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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 110545
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a cold frontal passage later
Thursday and Thursday night which will bring the potential for
a few severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening. High
pressure will then gradually return into early next week
bringing dry weather and increasing temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes with the latest update.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Quiet conditions hold through about midnight before shower chances
start to increase ahead of a frontal system. The ridge axis will
push offshore tonight ahead of a deep trough, the associated low off
to our west with a warm front approaching through the morning. The
warm front will push through Thursday afternoon from the south with
a line of showers and storms moving across the area. Our area is
currently in a Marginal risk (threat 1 of 5) for severe weather,
with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts and a possible
tornado. As the line moves through so will a 50-60 kt LLJ overhead,
with stronger storms possibly mixing these gusts down to the
surface. Outside of convection, gusts should be 30-35 kts. The
limiting factor will be instability (~300-500 J/kg) as we`ll be
cloudy all day but there will be plenty of shear (60-70 kt). The
main line of showers/storms should reach the SE NC coast by the end
of the period with lower shower chances behind it for any trailing
showers. Rainfall totals look between 1-2" at this time. Lows in the
low to mid 60s with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Isolated severe storms possible Thursday evening
*High surf along south-facing beaches Thursday night into early
 Friday morning

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: A cold front will sweep through SE NC and NE SC Thursday
evening bringing high rain chances and a low risk for isolated
severe storms. As usual, there is plenty of deep layer shear
(50+ kt) but instability should be minimal (SBCAPE ~1000 J/kg or
less). Damaging winds look to be the main hazard but an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Drier and cooler high
pressure will then build in through Friday night. However, can`t
completely rule out a few light showers/sprinkles Friday
afternoon/evening, especially in NC, as a strong upper shortwave
trough moves through. Breezy conditions will persist Friday
with some gusts over 30 mph likely in the afternoon. Temps will
be above normal Thursday night, back closer to normal
Friday/Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Warming trend into early next week
*Possible elevated fire danger this weekend depending on fuel
 conditions

Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: Weak troughing/zonal flow aloft will persist this weekend
with a bit more ridging thereafter which will help keep it dry.
Temps will be on a warming trend to well above normal levels with at
least lower 80s inland Sunday and mid 80s likely inland
Monday/Tuesday. We trended the dewpoints lower into early next week
and with breezy conditions also expected an elevated fire danger
could develop assuming fuel conditions become dry enough.

We trended the dewpoints lower into early next week and with breezy
conditions also expected an elevated fire danger could develop
assuming fuel conditions become dry enough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread MVFR ceilings expected to develop over the next 6
hours. Moist airmass will maintain predominantly low clouds and
light to moderate rainfall through Thursday afternoon. There
will likely be brief improvements to VFR during the period, but
impossible to pinpoint any intermittent improvements at this
time. IFR ceilings will be possible, especially inland, during
the day Thursday. Low visibilities expected within moderate to
heavy rain showers, with slight chance of thunder during
afternoon and evening hours. VFR to build in from west to east
at the end of the period.

Southerly winds will dominate the area through TAF period, with
increasing wind speeds and gusts overnight into Thursday. Wind
gusts 30-35 kts forecasted beginning 15z. Have included LLWS at
coastal terminals for the last 4-6 hours of TAF period (Thursday
afternoon/evening) as south winds at 2000 ft increase to 50-60
kt.

Extended Outlook...Conditions will be improving Thursday night,
with VFR forecasted for daytime Friday through Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...S`ly winds and seas will increase tonight ahead
of a frontal system, SCA conditions becoming established by Thursday
morning. A line of strong showers and storms will move over the
waters during the afternoon and evening, with gale force gusts and
waterspouts possible.

Thursday night through Monday...Poor marine conditions expected
into Friday night with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Could
see some gale force (>=34 kt) gusts through the first half of
Thursday night, especially associated with showers/storms. Thus,
a Gale Watch is also in effect. More tranquil conditions are
then expected Saturday/Saturday night as high pressure builds in
with some worsening of the conditions again early next week as
an inland trough develops leading to an increasing pressure
gradient, although a Small Craft Advisory is not anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is likely at times into Thursday night due to
strengthening onshore winds ahead of a cold front, especially during
the evening high tides along the lower Cape Fear River but possibly
also along the SE NC and NE SC beaches. Unusually low tide levels
are likely late Thursday night/early Friday morning due to strong
offshore winds behind a cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Friday for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.
     Gale Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...VAO/21
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM