Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281528 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1028 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. DRY BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST BY BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. CIRRUS WILL FIRST SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO THICKEN. MOST AREAS ARE CLEARER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING SO DID BUMP HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS/INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE 850MB RIDGE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES TO 3K-5K FT BY EVENING. LAYER BELOW 3K FT WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE LOW LEVELS DO MOISTEN UP AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING AND TEMPS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NUMEROUS REASONS. THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID PRECIP WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH A HUNDREDTH OR TWO THE HIGHEST CONCEIVABLE AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE HELPING TO COOL/DRY THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE PRECIP IS FALLING BUT T/TD SPREAD REMAINS A QUESTION. CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHILE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO WET BULB TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING INSTEAD OF JUST BELOW. SO WHILE EVAPORATION COOLING WILL TRY TO DROP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING NOT SURE IF IT WILL HAPPEN. BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS INLAND SC COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES ACROSS INLAND NC. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAKENING WEDGE WILL BE EXPERIENCING OVERRUNNING OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ON SUNDAY. VERY EARLY ON THIS MAY POSE A BIT OF A FREEZING RAIN THREAT OVER FAR INLAND ZONES. EVEN SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF OUTPUT KEEPS THE PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA AS DOES WPC. JUST TO BE SAFE WILL CARRY LOW POPS AND INDICATE PERHAPS 3 HOURS OF POSSIBLE ZR. LATER ON SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE APPRECIABLE. THE WRF TENDS TO CONFINE THINGS INLAND WHERE THE UPGLIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST BUT THE GFS FAVORS RAIN JUST ABOUT AREA-WIDE. GIVEN THE WELL DEVELOPED COASTAL TROUGHINESS THIS SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE WEDGE THERE MAY BE FLAT TEMP TRENDS OR EVEN SOME NON DIURNAL RISING WHILE CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM WARRANTED. THE WAA SHUTS OFF MONDAY SEEMINGLY AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SO MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING RATHER LIMITED IN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HOWEVER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME...BUT STILL BELOW BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGH MOVES INTO PA MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS. OVERRUNNING MAY KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY BUT MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO HOLD OFF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY`S THEME OF CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER CERTAINLY NOTHING NEW AS OF LATE FOR THE AREA. BUT THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE WEDGE WILL BRING LESS CHILL THAN THE WEEKEND WEDGE SETUP. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST AS THEW WEDGE BREAKS DOWN BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY END UP GETTING SHUNTED NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE POSSIBLY STILL RATHER CLOUDY WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MILDEST AFTERNOON IN SOME TIME HERE IN THE CAROLINAS AS LOW TO MID 70S APPEAR QUITE ATTAINABLE IN A MODERATE PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL ONCE AGAIN OF SOME COOLER AIR BUT PROBABLY LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR FAIRLY SEASONABLE HIGHS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR EAST. BROAD TROUGHINESS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID TWO CATEGORIES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL [PRODUCE NE WINDS SUSTAINED AOB 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE 2-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE ENDS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS LIGHT RAIN BREAKS OUT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR SUNDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS WITH NEARSHORE GRADIENT REMAINING PINCHED. 20 TO 25 KT NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY WILL START TO EASE UP LATE TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP AND GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN RESPONSE TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A BIT OF A SQUEEZE PLAY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN WEAKENING OVERLAND WEDGE AND SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LATTER GETS TO SHORE. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WINDS TURN QUICKLY BACK TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS BOTH FEATURES WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TAKES OVER. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY KEEPS FLOW RATHER LIGHT AND VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PERIOD ENDS WITH NE FLOW AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO SET UP. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...NE WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA REGION. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE ACQUIRING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS OPENS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP TO A BROAD SWATH OF FLOW AROUND WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ALLOWS SOME ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND/OR SEAS INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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