Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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162 FXUS62 KILM 020524 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1224 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west and northwest over the next several days, bringing dry weather and gradually cooling temperatures. Low pressure developing to our south will bring increasing rain chances by Sunday night and continuing into Tuesday. A cold front is expected to move through the area during the midweek period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM Thursday...The 2ndry sfc cold front /trof dropping south across the FA is taking it`s time and as a result have tweaked temps/dewpts/winds for the remainder of this evening and overnight. The forecast lows from earlier remain ok. Skies to remain clear via latest satellite trends across and upstream from the ILM CWA. Previous...................................................... As of 300 PM Thursday...Although the main cold front moved through the area this morning, there is a secondary surface boundary still lingering across interior North Carolina that has yet to come through. Light winds south of this boundary should allow very good radiational cooling to develop this evening, and by 10 PM temperatures should be pretty deep into the 40s. Once the boundary slides through from the north overnight (I`m estimating 10PM- Midnight for SE North Carolina, Midnight-4AM for NE South Carolina) low-level lapse rates will steepen and boundary layer winds will increase due to intensifying cold advection, likely pushing surface temperatures back up by several degrees. Skies should remain clear tonight with perhaps a few stratocumulus clouds at the base of the subsidence inversion aloft. Lows within a couple degrees of 40 for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Surface high pressure centered over the Dakotas Friday will move to Iowa on Saturday, then across the central Appalachians Saturday night. This should keep a dry and seasonably chilly northerly breeze in place both days. Although dry weather is forecast, moisture will significantly increase in the upper levels Saturday and Saturday night as the subtropical jet is energized by a large cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula. 200 mb wind speeds of 110-130 knots are indicated on the GFS Saturday night. Highs around 60 on Friday should cool to 55-60 on Saturday due to increasingly opaque cirrus cloud cover. Lows 35-40 both nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid and high-level moisture will be on the increase Sunday well ahead of the northern Mexico closed low. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will keep the low-levels dry as northeasterly winds are likely to persist into the overnight hours. Think the overall chance for precipitation on Sunday will be low, and would be light if it occurs. Near saturation below 850 mb is expected by Monday, and the 12Z GFS continues with the idea of a coastal trough and damming setup Monday into early Monday evening. Although the onset of precip is likely to temporarily reinforce the surface wedge, the parent high is not forecast to be in an ideal location for a prolonged wedge event. However the forecast Monday-Tuesday is a little lower confidence than usual. There is agreement in the models that drying above 850 mb should begin by Tuesday afternoon with POPs trending down. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...High confidence for VFR through the valid TAF period. Light winds tonight will become northerly Friday morning, increasing to 8 to 10 kts in the afternoon hours. A shift to the west will occur in the late afternoon/evening hours, with winds becoming light and variable Friday night. Extended outlook...Clouds and precipitation expected to return at the end of the period with the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions late Sunday through Tuesday. Otherwise expect VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 PM Thursday...The 2ndry cold front/trof will continue to make southward progress across the area waters...resulting in winds veering to a WNW to NW direction after its passage. Wind speeds will increase by atleast 5 kt after its passage. Significant seas will continue their subsiding trend, even more-so when wind directions take on a true offshore trajectory. A 2 to 4 foot significant seas range will be forecast...lowest near shore and hiest at 20 nm out. Some 5 footers possible off Cape Fear where wind-sea interaction a bit more volatile given SSTS likely in the 70s whereby CAA at the ocean sfc is a bit more pronounced. This shown with JMPN7 winds currently 10 kt or less with SSTs mid 60s, and 41013 at 10 to 20+ kt with SSTs in the mid 70s. Previous....................................................... As of 300 PM Thursday...The actual cold front moved off the coast this morning, however there is a secondary boundary still hanging back across central North Carolina that should sweep offshore overnight. Westerly winds this afternoon of 15-20 kt should diminish to 10-15 kt late this evening, then should turn northerly after midnight with a short-lived increase in wind speed. Seas still as high as 4-5 feet at the nearshore buoys will only gradually diminish overnight. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure over the Plains states on Friday will build south and eastward into the central Appalachians by late Saturday. This should provide steady offshore winds with wind speeds peaking early Saturday morning at 15-20 knots. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure centered north of the waters Sunday will result in northeast flow Sunday into Sunday night. A coastal trough will be located just south of the waters, and will eventually lift north as a warm front, although there is uncertainty in the exact timing of its progression. The onset of precipitation is expected by Sunday night, and this could delay the front from lifting north until later Monday, and of course the wind direction forecast will be entirely dependent on the location of this boundary. Once it does lift north of the waters, which should occur by Tuesday, southwest flow is expected to increase and there is potential for small craft advisory thresholds being met Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CRM NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...CRM AVIATION...SGL

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