Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 202357 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 757 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...SWINGING N AND E OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. WHILE THIS FEATURE IS RATHER POTENT...THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY... ESPECIALLY BELOW DEVELOPING CLOUD BASES...4 TO 7 KFT. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN NOT BE JUSTIFIED...A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NEAR TERM HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DO SUPPORT LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG COOLING AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUES WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ALOFT. EXPECT PCP WATER VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH THROUGH TUES. AS VORT MOVES THROUGH THE MAIN H5 TROUGH ON TUES IT WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PCP TUES MORNING IN CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH JUST OFF SHORE BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY THE AFTN. PCP SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST AND WILL LEAVE JUST SOME CLOUDS TUES MORNING FOR COASTAL LOCALES. MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUES NIGHT. A DEEP N-NW FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SLOWLY AROUND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURS MORNING. DECENT DYNAMICS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WED BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST NC. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL REBOUND ON TUES IN WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER SW TO W FLOW WITH AFTN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER HALF OF 70S. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS INTO WED WITH DEEP DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN AND MOST TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR WED IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. DRY AIR WITH LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES WED NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE WITHOUT THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MODIFYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE PERIOD. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO RIDGING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MID LEVELS DRY WHILE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL LIMIT AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO. DEEP DRY AIR AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND 06-08Z. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND DIURNAL TIMING DOES NOT HELP EITHER. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER. TUESDAY A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH MAINLY A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A WEAKER REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. S WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W AND NW WITH ITS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR SOME 3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH TUES FROM SW EARLY TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTN AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST TUES MORNING MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR TUES NIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH TUES AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUES NIGHT A SURGE OF N-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN A WELL MIXED MARINE LAYER. SEAS BELOW 2 FT OR LESS ON TUES WILL KICK UP IN CAA BEHIND FRONT EARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FT IN AS STRONGER OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF SHORE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY. GRADIENT REMAINS STATIC FRI AND SAT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. FLOW WILL REMAIN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43

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