Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 201024 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 624 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THAT WILL AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS PERIOD. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY. A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. OVERALL... LOOKING AT 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES. STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY. INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED. HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2 AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 610 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO NORTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DCH/SGL

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