Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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938 FXUS62 KILM 092252 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 555 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A DRY ARCTIC FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC CHILL MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE UNABATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD COVER POISED TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THEM ARE LOOKING A LITTLE CONVECTIVE. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON RADAR LOOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING COUPLED. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WED. THUS...ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE... THE COLD AIR WILL BE STRONGLY ADVECTING INTO THE AREA... REINFORCING THE WINTER CHILL. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WED WITH THE GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 WED AND LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 40S THU. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS THE TEENS THIS PERIOD AND EVEN DURING THE DAY IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 30S...NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS LATE THU NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR S MAY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS WHICH COULD COMPLICATE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST. A FEW SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS WED NIGHT IF THE WIND SUFFICIENTLY DIMINISHES NEAR DAYBREAK TO ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT WILL BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS WITH EVEN A FEW SINGLE NUMBERS POSSIBLE. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE GROUND IS AS WET AS IT IS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...LONG TERM GOES FROM COLD TO REALLY COLD AND THEN BACK TO JUST COLD. FRIDAY BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND LARGE VORTEX NORTH OF NY STATE. A SMALL POCKET OF ENERGY DISTINGUISHES ITSELF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF NW FLOW AND MANIFESTS AS A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES BUT SINCE MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR PTYPE ISSUES WILL CARRY MINIMAL POPS FOR WHAT WILL END UP LIKELY AS SPRINKLES/FLURRIES, IF ANYTHING AT ALL. UPPER LOW SINKS SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO PENETRATE THE REGION PLUNGING 850MB TEMPS TO -10 TO -15C ROUGHLY SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY AND/OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST OF THE COLD THUS APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE EVEN THOUGH SOME RECOVERY MAY BE UNDERWAY SUNDAY MIXING WILL BE THE POOREST. LATE IN THE PERIOD FINDS WEAKER UPPER TROUGHINESS AND A BIT FURTHER WEST LEADING TO US CLOUDING UP LOCALLY AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. OUR TEMPERATURE MODERATION SHOULD BE QUITE HINDERED BY ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT HAS US BACK TO CLIMO BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...LARGE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH STRATOCU CEILING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS SCATTERING A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. WEDNESDAY...CONTINUED COLD WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER STRATOCU CEILING IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE MAX HEATING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BUMP WINDS UP AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30+ KT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO INCREASE A LITTLE BY 00 UTC BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER GALE CRITERIA. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF GALE GUSTS. NO SURPRISE WITH SEAS...6-9 FEET ACROSS OUTER WATERS WITH LOWER VALUES AS YOU MOVE TO THE COAST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED FOR A TIME WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT. STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON AND EVE...UP TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THU. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE W AND WNW WHILE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FLATTEN SEAS NEAR SHORE WHILE ALLOWING SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS TO REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 7 FT. WIND SPEEDS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT AND THEN TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM WNW TO NW THU EVE AND TO N OR NE THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU AND 2 FT OR LESS THU NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...WIND AND SEAS BOTH PRETTY LIGHT ON FRIDAY THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND DIRECTION AS A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE BY. COLD AIR THEN SURGES STRONGLY ON SATURDAY AND A MODERATE NW FLOW DEVELOPS THAT MAY NECESSITATE A BRIEF SCEC. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LOCAL FLOW WILL VEER AND ABATE. SEAS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SIZE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...GUIDANCE STILL CALLING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH CONSIDERING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND LEVELS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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