Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 190742 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 342 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will continue to lift off to the north leaving dry and warm weather across the area through much of the week. An increased rip current risk will linger along some beaches due to continued swells. Hurricane Maria is expected to track to the north offshore of the Carolinas during the middle of next week but uncertainty remains. Maria is a powerful hurricane, bringing increasingly strong rip currents and dangerous marine conditions to the area late this week through at least early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Hurricane Jose around 230 miles east of Hatteras will move north through today leaving weak high pressure over the coastal Carolinas. Winds will back to the NW to W aloft and lighten as Jose lifts farther away. At the surface, the winds will back even further to the W-SW as high pressure to the south begins to dominate the flow. Overall dry air upstream will flow into the area with pcp water values down below 1.25 inches this afternoon. Expect a mostly sunny afternoon but may see some low clouds through the morning hours in spots mainly along the NC coastal areas. The models are not as bullish with low clouds this morning, but should see some patchy stratus as winds back around to the NW remaining between 5 and 10 mph along the NC coast. Winds have dropped off over inland mainly, and therefore some patchy fog has developed as temps dropped into the mid 60s. Once any low clouds or fog dissipate, expect plenty of sunshine this afternoon with temps in the mid 80s. Forecast remains essentially rain free through tonight, although a shortwave will approach the Carolinas from the west. This will kick up some convection well west of local forecast area, but may see some debris clouds or even a stray shower reach close by tonight into early Wed morning. Temps overnight will drop into the mid 60s to close to 70 along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A broad and amorphous high pressure pattern will hold over eastern CONUS as distant Hurricane Jose spins and circles offshore New England. With subsidence in the wake of Jose fading, an increasingly unstable and moistening column will allow for the re-introduction of POPs to the short term. Expect at least isolated diurnally focused convection for both Wednesday and Thursday, although a couple of hard to time upper disturbances may extend POPs into the evening hours. A warming trend will make for above-average temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s both days, and lows in the upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...Persistent high pressure will be reinforced from the north Fri and Sat. Did include a small risk for a shower or thunderstorm Thu, before high pressure strengthens across the area. Did include a small risk for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze Sat and Sun. Monday`s forecast will hinge to a large degree on the track and strength of powerful Hurricane Maria and we will be watching the tropics especially closely. Tropical cyclone Jose or its remnants will be virtually stalled SE of New England late in the week and may actually begin to drift S Fri and through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is expected to be a powerful hurricane as she approaches during the weekend. Her forerunner swell energy will begin to be felt on the Carolina beaches late week which will increase the breaking wave heights and rip current risk. A high risk for rip currents is likely this weekend and early next week. Much too early to have any confidence in a track forecast for Maria as she approaches the southeast coast. Some of the models continue to show interaction between Maria and Jose early next week and Jose may play a part in the path Maria ultimately takes as she gains latitude and approaches the U.S. east coast. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s Thu and Fri and lower to mid 80s thereafter. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 06Z...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Have included some patchy MVFR ground fog at Lumberton terminal and further east along coastal NC, the chc of a few hours of low stratus is possible once again early this morning around daybreak. The winds have backed around to the N-NW from the N-NE and therefore should see fewer low clouds overall but have included a tempo for IFR ceilings between 10 and 13z for ILM. Otherwise, expect winds to back further to the W-SW through tonight remaining very light. May see some clouds reach into inland TAFS late this afternoon into early evening as a shortwave reaches into the Carolinas, but any shwrs will remain west of local terminals. Moisture profiles and soundings are very dry overnight tonight and therefore do not expect much in the way of any fog or low clouds. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions through the period are expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest risk of IFR conditions will be in the 0900-1200Z timeframe each morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Frying Pan buoy shows seas right near 6 ft and decided to leave SCA advisory up until it expires at 8 am as WNA model continues to show seas up to 6 ft over outer waters north of Cape Fear. As Jose lifts off to the north through today, high pressure to the south will dominate allowing winds to back around from the N-NW to the W and then to the W-SW overnight tonight into Wed morning. The diminishing offshore flow will allow the seas to ease although small residual swell from Jose up near 12 seconds will continue to mix in. Seas will fall to 3 ft or below by evening. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Distant Jose`s influence will be be quite minimal during the Short Term. Broad and ill-defined high pressure over the waters will keep winds in the 10 kt range, with seas of 2 to 4 ft through the period. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday...The risk for Small Craft Advisory seas is increasing this weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail through the period but will become better established from the north late week. Long period swell, the forerunners of powerful Hurricane Maria, will begin to reach our waters during this time. The swell energy looks to become significant Fri and Sat. The swell direction will be from the SE. Guidance is showing periods of around 15 seconds at Frying Pan Shoals with wave heights increasing from 4 to 5 ft Fri to 6 to 7 ft Sat. The swell will further increase Sun and Mon which will result in higher wave heights.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM Tuesday...The lower Cape Fear will continue to see high astronomical tides again with high tides today. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for water levels almost a half foot above the advisory threshold for downtown Wilmington. Minor flooding will occur around the times of high tide within an hour or so of 930 am and again around 1030 pm tonight downtown, and more coastal flood advisories are likely according to tidal predictions through at least the first day of Fall. This year the Autumnal Equinox occurs on September 22nd at 2002Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-252.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...RGZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.