Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 270000 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 800 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF A FLORENCE TO PEMBROKE LINE. THIS AREA HAS A SMALL RIDGE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE AS OF 23 UTC AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THESE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE UP AND DOWN UNTIL SUNSET. WITH A DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS/LIGHT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN GOING TAF ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3 FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC PERIODS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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