Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 150533 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 133 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures will continue Friday as high pressure remains offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday evening as a cold front approaches. Another cold front will move through the area Sunday night. Dry and much colder air will build in behind an even stronger front Monday night. && .UPDATE...
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Only a few tweaks made to previous forecast. Winds have kept the BL well mixed, and most areas will likely remain at or above 55 degrees through morning. 6z aviation discussion below.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure maintains quiet weather overnight. Weak return flow this evening will help dew points re-establish themselves in the upper 40s to around 50 this evening. This more humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the low 50s. Light boundary layer winds tonight should keep widespread fog from developing, although patchy fog is possible near low lying swamp/wet areas and bodies of water. Remaining warm and dry on Friday. A well mixed boundary layer will keep recently recovered dew points in the mid 50s just west of the immediate coast. Minimum RH during the afternoon could drop into the 30%-40% range in these areas. Gusty winds are likely across the entire CWA with afternoon gusts up to 25 mph possible. Slightly stronger winds are possible near the coast where an afternoon sea breeze is likely. CAMs suggest shower activity will begin to approach the area late tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening. Limited instability exists during this time period and a thunderstorm is possible as this unorganized line of showers moves to the south and east. Gusty winds aloft and low level shear could combine with an isolated storm to produce a damaging wind gust or a tornado. NSSL Neural Network Convective Hazard Forecast keeps the chance of any severe weather below 5 percent indicating instability will remain the limiting factor, favoring the warmer environment to our south. Waning instability around sunset will see the threat end quickly, becoming showers and non-threatening thunderstorms by tomorrow evening. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... We`re focused on multiple weak weather systems that will bring unsettled weather through the weekend. The first system is an upper level impulse that should move eastward across the Carolinas Friday night. Models have painted varying coverage of showers and t-storms with this feature for days, but today`s 12z models are increasing the potential for measurable rain compared to yesterday`s depictions. Forecast PoPs have been increased to 60 percent and thunder will be maintained in the forecast given rather steep lapse rates aloft and model indications of upwards of 1000 J/kg of conditional instability. As the upper impulse pushes offshore Saturday morning, mid level warming and drying will build overhead, capping the atmosphere to all but shallow convection. At the surface a weak cold front, pushed south by departing low pressure well offshore, should stall near Cape Fear. Convergence along this stalled front could help a few showers linger throughout the day, but very shallow depth of instability (surface to 750 mb) should limit coverage. The front should return north Saturday night. Sunday should look similar to today or Friday with southwest winds ahead of a front plus sunshine boosting temperatures well above normal. A series of weak upper disturbances should pass across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina Sunday night, leading to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This potential convective cluster could extend northward across a portion of the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions, but model trends over the past few days have shifted southward. Another cold front should approach the coast late Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The new airmass building Monday behind the early morning front will be cooler and drier with highs anticipated to only reach the upper 60s. While most models dry the column out sufficiently for no rain chances, the GFS for several runs has been showing steep lapse rates intercepting enough residual moisture for showers to develop Monday evening along a second stronger cold front. Regardless, all models show a burst of strong cold advection developing Monday night behind this front. Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph will accompany Canadian air that should cover the area. Low temps by Tuesday morning should be in the 30s all the way down to the beaches. Fortunately there should be enough wind Monday night to keep the boundary layer well mixed and low temperatures should remain uniformly in the mid to upper 30s, even in normally colder locations. Where impacts look more likely to occur is Tuesday night. The Canadian high should be located close enough to the Carolinas for winds Tuesday night to die away after sunset. While urban areas should remain in the upper 30s for lows, this is the situation when normally colder pocosins and peatland locations can run 10 degrees colder if winds are calm. Those with agricultural interests will want to monitor Tuesday night`s forecasts closely. The Canadian high should push offshore Wednesday with southwest winds bringing warmer air into the area for Thursday, with continued dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Predominantly VFR through this evening, with flight restrictions expected to develop during last hour or two of TAF period tonight. High clouds will continue moving across, advecting from convection well to the west. This band of convection will approach our area this afternoon, though guidance depicts significant weakening as the storms cross the Appalachians. Scattered showers expected from west to east post 19z, with another band developing after 0z. Instability will be meager, so only expecting isolated thunderstorms. Gusty southwest winds develop by late morning, with gusts to 20-25 kts possible, and continuing into late afternoon. MVFR, potentially IFR, stratus and visibilities may develop as early as 4z from the southwest ahead of an approaching front. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions may linger into midday Saturday, followed by VFR late Saturday through Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions possible again Sunday night with a second cold front. VFR for the start of next week.
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&& .MARINE... Through Friday...Southerly flow tonight will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front from the west and exiting high pressure to our south and east. An increasing gradient will bring breezy conditions tomorrow. South winds become southwesterly on Friday afternoon, increasing to around 20 knots. Gusts remain below SCA thresholds through Friday afternoon even as seas increase to 3-4 feet. Friday night through Tuesday...Shower and thunderstorm potential appears to be increasing for Friday night in advance of a cold front expected to stall near Cape Fear on Saturday. Breezy southwest winds Friday evening 15-20 knots should gradually weaken and veer westerly late Friday night. Saturday`s winds should remain significantly lighter with directions mainly northeast near and north of Cape Fear, but more southerly south of Cape Fear on the opposite side of the front. The front should lift north again Saturday night with moderate southwest winds expected during the day Sunday. Another wave of showers and thunderstorms may slip across Georgia and South Carolina Sunday night, but model trends have been increasingly farther south with this feature. A cold front should push offshore Monday morning, followed by an even stronger front Monday night that stands a very good chance of producing winds above 25 knots with a Small Craft Advisory a good bet. Chilly offshore winds should continue through Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds southeastward toward the Carolinas. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. SC...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA UPDATE...VAO NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...TRA AVIATION...VAO MARINE...TRA/21

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