Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 251026 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 626 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IF NOT BELOW NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS HAS VIRTUALLY ELIMINATED THE PATCHY FOG. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LESSER DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ACROSS THE MIDWEST...IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THIS HIGH WILL EDGE A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN THERE IS A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 8 KFT. THUS...EXPECT A SUNNY DAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE. NOCTURNAL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND THIS WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH... COINCIDENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE... WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM WSW TO W AND NW LATE TONIGHT. SUNSHINE WILL GO TO WORK ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TURN AROUND IN TEMPS THIS MORNING. THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMONLY BE IN THE MID 70S. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME. WE EXPECT THE SEABREEZE WILL BE MOVING INLAND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...CAPPING TEMPS NEARER TO THE COAST IN THE LOWER 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER MIXED ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPS...THUS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD BE MOST COMMON...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. AT THE BEACHES...READINGS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TO TAKE SOME POETIC LICENSE FROM KENNY CHESNEY...THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE "NO CLOUDS...NO PRECIP...NO PROBLEMS"...WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING SUNDAY...THEN EVOLVE TO A LONGWAVE RIDGE MONDAY WITH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER MOVING TO JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRYING...AND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TO CREATE DRY AND PRETTY MUCH CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...AS THICKNESSES RISE AND HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFFSHORE...HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TOWARDS 80 BOTH DAYS...WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY COLUMN AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT HOWEVER...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AROUND 50...WITH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND SUNNY THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...BUT A BIG AIR MASS CHANGE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN. 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC FLORIDA COAST WILL EXTEND NORTH THROUGH THE FULL LATITUDE OF THE CONUS...PRODUCING SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND DRIVING HIGH THICKNESSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL...AS A COLD FRONT DISPLACES IT FROM THE WEST. TUE/WED WILL BOTH BE QUITE WARM...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S BOTH AFTNS...AND LOWS FALLING ONLY TO THE MID 50S/NEAR 60. ALTHOUGH MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE/WED...MID-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP. STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY...AND MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE MS VLY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS ITS INTENSITY...BUT LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WILL RAISE POP TO LOW-CHC AS FORECAST PROFILES CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SATURATED...MATCHING THE EXTENDED MOS P-NUMBERS. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL...OR MOVE VERY SLOWLY...SUCH THAT IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE IF THE DRY AIR CAN WORK BACK IN BEFORE HALLOWEEN EVENING FESTIVITIES. ATTM IT LOOKS GOOD FOR HALLOWEEN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS HANGING BACK TO THE WEST COULD KEEP THE FRONT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT IS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROWING AS LOWER DEWPOINTS REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN WINDS ARE VIRTUALLY CALM. THUS...HAVE ADDED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT KLBT. LIGHT N-NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER MIDDAY...AOB 8 KT. KCRE/KMYR MAY SEE S-SW WINDS AFTER 18Z IF A WEAK SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. N TO NW WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY BACK TO SW AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL VEER WINDS BACK TO THE NW LATE TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FROM 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST WATERS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 KT FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS INTO THIS EVE...BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY W/NW WINDS EARLY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE PRIMARILY LIGHT SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS VARYING THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE COMPASS. W/NW WINDS THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY WILL REACH 15 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT MOVING AWAY FROM THE WATERS...BUT THEREAFTER THE GRADIENT WILL EASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS SPEEDS DROP TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THE DIRECTION WILL VEER FROM NW SUNDAY AFTN...TO NE BY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY SW BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST WAVE AMPLITUDES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...BUT WILL STILL BE ONLY 2-3 FT THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. SUNDAY EVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT 1-2 FT SEAS...WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH KEEPS WINDS FROM THE SW TUE AND WED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT DRIVING WINDS ONLY TO AROUND 10 KTS. VERY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE MAY OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM THE SW...THE LIGHT SPEEDS WILL KEEP SEAS AT 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS EVEN AS A SE GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...BJR/RJD MARINE...RJD/JDW

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