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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 200723
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ELONGATE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY
CLEAVING INTO TWO INDIVIDUAL PIECES TONIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW
SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS VERY WEAK AND STORM CELL MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW TODAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW IN
THE SUMMER/TROPICAL RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST 10000 FEET OF WARM CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH
(LCL AROUND 2500 FT VERSUS AN ENVIRONMENTAL FREEZING LEVEL OF 12500
FT) THERE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATER TODAY. I DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE RADAR AND MESONET DATA SHOWS NEARLY 2.5
INCHES IN MECHANICSVILLE (DARLINGTON CO.) AND PERHAPS EVEN MORE JUST
TO THE WEST AND NORTH ALONG THE PEE DEE RIVER. MODEL INDICATIONS ARE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS JUST EAST OF THE THIS
AREA TODAY...TARGETING THE AREA FROM LUMBERTON...DILLON...MARION TO
AYNOR.

SHOWERS AND T-STORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS
MORNING WITH RADAR SHOWING MARINE CONVECTION NOW TROTTING ONSHORE
FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH THROUGH CAPE FEAR. ONCE THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
OCEAN BEHIND THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR OUT THESE SHOWERS
WITH NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND. HIGHS
SHOULD RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 TODAY...COOLEST AT THE
BEACHES WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL ONSHORE FLOW.

A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
SOUTH WINDS MAY STILL ADVECT NOCTURNAL MARINE CONVECTION ONSHORE SO
THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40 PERCENT) WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT NEAR THE
BEACHES...WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 66-69 FOR
MOST AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT A DECREASING TREND IN
CONVECTION WITH WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES AND SOME WEAK NVA BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE WITH INCREASED DRYING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE
800MB...AND THIS IS ECHOED IN PWATS FALLING TO 1.25 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION...BUT WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
LOW-CHC POP TUESDAY AND SCHC WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WED ENDS UP BEING DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL RESPOND TO BULGING HEIGHTS...RISING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S
TUESDAY INTO THE MID/UPR 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-MAY THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS...FALLING
ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE CAROLINAS.

BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE
CAUSING INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. GFS
HAS SPED UP TIMING OF FRONT CONSIDERABLY...WHICH DOESN`T MAKE A LOT
OF SENSE BASED OFF RESTRICTIVE ANTECEDENT FLOW OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...AND FAVOR THE SLOWER CMC/ECMWF WHICH HAS THE FROPA
OCCURRING FRIDAY AFTN. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DRYING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WHILE OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE
WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE
WKND...IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER...AND A BEAUTIFUL WKND APPEARS TO BE IN
STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...NIGHTTIME SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CREATE IFR
STRATUS IN FLO/LBT AFTER 08Z. ALONG THE COAST WARMER TEMPERATURES
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS...
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP NEAR HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER DAYBREAK...CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FOR CURRENT FCST HAVE KEPT IN VCSH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ALMOST
1000 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ENSURE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS...BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARINE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE THE LARGEST THREATS.

SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-4 FT AT THE CAPE FEAR AREA BUOYS IN A
COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SOUTH WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
10-15 KTS COMMON EACH DAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT TUESDAY WILL RISE TO 2-4
FT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. WHILE A DEAMPLIYFING
SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS TO START THE
PERIOD WILL VEER THROUGH THURSDAY TO THE W/SW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST FRIDAY EVE WITH DECREASED
SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL
RISE TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE FALLING
BACK TO 2-4 FT LATE FRIDAY THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW