Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 190819 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 319 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in behind exiting low through today. This high extending down the east coast from Canada will shift farther off the coast through mid week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm through much of the week. Chance of showers will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...Although an isolated light sprinkle is possible early this morning as an upper disturbance transits the region, the radar is now clear of echos and an increasingly dry column means silent pops most places through the early morning hours. An upper disturbance moves offshore this morning as ridging at the surface and aloft builds in. Already remote chances for a sprinkle will come to an end and the resulting very weakly cold advective regime will knock temperatures back a couple of degrees from yesterdays readings, but they will continue to be unseasonably mild through the near term. A consensus of guidance gives us highs of around 70 today and a little cooler at the beaches. Overnight lows will be upper 40s most places and lower 50s at the beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue through the short term as an elongated ridge centered well to the north in Canada slowly transits the region. Dry low and mid levels and no triggers means no precip is likely through much of the period. There is the off chance of a sprinkle Tuesday night as a broad upper trough approaches the eastern seaboard, but lack of low level moisture makes chances of measurable precip seem remote. High cloud cover will increase, however, and this will help keep daytime temperatures on Tuesday a few degrees cooler than Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...High pressure shifts off shore over the western Atlantic becoming dominant feature Wednesday through Friday. Initially shortwave will be exiting the southeast coast Wed morning. May see some lingering clouds early Wed but overall, a warm return flow in more of a spring like pattern will maintain warm weather with temps well above normal. Will see some clouds in the mix Wed and Thurs with a greater amount by Friday as low level flow increases out of the southwest as cold front begins to approach from the west. Pcp water values below an inch Wed and Thurs will reach above 1.5 inches on Fri. Increased potential for convection will come late Fri into Saturday as cold front moves through the Carolinas. The GFS shows faster arrival with best chc of convection overnight Fri into early Sat while the ECMWF shows a much drier frontal passage with FROPA Sat night. Either way, expect increased clouds and shwr activity Fri night into Saturday. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind this front for the latter half of the weekend. Temps well into the 70s Wed through Sat will only reach into the 60s on Sunday. Overnight lows between 55 and 60 most nights will drop down to 45 to 50 overnight Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...An upper vort will try to rotate through the area, however the HRRR model keeps dissipating the precip as it tries to enter the CWA. Will keep the current VCSH in place with only a sprinkle possible. Will probably stay with a mid cloud ceiling at most sites. Some MVFR fog is possible after 08Z, confidence mod/low. Sunday, northwest flow on the backside of the surface low pressure, scattered skies. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected. Chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will keep winds light and westerly at around 10 kts today with seas of only around 2 ft. Winds will turn to the NW at around 10 kts tonight with seas remaining in the 2 ft range. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday....Weak high pressure transiting the waters will keep winds in the 10 to 15 kt through much of the period. Seas will remain right around 2 ft for both days for most places, with 3 footers present well offshore. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...A return flow develops on Wednesday as high pressure takes residence over the western Atlantic. A S to SW wind around 10 kts or less will persist Wed and Thurs in a more Spring-like pattern. Winds will back and spike up each afternoon near shore as sea breeze develops. Seas will remain 3 ft or less through the period with a slight increase by Fri morning as southerly winds begin to increase.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...REK

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