Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021814 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 214 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DEEPER CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000 J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS THE STORMS DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE AREA IN THE 4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME. THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY, HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH).
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10KT. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH DIRECTIONS OF S-W POSSIBLE. PER VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING WEST OF KFLO. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS WILL BE KFLO/KLBT EARLY EVENING AND COASTAL TERMINALS MID-LATE EVENING. OVERNIGHT THINK MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS. SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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