Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 152340 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 740 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO WANE AS PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARS MORE STRATIFORM THAN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS THAT A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS MOVING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. NO LIGHTNING IS DETECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA OR IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AT PRESENT AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT HAVE DE-EMPHASIZED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HAVE ALSO DECREASED OVERALL QPF TOTALS. NOW EXPECTING EVENT TOTALS IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS INLAND. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES OUT QUITE DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT POST- FROPA...ACTUALLY BY A WHOLE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE...TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. THE BIG NEWS AND RESULTING FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DRAMATIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF COLD ADVECTION AS STRONG NORTH WINDS SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER AND EVEN MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. HAVE STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OUR INLAND AREAS. GIVEN THE STRONG ONGOING MIXING AND RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT SEE HOW WE CAN GET DOWN TO FREEZING AS SOME MOS NUMBERS WOULD SUGGEST. WINDS WILL ALSO PRECLUDE RISK OF FROST OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY) RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL. THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS: RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17: WILMINGTON, NC - 34 FLORENCE, SC - 33 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32 HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO AND WILL END AT KLBT BY 01Z. NW-N WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR 00-01Z AND KILM 01-02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FROPA...WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KCRE/KILM. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND N-NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2:00 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES UPON THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL DROP BY A FOOT OR SO NEAR SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH...ALTHOUGH WILL STAY IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CREATING GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE AT 20-30 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLOWLY DECREASING SPEEDS TO 10-15 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A N/NE WIND WAVE...WITH AMPLITUDES OF 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY FALLING TO 4-6 FT THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL WAVE-SHADOW REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE NE WINDS GET BLOCKED...AND THUS WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE JUST 1-3 FT LOCALLY IN THE NEAR SHORE PORTIONS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ254. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF THURSDAY...AND MAY NEED FURTHER EXPANSION INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER UPDATES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WILL BE FOUND IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY IT WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE FORECAST ZONES LIE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAND AND A SURFACE TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. THIS MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT PINCH FOR SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT SEAS BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS BOTH FEATURES WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STATE. SATURDAY BRINGS A RENEWED PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST BUT THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL NO LONGER BE A PLAYER. THIS BACKS THE FLOW A BIT TO NORTHERLY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO SUNDAY LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJR NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/JDW/MBB/BJR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.