Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021821 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 221 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A SUMMER LIKE AIR MASS HOLDING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS. WITH STRONG HEATING AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...TEMPS SOARED ABOVE 90 MOST PLACES...WITH SEA BREEZE DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND SLOWLY IT WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BUT PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP SHWRS AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART. OVERALL...EXPECT FLATTER CU TO MIX WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE INTO TONIGHT....MAINLY VISIBLE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING DOWN FROM THE NW. MODELS SHOW ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER NC/VA BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES OUR NW CWA BOUNDARY LATE EVENING...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE A FEW STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS REACH OUR NORTHERN TIER BUT OVERALL EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS MOVING DOWN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS HOLDING UP IN THE 70S MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...LIGHT WSW-NW WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY SCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW-W THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THUS HAVE NOT ADDRESSED IN TAFS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MVFR VSBYS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. THE CHANCE OF IFR IS LOW DUE TO CLOUD COVER HOWEVER SINCE KLBT MAY SCT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IF IFR OCCURS IT WILL BE THERE. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH W-NW WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH WILL BE STRUNG OUT FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOCALLY THROUGH TODAY. BASICALLY FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ON SHORE GUSTIER WINDS...BASICALLY SE-S. WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS...SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH. AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR

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