Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261405 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP MID AND LATE WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...AS USUAL WHEN THE WEATHER IS SO QUIET AND PLEASANT THERE ARE NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM POINTS NORTH AND EAST MORE TYPICAL OF COOL SEASON WEATHER TO KEEP TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT ALSO YIELDING MORE NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN HUMIDITY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH ITSELF IS WEAKENING SO TODAY MAY BRING A FEW MPH LESS OF A BREEZE WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OVER LAND...BUT CRISTOBAL PAIRED WITH THE HIGH STILL KEEPING PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE WATER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...ONLY IMPACTS FROM CRISTOBAL FOR THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE INCREASED LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AFFECTING THE WATERS. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP ON WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THURS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK MAINTAINING PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURS AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AND WINDS HAVE MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. HIGHS UP BETWEEN 85 AND 90 MOST PLACES ON WED WILL REACH INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS ON THURS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S WED NIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO 70 THURS NIGHT AS DEWPOINT TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP IN A MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE THURS. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURS BUT EXPECT IT TO BE HELD TO THE NORTH AS WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP ANY PCP OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE COLUMN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCP WATER VALUES DOWN LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL RISE BACK UP CLOSER TO 2 INCHES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY. OVERALL...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE LOSES ITS GRIPS ON THE SOUTHEAST AND MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY TUES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SYNOPTICALLY...LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS MIXING BEGINS AROUND 13-14Z. TIME HEIGHT SHOWS DRIER AIR THAN YESTERDAY ALOFT...SO DO NOT THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL CREEP ONSHORE TODAY. TROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE CAROLINAS OTHER THAN HIGHER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. CRISTOBAL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:15 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. AMZ254 WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES DUE TO ITS MORE SHELTERED LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUR NC MARINE ZONES AS A RELAXING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CRISTOBAL WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL REMAIN A NON-PLAYER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO THE NORTH AND EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CRISTOBAL PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK FROM NORTH ON WED TO WESTERLY BY THURS THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SEAS WILL DROP OFF FROM CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS EARLY WED MORNING DOWN TO 4 TO 5 FT WED NIGHT AND DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY THURS NIGHT. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO SEA HEIGHTS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...A RETURN FLOW AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ON SHORE AND SPIKE UP A BIT EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...MBB/REK SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/RGZ

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