Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161519 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1119 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS FRONT...PROVIDING FALL-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE...BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OUTER BANKS NEAR MIDDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE SKIRTS OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. STRONGER HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHERE CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP INITIALLY. MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL. THE SEABREEZE MAY BECOME AN AREA OF INITIATION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH MORE INLAND AREAS FAVORED LATER IN THE DAY. WILL CONFINE POPS TO SMALL CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE THOSE OF MONDAY...LOWER TO MID 80S. UPPER 80S ARE WITHIN REACH SHOULD CLOUDS DIMINISH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COMMONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL AS IT BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF AND THIS MAY OCCUR IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SPEED CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT. WITH SOUNDINGS RELATIVELY DRY HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS...A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS...MODERATED BY THE WINDS AND EXPECTED BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO AT THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOWS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT IS A MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDS WELL DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED MAINLY OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEAK GRADIENT...MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT...REALLY THE SAME FRONT THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND FOR OVER A WEAK...WILL DROP IN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WE WILL SEE TODAY. THINK MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SMALL BATCH THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. CEILINGS ARE GOING TO BOUNCE AROUND THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. TONIGHT...FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH POST FRONTAL STRATUS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED AS COOLER AIR WEDGES INTO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THU. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AS THE COOL AIR WEDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS AND WHILE WEAK TODAY...SWELL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM...2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND UP TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. THE DIRECTION WILL BE ENE TO EASTERLY...BACKING TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASSERTIVE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...GENERALLY A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND THERE MAY BE A LITTLE VEERING DUE TO SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE A BIT THURSDAY WITH A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WITH AN INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 3-7 FEET AND LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. FOR SATURDAY THE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS HOWEVER REMAIN ELEVATED AS A SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT IS ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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