Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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751 FXUS62 KILM 200558 CCA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1232 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will slowly build across the area Monday and Tuesday, shifting offshore Wednesday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. A risk for showers will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 930 PM Sunday...Deep ridging from the surface up through 500 mb and beyond is building in from the north and west. This should maintain clear skies and a dry atmospheric column through the night. Temperatures are falling rather quickly this evening as winds are near calm in most locations. We are likely in a lull with wind speeds currently, but whether this lasts the remainder of the night is in question. A modest nocturnal surge should work its way southward across the area after 2-3 AM as inland pressure rises begin to contrast more strongly with lower pressures over the relatively warm water offshore. Winds just above the surface are progged to increase to 15-20 knots, which might recouple the decoupled boundary layer and keep temperatures from diving too deeply through the 40s. No significant changes have been made to the forecast, which still shows forecast lows of 45-50, warmest along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday...Upper ridge will continue to drift eastward with its axis moving across the area Tue and then offshore Tue night. The strong surface high centered across eastern Canada will ridge southward Mon with the center migrating to off the Mid- Atlantic coast Tue and the Carolina coast Tue night. Cooler air will work its way into the area Mon night and Tue with 850 mb temps dropping to around 6 deg C. A series of shortwave troughs, embedded in developing NW flow late in the period may bring a shower late Tue night, but given the residual dryness below 5-6 kft, will refrain from including even a small POP at this time. There may be some late night fog Tue night as onshore flow brings increasing dewpoints. Highs Mon will still be well above normal, lower to mid 70s with the beaches stymied in the mid and upper 60s. Highs on Tue will be mainly in the mid and upper 60s with a few 70 degree readings across portions of the Pee Dee Region which is still above normal. Lows will be in the 40s Mon night and mainly lower 50s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday...The mid level pattern will be mostly zonal through the period. A shearing system will move through the Ohio Valley late Friday into early Saturday with a cold front at the surface. This will replace a very warm and moist airmass that will be in place Wedensday through Friday. The highest pops through the period occur with the front but are capped at low chance. There are low pops for Wednesday and Thursday based on interestingly enough a diurnal convective signature but activity seems a stretch. Temperatures cool off for Sunday but otherwise expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 06Z...High confidence in VFR through the valid period. Light northwest flow tonight. Moisture profiles due not support fog, however there could be some ground fog in the usual prone areas just before sunrise. Predominately northeast flow on Monday with high pressure centered north of the region. Quite dry at all levels. Extended Outlook...VFR. Showers possible Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Sunday...We are in a lull in wind speeds between stronger westerly winds during the afternoon and a little stronger winds expected late tonight with a northerly surge. Wind speeds range from 5-10 knots nearshore to 10-12 knots out at Frying Pan Shoals buoy. No changes are needed with this forecast update. Discussion from 630 PM follows... A ridge of high pressure centered over Hudson Bay in Canada extends southward into Alabama. This ridge will slowly work eastward tonight. While this might seem to indicate diminishing wind speeds, what often occurs on northerly flow is that a surge develops after midnight as nocturnal pressure rises across interior NC and VA begin to contrast with lower pressure out over the warmer water off the NC and SC coast. This should keep wind speeds from dropping below 10 knots tonight, and by daybreak we may see gusts reaching 15 knots away from shore from the north. Seas should remain 2 ft or less. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday....The center of high pressure will drift south and be centered just offshore Tue night. N winds near daybreak Mon will veer to NE Mon morning. NE winds will then remain into Tue before veering to SE to SW Tue night. Given the proximity of high pressure, the wind direction may become light and variable for a time Tue night. Wind speeds will be highest Mon and especially Mon night, around 15 kt. Seas will be highest Mon night, up to 3 to 4 ft and lowest Tue night, 1 to 2 ft. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Sunday...Essentially a summer like pattern for the marine community throuigh the period. With Bermuda high pressure being the main driver of winds expect a southeast flow of ten knots or less through the period. There is a Piedmont trough analyzed both Wednesday and Thursday with the westerly flow aloft but it appears weak and doesn`t seem to bump up the winds any. Significant seas will be reflective of the light wind fields with 1-3 feet and in most cases 1-2 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL MARINE...RJD/TRA/SHK

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