Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 151958 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 258 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the coast will result in well above normal temperatures through Friday. A cold front will move through the area Friday night, followed by cool high pressure for the weekend. Warm southerly winds will develop early next week and result in a significant warmup. A cold front will approach the area on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...A very robust west to southwest flow will continue to be provided by surface high pressure under what is mostly a zonal flow aloft. A broad shortwave will push a front just to the north of the area by late Friday. The near term period should remain mostly dry with only slight chance pops encroaching on the northern areas late. The primary headlines remain the warmth and winds. Overnight lows tonight under continued breezy conditions will not drop much down mostly remaining above 60. Guidance is advertising Friday`s highs may even be a degree or two warmer than todays readings via good downslope flow just off the surface. Gusty conditions as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure wedging in from the north behind backdoor cold front to start the period. The air behind the boundary will be seasonably cool for Saturday but widespread cloud cover will keep lows a bit elevated above seasonable norms, which are still in the upper 30s. Measurable rainfall will tend to remain north of the area with the upper level forcing, but will maintain some low POPs as the stray hundredth of an inch here or there tough to rule out.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will be offshore to start Sunday morning with cool, but not cold, high pressure moving overhead through the day. Temps Sunday will climb to near normal or slightly above, with much drier air advecting into the region allowing for ample sunshine. The front to the south will waver and lift back to the north Sunday night into early Monday morning as a warm front. This will be the beginning of a very warm period for the upcoming week, but may be accompanied by a few showers into Monday morning. Soundings suggest increasing saturation, but forcing is weak, so the front may manifest only as increasing cloud cover rather than showers. Will carry inherited SCHC/low CHC into Monday. Strong WAA develops thereafter, persisting at least into Wednesday as a summer like synoptic setup develops. Bermuda high pressure offshore and amplified mid-level ridging across the southeast will drive temps to well above normal values, near 80 Tue/Wed, with scattered WAA showers possible during the aftns. An abrupt changes occurs Thursday as a shortwave and backdoor front suppress the ridge and bring a wedge of high pressure into the Carolinas. This will return temps back to seasonable levels with better chances for rain.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...Currently VFR with sct cloud cover and southwest winds 12-16kt gusting at times to 20-24kt. These conditions will persist at all terminals through the afternoon and evening, except winds speeds/gusts should subside 22-23Z. VFR continues this evening. No BR expected as winds remain brisk overnight. GFS/GFS LAMP MOS guidance still suggesting cigs dropping at coastal terminals to IFR and inland terminals to MVFR 09-12Z. This is consistent with Hi-res forecasts. Thus confidence is increasing that IFR will occur, but for this TAF package will maintain tempo MVFR level cigs based on latest model sounding data. After 12Z MVFR cigs will likely persist through the end of the TAF valid period. Highest confidence of VFR would be KFLO/KLBT late morning. Gusty southwest winds expected. Extended Outlook...MVFR cigs becoming VFR Fri. SHRA/MVFR/tempo IFR Fri night-Sun morning. Becoming VFR Sun. Tempo MVFR/IFR/SHRA cig/vsby Sun night/Mon. VFR Tue. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will continue through the period as high pressure resides offshore. There may be a period this evening when winds briefly eclipse 20 knots. Wave guidance is showing 4-6 feet with the higher seas mostly confined to the North Carolina waters. Although its marginal, will go ahead and issue a Small Craft Advisory through Friday for these waters. A SCEC will continue for the remainder of the waters. Some sea fog remains possible as well. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Gusty NE winds Friday night as cold air high pressure wedge builds in from the north following near term backdoor FROPA. Though some flags will be in effect leading up the short term it appears now according to WNA/SWAN that conditions will be just below. SCEC headlines certainly possible for a brief period however. NE winds abate on Saturday and then turn onshore and then southerly as the boundary lifts back to the north. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Cold front will be offshore Sunday morning with high pressure ridging down from the NE thereafter. This brings gusty winds Sunday of 10-15 kts, with directions veering to the E/NE by Monday morning. The surface high will shift offshore and take up position as Bermuda type ridge Monday and Tuesday, driving increasing return flow and SW winds around 10 kts through the middle of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 ft will be common across the waters Sunday with an E/NE wind wave predominant. Seas will deamplify into early next week before a SE swell and SW wind wave amplifies late, pushing seas back to 3-4 ft late Tuesday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR MARINE...

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