Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 122035 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 335 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THIS WEEKEND. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT MARLBORO...ROBESON...AND BLADEN WHERE THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS PRECIP IS LIKELY TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HENCE THE SHORT EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY. SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THE LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES RAPIDLY DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO POINT TO LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS STARTS SPILLING INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS DROP 12C TO 14C FROM THIS EVENING TO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S. STRONG ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOWS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH NEAR DAYBREAK WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR OF THE SEASON. AS THIS ARCTIC HIGH IS BUILDING IN...IT WILL BRING GUSTY NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND MINUS 10 DEG C AND AS COLD AS MINUS 10 DEG C. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPS ON SAT...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE...WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...IT WILL FALL SHORT OF 40. IT WILL FEEL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...ONLY IN THE 20S. AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP. WE ARE NOT FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE WHICH SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM MAXIMIZING. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH THAT...WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THIS WILL BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD AS THE WIND CONTRIBUTION WILL MAKE IT FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. IT IS LIKELY A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 5 DEG SET IN 1899/18 FLORENCE: 15 DEG SET IN 1968/18 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 DEG SET IN 1955/19 THEN ON SUN...NOT MUCH OF A WARMUP. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER OUT OF THE 30S AND IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS EXCEED 32 DEG. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST...A COASTAL TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR ICE PELLETS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS RISK. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO INSULATE THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S SUN NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY TUES MORNING. CENTER OF LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SW-W THROUGH TUES AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND PCP TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUES. QPF MAY BE UPWARDS OF AN INCH BY TUES MORNING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY ON TUES...ONE MORE MINOR SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN MID TO UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW END PCP AS IT PASSES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WED THROUGH FRI. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP RISE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS BELOW 0C WILL WARM TO 8C BRINGING TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AT OR ABOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE. ONCE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE COAST EARLY THURS...MAY SEE A BRIEF COOLING BEFORE H5 HEIGHTS RISE LATE THURS INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY FRI ALLOWING FOR WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY FRI. THEREFORE MAY SEE A LITTLE DIP IN TEMPS ON THURS BUT OVERALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CURRENTLY KLBT IS THE TAF WITH THE MOST WINTRY MIX. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 1ST 3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THEN CLEAR OUT. CEILING AND SKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FLIRT AT THE COAST WITH SOME IFR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PULLS AWAY ALL SITES SHOULD SWITCH TO IFR BETWEEN 02 AND 04 UTC. A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY MORNING SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 TO 16 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUST INCREASING AFTER 13 UTC. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE OFF THE COAST BECOMES MORE DEFINED. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENING. DURATION OF LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS BUT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS...SHOULD SEE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH 7 FT RESTRICTED TO THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SAT NIGHT...THEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY SUN NIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NNW TO N SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN VEER TO NE SUN AND THEN BECOME E OR SE SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY TUES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING ON SHORE SE WINDS ON MONDAY UP TO 15 TO 25 KT PUSHING SEAS RAPIDLY UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT EARLY MONDAY UP CLOSE TO 8 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INCREASING FURTHER AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OUT OF THE S-SW BY TUES MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MON EVENING. SEAS MAY INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH TUES BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A STRONGER WESTERLY OFF SHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND KEEPING HIGHEST SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY TUES AFTN. WNA SHOWS PEAK IN SEAS UP NEAR 11 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BY TUES AFTN. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS IT DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE WED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.