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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 151357
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
957 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 10:00 AM SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND AN H/5 UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH LESS EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AFTER A RELATIVELY CRISP START FOR MIDDLE JUNE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL CLIMATE READINGS UNDER
PLENTY SUNSHINE TODAY. LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S THIS AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION IN WIND DIRECTION WILL
OCCUR TODAY...AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING MIGRATES OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMPT LIGHT SE WINDS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION IN THE MID AND LATE AFTN.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...AND OFFSET A BIT
FROM LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60 TO NEAR 70 NEAR AT THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL OCCUR LATE
IN THE PERIOD WHEN FORECAST MODELS ARE ADVERTISING POPS...MAINLY
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WITH A WIDE RANGE OF LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST
APPROACHING 90 EXTREME WESTERN AREAS AS THE REFRESHING AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE MODIFIES QUICKLY. LOWER DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN
DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON THE COMFORTABLE
SIDE.

FOR MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAKE A CONSIDERABLE JUMP
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. FORCING IS WEAK BUT
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CATALYST FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS WHILE FINE
TUNING TO EMPHASIZE THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
REGRADING THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OUT WEST
WITH MODEST RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE EAST A MODEST
TROUGH OR WHAT COULD BETTER BE DESCRIBED AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
PATTERN DEVELOPS. AMPLITUDE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WHICH MAKES A FRONT...ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MORE LETHARGIC. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE USED SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED WPC POPS FOR THE PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO FIND SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING WITH THE SUMMER TIME EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES COMBINING WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHICH SHOW NO SUBSTANTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST
FLOW THIS MORNING...LIKELY REPLACED WITH A SOUTHEAST RESULTANT
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
APPALACHIANS MAY DRIFT IN THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED AFTER 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:00 AM SATURDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCH DOWNWARDS TODAY TO AROUND 2 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT MORNING WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SE-S THROUGH
AFTERNOON BECOMING SW OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT.
2-3 FOOT SEAS CAN BE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TNGT...IN A MIX OF
LIGHT SOUTHERLY CHOP AND LONGER PERIOD SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY
8-10 SECONDS. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER IN A TYPICAL RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS SHOULD HOVER IN A 2-3 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN FULL FORCE WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND INCREASING THE GRADIENT
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS SOME CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST BUT LACK
OF ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTORTION OF WIND
FIELDS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
AND POSSIBLY 3-5 FEET. THE WAVEWATCH HAS HIGHER VALUES WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER FRONT MOVING ACROSS WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK