Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030240 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1040 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS EVE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR RUBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WSW REACHES THE AREA TOWARD MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF...SHOWING LESS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF RENEWED CONVECTION. THUS HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT INLAND. ALONG THE COAST...HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY EXITS OR JUST SLOWLY DISSIPATES IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL JETTING SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT...BUT GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN... EXPECT WE WILL SEE LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AND EXPAND. THUS...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EVEN AFTER THE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LOWER TO MID 70S. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GAUGE IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THU. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS...FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST JETTING...WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 5 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN RAISED. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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