Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 070529 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 129 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A DAILY RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...VIA LATEST KLTX 88D REFLECTIVITY TRENDS...THE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. AS A RESULT...THIS UPDATE WILL BASICALLY CLEAN OUT THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTION INITIATION OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THIS WILL OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF THE ILM CWA. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE UP OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS DURING THE PRE- DAWN TUE HOURS...AND MAY CLIP THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE ILM CWA AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT AND/OR MOVE TO THE N OR NE. WILL INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 BASED ON LATEST TEMP/DEWPOINT READINGS AND TRENDS. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG SINCE JUST ENOUGH OF A SFC PG TO YIELD ACTIVE S THRU SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE HIGHER THICKNESSES...BUT WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...LIKELY REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FROM MONDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT AND DRIVE AFTN CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BOUNDARIES. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT MORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVELS WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE. CONVECTION WILL WANE DIURNALLY EACH DAY...BUT CONTINUED SW WINDS WILL KEEP MINS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 75 EACH NIGHT...FALLING FROM HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE AFTNS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE CLOSE OUT ON THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXTENDING BACK AS FAR WEST AS TEXAS. WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS...AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP SOUTH CLOSE TO THE AREA. THUS HAVE KEPT WITH INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH INTO MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS IN ADDITION TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME PASSING STRATOCUMULUS...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE SEABREEZE WILL MAKE A MODEST INLAND PUSH WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS TO OUR W. IT IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES...LATER MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL SITES AND MID AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE INLAND SITES. CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS LOW AS 3KFT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM MONDAY...NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL LIKELY FIRE UP AGAIN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE N TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES...AND POSSIBLY A FEW CELLS WILL SKIRT OR EVEN MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN TO YIELD A SSW TO SW WIND DIRECTION. SYNOPTIC SFC PG TO YIELD AROUND 15 KT...EXCEPT THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING WILL RUN SSW 15 TO 20 KT UNTIL THE DEMISE OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 4 FT THRUOUT...EXCEPT A SOLID 3 TO 4 FT FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET DUE TO THE SSW-SW FETCH. LATEST WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS...AND THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS...ALL INDICATE THAT A 1.5 TO 2.0 FOOT ESE-SE GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IDENTIFIABLE DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HRS. THIS SWELL MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 FOOT DURING THE UPCOMING DAY OR 2. FOR NOW...THE SSW-SW WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND THE ESE-SE GROUND SWELL ARE NEARLY EVEN POWER-WISE WHEN LOOKING AT THEIR RESPECTIVE SPECTRAL DENSITY CHARTS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND SW WINDS TO PERSIST IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION THIS PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES TO 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. SEAS OF 3-4 FT ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SW WIND WAVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE SPECTRUM. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...AS THE WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL SEE CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KT ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF WAVE HEIGHTS...AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A BLEND OF WIND WAVES AND A LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 9 TO 10 SECONDS COMING INTO PLAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...RJD/SHK

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