Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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000
FXUS62 KILM 140542
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
142 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high
pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
return Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Unsettled
weather may continue through Sunday night ahead of a stronger
cold front. Dry and much colder air will build in for Monday and
Tuesday next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Tonight: No change to the forecast through sunrise. Lows will
end up near to slightly above normal as dewpoints rebound into
the 40s this evening, leading to mid- upper 40s for lows. With
light or calm winds expected, some normally cooler spots may dip
to near 40F.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A pair of upper level disturbances will cross the Carolinas
this weekend, providing two potential shots of showers and
thunderstorms. Neither look particularly strong and forecast
rain chances are currently 50 percent or less for each system.
Surface high pressure will drift away from the Carolina coast
Friday, allowing unseasonably warm air to bleed northeastward
across the Carolinas. Thursday looks warm but Friday looks even
warmer as 850 mb temps of +13 to +14C support highs in the lower
80s for all but the immediate coast. Moisture should increase
from the west late Friday afternoon as the first upper
disturbance approaches and this should support increasing
coverage of showers. Forecast soundings show enough depth of
conditional instability to support thunder chances in the
forecast, but rapid storm motion should keep precipitation
totals rather low.
A synoptic cold front pushed southward by low pressure off
coastal New England should stall in the Cape Fear region
Saturday morning. Despite the increase in low level convergence
with the stalled boundary, drier and warmer mid levels should
limit instability to a shallow layer below 750 mb and forecast
PoPs Saturday are being capped at 20 percent.
The second upper disturbance will reach the area late Sunday,
accompanied by a similar increase in mid level moisture with
attendant increases in forecast shower and thunderstorm
potential. Unlike yesterday, the Canadian and ECMWF have both
shifted their QPF max southward with this system, leaving the
GFS as the only model suggesting high precip chances locally.
I`m limiting PoPs to around 40 percent Sunday night. Another
surface low moving across southern Canada will drag a cold front
toward the Carolina coast late Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A Canadian cold front will push farther offshore Monday,
allowing colder and much drier Canadian air to spread across the
Carolinas and offshore. 850 mb temps look to fall below 0C
Monday night, bottoming around near -5C during the day Tuesday.
A breezy boundary layer Monday night should keep temps from
crashing (forecast lows are currently upper 30s inland) but
Tuesday night could be touchier as the center of the Canadian
high approaches and winds drop off. After highs only in the
upper 50s Tuesday, Tuesday night`s lows could dip low enough for
frost to become a concern. There`s plenty of time to watch
trends on this.
Otherwise dry weather is expected through the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR. Clear skies. Light winds as high pressure maintains
influence over the area. Southerly sea breeze will develop
around 17z before pushing inland as land temps soar into the low
80s. Sea breeze gusts may reach 10-15 knots.
Extended Outlook...A couple cold fronts will affect the area
over the weekend, bringing the next chance for a couple periods
of flight restrictions, mainly Friday night through Saturday
night and again from Sunday night into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Through Thursday: Surface high pressure will remain off the
coast of the Southeast US through the period, bringing benign
marine conditions. Southerly wind waves of 1-2 ft with a period
of 4 sec this evening and tonight will settle down to around 1
ft for Thursday. A healthy sea breeze can be expected tomorrow
as southerly winds help to push it inland, with gusty winds
behind it.
Thursday night through Monday: High pressure off the Carolina
coast will drift farther offshore Friday as a cold front
advances eastward across the Southeast states. Initially light
southwest winds Thursday night will begin to increase on Friday,
peaking near 20 knots late Friday afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday
night. It still appears we will get through this event without a
Small Craft Advisory becoming necessary. Objective model blends
only show a 20-40 percent chance of gusts reaching 25 knots
Friday evening. Winds should diminish and become variable in
direction Saturday morning as the front stalls across Cape Fear.
Wind directions will turn back to the southwest again Saturday
night into Sunday as another frontal wave reaches the Carolinas
by Sunday night. As this system clears offshore Monday morning
increasing northwest winds are expected as sprawling Canadian
high pressure begins to build southeastward.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...