Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150701 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 301 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will retreat offshore today. A strong cold front will sweep through the Carolinas on Monday accompanied by showers. Much cooler and drier air will build in Monday night and Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds over the eastern United States. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures should persist through Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...A very weak pressure gradient resides under an elongated mid level ridge that is situated northeast to southwest over the area. Some changes will occur this period especially late when mid level troughing will sweep across the Great Lakes region bring a front to our western areas by early Monday. I did maintain the low chance pops for early Monday for a stray shower or two moving in from the west and possibly something moving across the waters glancing the coast. Until then, significant fog is the issue this morning and will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the main morning package for most areas. The fog/stratus should slowly dissipate later this morning allowing more sunshine vs Saturday. Highs today in the lower middle 80s and lows tonight in the lower to middle 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...The upper air pattern is looking less like summer and a lot more like fall. A progressive full-latitude trough will move across the eastern United States on Monday. Just like we saw with yesterday morning`s model runs, the new 00Z GFS is faster than the NAM with timing of the actual frontal passage. Even averaging the 4-hour timing differences together, I still like the warmer NAM forecast highs better as there should be some insolation during the morning ahead of the front where the airmass should remain quite warm. A decaying low and mid level ridge out ahead of the trough will prevent any significant return of moisture along the cold front, probably leaving only a narrow channel of moisture deep enough to produce showers. Good low-level convergence plus meager convective instability should yield a line of showers on and just behind the surface front. Reviewing model isentropic fields for Monday afternoon and night shows no significant upglide within the frontal inversion. Despite a good 6 hours of post-frontal cloudiness there probably won`t be a significant amount of post-frontal precipitation. Our forecast PoPs are 60-70 percent, but with only around a tenth of an inch of QPF. The chilliest air of the season will surge into the area Monday night. 850 mb temps will fall to +8C to +10C, significantly cooler than what we`ve seen all this month. Breezy low-level winds should keep temperatures from dropping too far, and we`re forecasting lows in the upper 40s with 50/low 50s on the beaches. Even with lots of sun on Tuesday highs should only reach 68-70. Better radiational cooling with lighter winds Tuesday night should allow temps to fall into the mid 40s inland with upper 40s near the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...With a recently passed cold front, high pressure will quickly build in across the area early next week where it will remain through the period. A brief cool down on Tuesday will be short-lived as upper level ridging moves in across the eastern US in to the latter part of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60`s inland to around 70 at the coast, with a gradual increase into the mid 70`s throughout the week. Overnight lows will range in the low to mid 50`s. In regards to precipitation, moisture supply to the area will remain extremely minimal given placement of the ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...A very weak pressure gradient resides across the area this morning. A very persistent area of stratus continues to hover along the coast. Where there is clearing IFR to LIFR fog has quickly developed. There is nothing to scour these conditions out and do not expect improvement until mid morning. The stratus in the eastern sites should abate slowly as well only to be quickly replaced by significant fog. Long story short, a rugged few hours for aviation concerns. Extended Outlook...Isolated to scattered MVFR/IFR produced convection is possible on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. MVFR stratus possible near the coast TUE/WED morning in blustery post-frontal NE wind. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Very light winds are currently over the coastal waters with 41013 down to two knots from the east/northeast. The weak winds will continue through the period although the gradient becomes a little better defined late tonight into early Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. A southwest direction will also develop late tonight. Significant seas will continue to reflect the weak winds with a range of 2-4 and mostly 2-3 feet. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...The strongest cold front of fall will push across the coastal waters around noon on Monday. Light westerly winds Monday morning will turn northerly and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts over 30 kt by late afternoon. Cold air will continue to surge across the area Monday night with some gusts potentially reaching 35 knots due to deep mixing triggered by cold air moving across warm water. Wind speeds should diminish slightly on Tuesday, but Small Craft Advisory conditions will probably persist through the day as the incoming Canadian high remains too far north of our area to allow the pressure gradient to loosen. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...Wednesday and Thursday, expect northeasterly winds around 15 kts with seas 3 to 5 ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM for Darlington-Marlboro- Dillon-Marion-Florence-Williamsburg Counties. NC...Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM for Robeson County. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...SHK

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