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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 151923
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 850
TEMPS WILL RISE UP TO 18C AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PCP WATER VALUES AROUND .75 INCHES DO INCREASE ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
REACHES DOWN OVER THE RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE WILL COME AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWEST
WIND BUT WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN FROM THE BEACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES CLOSE TO THE
COAST.

MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH RUNNING DOWN THROUGH INLAND CAROLINAS AND
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OFF SHORE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RISING UP
CLOSE TO 60 F BY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING ABOVE 60
DEGREES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WARM ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD. A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
VIRGINIA THU AND THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO NORTH CAROLINA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT SHOULD GET HUNG UP N OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS GETTING CLOSE TO THE ONSLOW-PENDER COUNTY LINE BY SAT
MORNING AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED.

IN TERMS OF HOW THIS WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT WILL
REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING WELL UP INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOUCH 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE ON THU. THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST GIVEN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. THUS...
EVEN THE BEACHES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL...
MID AND UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.

THIS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 15 KFT AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS ALOFT. THE DEEP AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON FRI...THE DRY AIR SHRINKS...CONFINED
TO THE LOWEST 5-6 KFT OF THE COLUMN. THUS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE MAY BE
GREATEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WANING CONVECTION TO OUR N...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...MAY APPROACH THE AREA
FRI NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SITS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. WHILE THIS LEAVES WARM S/SW RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT STALLING VERY NEAR THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THANKS TO
RETURN FLOW IMPEDING ITS SOUTHERN MOTION...AND THE FACT THAT WE
ARE MOVING BEYOND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PERIOD FOR BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS TO SINK THIS FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...A SLOW MOVING
VORT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE OVER-
TOP THE STALLED BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POP
AND TEMPS...SINCE IF THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE CWA MAX TEMPS WILL
LOWER...AND POP WILL INCREASE. WITH BEST SUPPORT FOR FRONT
REMAINING NORTH...WILL KEEP INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LATE IN THE PERIOD...5H
HEIGHTS REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL STAY THERE. ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALSO. STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DIURNALLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 KTS ALL
NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP FOG AT
BAY. THURSDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND...NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFF SHORE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHING WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 6AM THURS
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE THEREAFTER AS GRADIENT RELAXES A
BIT WITH CONTINUED SW TO W FLOW 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
HELP KEEP SOME GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N THROUGH SAT MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON THU
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS COMPARED TO FRI.
WILL FORECAST 15 TO 20 KT THU AND 10 TO 15 KT ON FRI. EXPECT 3 TO 4
FT SEAS ON THU TO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT FOR FRI.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE PUMPING S/SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO
SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY VEERING OF WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF AMZ250...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. WHILE THE FRONT STAYS NORTH...S/SW WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10
KTS...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE
COMMON DURING THE WKND...GROWING TO 2-4 FT MONDAY THANKS TO THE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RGZ/DL