Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262317 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 717 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper disturbance will bring a few showers Tuesday followed by a reinforcement of cooler and drier air through mid week. Summer warmth and humidity will return late week and into the weekend with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Just a few stratus/stratocumulus clouds trapped underneath the frontal inversion for the remainder of the day. They have proved enough to keep temperatures just a bit below climatology. Guidance has shown that this moisture will erode for all but coastal areas early tonight. Then later tonight into tomorrow morning the offshore boundary will weaken if not wash out entirely. This may allow for some very shallow moisture to creep back onshore but not to where fog seems likely to form. Later Tuesday a cold front driven by a healthy upper trough and vort max will approach from the northwest. The upper system appears likely to be the main rain-maker Tuesday since deep moisture recovery will not have time to occur. This may mean that NC deserves some slightly higher POPs than SC but for now prefer a broad-brush 30 area-wide since measurable rainfall may not happen at all.
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&& && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will be ending as the a shortwave exits to the northeast Tue night. The shortwave drags a secondary cold front across the area early Wed with a cooler and much drier air mass building in for the middle of the week. Precipitable water values drop under 0.75 inches Wed and a mid level subsidence inversion develops as the 5h trough exits and weak 5h ridge starts to build. High pressure northwest of the area early Wed shifts east, passing north of the area Wed evening. The high ends up off the coast as the period ends with weak return flow just starting to develop. Subsidence and the abundance of dry air will ensure the period is dry once any lingering activity Tue evening comes to an end. Temperatures will run below climo through the period with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Long term period will be marked by the return of weather more typical of late June as Bermuda high pressure ridges back into the area. High temperatures will increase from the mid to upper 80s Thursday to the upper 80s to lower 90s for the remainder of the period. Lows will increase from upper 60s to lower 70s thursday night to the low to mid 70s for the remainder of the period. Thursday should be the last dry day with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, during the rest of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 00Z...VFR through Tue morning. A reinforcing cold front bolstered by a mid-level shortwave will bring isolated to scattered showers Tue afternoon, exiting off the coast Tue eve. There is a very low probability for brief MVFR visibility in showers during this time. Wind speeds will be under 10 kt through the valid TAF period. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms Sat.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...With a frontal boundary offshore weakening if not completely washing out overnight winds will show considerable variability and speeds will remain minimal. Seas also quite minimal with no appreciable swell energy to speak of. Just as a light onshore flow seemingly starts getting established early Tuesday afternoon another cold front pushes through turning winds to N or NE. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...Northerly flow will develop early in the period as high pressure to the northwest builds in following the passage of cold front. Gradient behind the front is not particularly tight and speeds will remain under 15 kt Tue night. Surface high is quick to move east Wed and Wed night. Northeast flow Tue night into Wed shifts to easterly Wed evening and eventually southeast by the end of the period. Speeds Wed and Wed night will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be around 2 ft through the period. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...SE winds around 10 kt will become S to SW by Thursday night and continue through Saturday though speeds could top out around 15 kt by Saturday. Seas around 2 feet are expected most of the period with a few 3 footers possible Saturday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RAN AVIATION...RJD

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