Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 181919 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 319 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored off the Carolina Coasts through the weekend, helping to maintain fair and very warm conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase early next week ahead of a cold front from the west. Next week will become a bit more unsettled as a series of low pressure systems cross the Eastern Seaboard. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Thursday...As diurnal heating dwindles, cumulus will gradually dissolve into the night sky, leaving mainly a clear dome overnight. Patches of fog will develop after 4AM inland but extensive coverage is not expected due to nocturnal winds a few hundred yards above the surface and a thin saturated layer. Minimums to settle in the middle 60s inland, upper 60s coastal interior, and around 70 from the ICW to the coast. Friday a similar day to today very warm, with no precipitation expected. One subtle difference, a weak H8 high will drift offshore, allow a boost in mositure at that level to advect onshore. This should serve to deepen diurnal cumulus somewhat but still too dry aloft for convective rainfall it appears. Similar to today we expect variable cirrus to glide overhead in WSW H2-H4 aloft. Maximums Friday near 90 inland, upper 80s coastal interior from sea breeze advancement, and middle 80s along the ICW corridor and coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM Thursday...Some changes in the synoptic pattern can be expected for the first time in several days during the short term. The persistent mid level ridge over the southeast pushes south a bit with a subtle trough developing along the east coast. This will push a back door cold front into the region late in the period but with little moisture to work with, pops remain minimal. Daytime highs Saturday will once again be in the middle 80s along the coast to near 90 inland with overnight lows in the middle 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Thursday...Short wavelength but high amplitude ridge will persist one last day on Sunday, impeding the progress of a strong cold front digging into the MS VLY. While high level cloud cover is expected to be extensive on Sunday, precip will be mostly held off until late Sunday night, and temps will rise again well into the 80s. Note that the GFS keeps Saturday`s back door cold front wavering in the vicinity the first half of Sunday, but this is an outlier in the guidance and not supported by increasing southerly flow ahead of the aforementioned MS VLY front. Will lean more on the warmer/drier ECM/CMC solution for Sunday. Thereafter, a period of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures develops as broad troughing sets up across the eastern CONUS. This will initially setup behind a cold front which will cross offshore Monday night. Strong warm and moist advection ahead of this feature combined with mid-level PVA and possible weak cyclogenesis suggests shower and tstm chances will be good much of Monday before drying behind the front into Tuesday morning. Temps Mon/Tue will fall back to seasonable norms, but even this will be warmer than what is expected by mid-week. Even cooler temps Wed/Thu are likely as an anomalously deep trough develops across the upper Great Lakes and digs into the Mid-Atlantic. Impulses rotating around this feature will create periods of showers and tstms, best chance on Wednesday, and as 850mb temps drop potentially back into the single digits, temps will likely fall below climo at the end of the long term.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR this TAF cycle with exception of 2-3 miles in mist inland prior to daybreak, burning off a few hours after sunrise. S-SSW wind gusts to 22 KT occasionally at coastal terminal until 23z-00z, then SSW-SW 7 KT or less overnight. Diurnal afternoon cumulus will dissolve aft 00z leaving thin strands of cirrus overnight SCT-BKN200. Extended Outlook...Flight categories may lower to IFR or lower during the pre-dawn hours of Sat. Reduced flight categories will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms that develop on Monday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday...Summer-like pattern to prevail into Friday with S-SW winds 10-15 KT and gusts to 20 KT inshore with an active sea breeze circulation. A few showers may dot the Gulf Stream but not likely within 20 NM. Seas 2-3 feet Friday with 4-5 second wind-waves from the S mixed with SE swell of around 1 foot. No visibility restrictions are expected on the waters. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Thursday...Although the synoptic mid level pattern will start to shift this period, really no change is expected with the Bermuda High that is dominating the coastal waters. South to southeast winds will prevail with speeds hovering around ten knots. Significant seas will be around two feet. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Thursday...Winds will veer Sunday through Monday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. East winds around 10 kts early Sunday will veer to the S/SW late Sunday, and then increase in speed to 15-20 kts during Monday. The cold front will cross offshore early Tuesday with a wind shift to the NW and an reduction in speed as high pressure builds briefly into the area. A return to S/SW winds will occur late in the period ahead of another cold front. Wave heights will build to 3-4 ft Monday during the period of strongest winds ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, seas will be 1-3 ft both Sunday and Tuesday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MJC

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