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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141812
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
212 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING OFF SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GIVING WAY TO A WARMING TREND AND
GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
AROUND BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THEREFORE THIS WILL BE THE
LAST DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...70 TO 75 MOST PLACES.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 30S. PCP WATER VALUES WILL
RUN AROUND A HALF INCH IN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT UNDER PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE.

MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING BY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY HELP THROW A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...BUT OVERALL CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS MAY SPIKE UP
OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT SW WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS
MOST PLACES BUT SOME AREAS TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TOWARD MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF WAA. 850 TEMPS RISE FROM 3C
THIS MORNING UP TO 13C BY EARLY WED MORNING. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL
RISE UP INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES....BUT MAY BE
A BIT TRICKY WITH WINDS PICKING UP TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST LIKELY
WILL SEE A SHARP DROP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND TEMPS SPIKING UP TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONED FROM A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH TO ESSENTIALLY A
WESTERLY PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY WARM WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS PATTERN BEFORE A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVES
ACROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS PAINTING A LITTLE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT WORK. THE
OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS AND WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. NO OTHER CHANGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNS OF
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT ANY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE FURTHER DOWN THE
LINE. OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WITH POPS EACH DAY MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE BUT
OVERALL READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST RIGHT
AROUND TAF ISSUANCE TIME...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST. THIS SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...TIGHTENING QUITE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. OTHER THAN CONTRAILS...LITTLE
TO NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE HEADING INTO WED MORNING. WINDS
AROUND WILL SHIFT AROUND BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND VARIABLE AS
THEY LIGHTEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER
OVERHEAD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REACHES DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND TROUGH
EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH THE INLAND CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KTS BY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS. SPEEDS
WILL GET A LITTLE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY ON THE LOWER END OF A 20-25
KNOT RANGE. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY A FEW SIX FOOTERS. HEIGHTS WILL
DROP A BIT THURSDAY TO 2-4 FEET.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER
NEARSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON...FULLY
INDICATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN. NOT SURPRISINGLY...WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MINOR SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL