now convection free
and although latest guidance shows small chances for renewed
activity do not feel comfortable completely ruling it out for the
overnight period given storms passing to the north and west of
us. NC counties will see the best chances for renewed convection
after midnight, although confidence not especially high. Relevant
portion of previous discussion from this afternoon follows:
Expect areal extent of convection to diminish during the evening.
Have trended POPs a little lower along the coast, while have
increased them a notch across the Pee Dee and Lumberton areas. A
blend of MAV/MET numbers looks reasonable for overnight low
temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...A large upper low will continue to evolve
across the Midwest and Ohio valley Wednesday through Thursday as
it slowly meanders toward the south-southeast. This feature will
gradually push a cold front across the area late Thursday. Given
how amplified the pattern is aloft would not be surprised if the
frontal passage is delayed a little further. Thus the forecast
area will remain in the warmer sector through most of the short
term period and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
persist as well. An impulse is shown to wrap around the upper low,
likely passing to our northwest during Thursday. SPC continues to
highlight central NC with a Marginal Risk of severe tstms. Part of
this risk area includes as portion of the Lumberton area and
northern parts of the Pee Dee. The highest precipitable water
values remain off the coast through Thursday with much lower values
beginning to filter in from the west Thursday night. As mentioned
earlier, the timing is suspect given the orientation of the front
to the flow aloft. A blend of MAV/MET numbers appears reasonable
each day and night.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 3 AM Tuesday...Despite the fact that the long term begins with
an impressively large cutoff to our west the weather will be pretty
quiet. The reason for this is that we will be in the dry slot of the
occluded surface low to our NW and the deep moisture will be off the
coast. Sunday and Monday as the weakening front pushes through some
of this moisture may get drawn back to the coast for some minor rain
chances-all while temperatures remain close to their seasonable
norms. The front washes out by Monday leaving behind a weak surface
pattern while mid level heights build. There will still be no real
forcing for precipitation and no low level thermal advection to
change temperatures much from the values earlier in the period.
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.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...Light and variable winds setting up though inland
terminals may see a light southerly breeze through the night. Even
so, some MVFR fog possible just about anywhere with plentiful low
level moisture but mid level cloud deck should prevent any further
reduction in flight category. After sunrise VFR expected and any
shower or thunderstorm activity too isolated to warrant anything
other than VC save for maybe LBT where coverage could wind up a bit
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA through Thursday. A cold
frontal passage late Wednesday into Thursday. Primarily VFR
expected Friday through Sunday.
-- Changed Discussion --NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 PM Tuesday...latest obs continue to show very light NE
winds over the waters with seas around 3 ft and no convection.
This is in accordance with the present forecast. No changes
planned with the latest update. Previous discussion from this
Weak area of low pressure will quickly move by the adjacent
waters later this afternoon and evening before departing to the
northeast. The resulting wind field will be variable at 10 knots
or less. Seas will be 3 ft or less tonight.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...The flow will eventually become
southeasterly during Wednesday in response to a slow moving cold
front approaching from the west. Additional veering to the
southwest with an increase in speed is expected by Thursday
evening just ahead of the cold front. Seas will be 3 ft or less
Wednesday through Thursday morning, then possibly 3-4 ft by
LONG TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...A weakening cold front running parallel to the
coast will only slightly shift through the period moving from just
onshore to just offshore. It`s parent surface cyclone will be well
occluded and thus deprived of its energy source and so the whole
system will feature a baggy and poorly defined pressure pattern.
This is good news for most mariners though as winds will be quite
light and somewhat variable through the period. Seas will be
slightly elevated above what such slack winds would otherwise
support since spectral wave bulletins show a myriad of wave
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