Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201413 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN RISING BY LEAPS AND BOUNDS...WHICH IS OF LITTLE SURPRISE GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND SHALLOWNESS OF THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION SEEN ON AREA RAOBS. EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OTHER THAN THE OCCASIONAL WISP OF CIRRUS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL ENJOY FULL SUNSHINE TODAY. THE TEMP RISES WILL SLOW DOWN NOW HAVING CHANGED FROM MIXING OUT THE INVERSION TO NORMAL DAYTIME INSOLATION. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON NO QPF OVER THE LAND AREAS WITH ONLY A LIGHT SMATTERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. REGARDING TEMPERATURES I DID ADJUST HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUESDAY VIA GUIDANCE AND MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE AS WELL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE A VERY SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST TO BASICALLY COVER A GOOD PART OF THE CONUS. STILL NO REASON TO ADD ANY POPS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMING UP INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. A SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S EARLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. AS RETURN FLOW OCCURS...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALLOWING FOR A FEW/SCT/BKN 4-5KFT CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 555 AM MONDAY...DECAYING GONZALO BACK-SWELL IS WEAK BUT REGISTERING AT LOCAL BUOY PLATFORMS...WAVE PERIODS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN LINE WITH THE NATURAL WAVE DECAY. THE OTHER PORTION OF WAVE ENERGY IS WEAK AND TIED TO WIND-SEAS/CHOP AS NE-ENE WINDS HOLD AT 10 KT OR LESS. A TRANSITION DAY TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND FROM THE SOUTH. WIND-SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 12 KT OR LESS FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO WEST 4-9 KT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE COAST. NO CAUTION STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND MORE OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH SCENARIO IS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM FROM THE NORTHEAST. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTIVE MIXING AND EXPECT ABOUT 12 HOURS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL TUESDAY 1-3 FEET...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-4 FEET WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH ABATING...CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY AS WELL WITH WIND SPEEDS HOVERING A LITTLE LOWER AROUND TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB/MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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