Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 221912 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 312 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. A COOLING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT THE AIRMASS IS WARM BUT NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS SHUTTING OUT BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A 300 MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BECOME FAVORABLY LOCATED FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6-8 PM. GIVEN A DEEP DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEARLY 7000 FEET THICK...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS TOWARD THE COAST...BUT MAY RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE. FORECAST POPS RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST. BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR WILL BLEED INTO THE REGION. UNDER CLEARING SKIES LOWS SHOULD REACH 52-58...WARMEST ALONG THE SC BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LOVELY APRIL WEATHER ON TAP WED/THU AS POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. IF YOU PREFER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...THESE 2 DAYS MAY RUN A TOUCH COOL AS WE EXPECT LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST INLAND SE NC AND MILDEST SC INTERIOR. IF YOU LOVE SUNSHINE...BOTH DAYS WILL OFFER THE SOUGHT AFTER STAR-RADIATION. OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER MARINE LAYER AT BAY AND MOSTLY POISED OVER THE WATER...WHEREAS BY THURSDAY...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE WINDS MAY ALLOW THE COOLER MARINE LAYER TO BLEED INLAND. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICTS EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR PERCHED ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...AND NO POPS ARE PLANNED BOTH DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE AS A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MORE AMPLITUDE IN TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL IN TURN PROVIDE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT MEANDERS BASICALLY ACROSS THE CWA. I HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WE DO NOT FORESEE AN EPIC RAINFALL EVENT BUT MORE OF A NUISANCE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS PROVIDING POPS FOR FRIDAY. A DRY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...NO WILD SWINGS WITH EARLY PERIOD TEMPERATURES SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN USUAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE RANGE DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 19Z...MID LEVEL CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AFTER 18Z...BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS STILL DEPICT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT AROUND 21Z AND KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND 00Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE INLAND TERMS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING ANY PCPN...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENED NEARSHORE BY THE ADDITION OF THE DAYTIME SEABREEZE. IN FACT AT 3 PM WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT TOPSAIL BEACH NC. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET AT OUR LOCAL BUOYS IN A MIX OF 9 SECOND SWELL AND A SHORT PERIOD CHOP. THE SWELL COMPONENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS BECOMING MORE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SHORT PERIOD COMPONENTS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRISKY NW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NW WIND-SPEEDS HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TO AROUND 15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE OUTER PORTION GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTER PORTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 4 FEET...AND 1-2 FEET ALONG THE INSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY COMPOSED OF ESE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 8-9 SEC AND A MODERATE NW CHOP WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A LIGHT N-NE CHOP ON THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EASING AND VEERING WINDS THU. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING RATHER INVITING FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY...THIS AFTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING FRONT FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO THE WEST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY. THEY WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE WIND FIELDS WITH 3-4 FEET FRIDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR/TRA

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