National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 152319
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...A SORT OF DOUBLE-RIDGE-AXIS HIGH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS HAS DRIFTED EAST THIS EVE...AND THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL
BECOME DOMINANT TONIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S WILL ONLY
SLOWLY RECOVER TONIGHT...AND A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST REMAINS FOR
THE NIGHT.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS OFFSHORE HIGH
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN RETURN FLOW. WHILE WINDS WILL
NOT GET VERY STRONG OVERNIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WEAK
SURFACE WAA TO KEEP MINS ABOVE MOS NUMBERS AND ELIMINATE IDEAL
LONGWAVE COOLING. THIS IS ECHOED BY ONLY A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION
IN FORECAST PROFILES...WHICH ALL OTHER PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST
SHOULD BE QUITE STEEP. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR MINS...WITH LOWS FALLING TO 62-65 INLAND...65-68 AT THE
COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ONE MORE DAY OF FAIR
AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER BEFORE MOISTURE LEVELS MORE TYPICAL
RETURN MONDAY.  INCREASED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.  MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY SHOULD REACH THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.  MINIMUMS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE TUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT LESS SO FOR STRONG STORMS. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWATS OVER 2 INCHES. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING LIMITED TO POTENTIAL SEA
BREEZE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. HAVE BUMPED POP TO LIKELY FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED THEN STALLS AS WEAK 5H
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES BOUNDARY PARALLEL.
EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE HIGHEST POP WILL
BE...BOTH GFS/ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO WARRANT CARRYING A CHC POP FOR EACH DAY. HARD TO NAIL DOWN
WHICH DAY HAS BETTER/BEST PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS POINT IN TIME SO
WILL CARRY CHC POP EACH DAY FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH
LOWS ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMS THRU THIS TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS AOB 5 KTS...
BECOMING CALM NEAR DAYBREAK. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LIGHT GROUND FOG INLAND FROM
AROUND 09-11Z CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SCT CU 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS
ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS INCREASING LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE. VFR ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. EVEN WITH THIS
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...KEEPING SEAS ONLY 1-2 FT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER IN A TYPICAL RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE S
TO SW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST AND GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KT BUT HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EVENT MAY END UP BEING A MARGINAL LIMITED DURATION
SCA WITH SEAS NEAR 20 NM APPROACHING 6 FT. FRONT REACHES THE WATERS
BY WED MORNING WITH BOUNDARY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...LESS
THAN 10 KT...THOUGH WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SEAS WILL DROP FROM
3 TO 5 FT WED MORNING TO 2 TO 3 FT THU.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...XXXI
NEAR TERM...XVII
SHORT TERM...XXXI
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...XII