Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 011734 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1234 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moved offshore this morning and high pressure will build in from the west over the next several days, bringing dry weather and gradually cooling temperatures. Low pressure developing to our south will bring increasing rain chances next week, particularly on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 PM Thursday...The cold front is now well offshore and drier air is building into the coastal Carolinas on westerly winds. Visible satellite imagery shows the solid deck of clouds are offshore, however a thin line of shallow cumulus exist along a wind shift between Lumberton and Fayetteville. Dewpoints have fallen into the 40s, with 30s noted across central South Carolina. The aforementioned wind shift axis has a relative maxima in dewpoints with 45-50 degree readings noted there. Forecast highs have been increased slightly again, with highs expected to range from the lower 70s across the Wilmington area to the upper 60s west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be reinforced from the NW Friday night into Saturday. The forecast area will remain under the influence of high pressure through the period with a good deal of sunshine. A digging southern stream system will be organizing across the southern plains and western Gulf states, but its impacts will remain to our west and southwest through Saturday night. It will be seasonably cool with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with Saturday being the cooler of the two days. Lows will be in the mid and upper 30s Friday night. Clouds may begin to become more prevalent overnight Saturday, so will forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s that night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Models indicate split flow in the mid- upper levels thru early Wed. From the Carolinas southward, this area will be under the influence of sw to wsw upper air flow coming from the slowly eastward moving Mexican cutoff/closed upper low that will push into southern TX Mon evening. Some minor timing issues thereafter, but for the most part, models open this upper low into a trough, and further weakens it as it lifts northeast into and thru a longwave ridge aligned over the East Coast of the U.S. late Tuesday. It moves, underneath the longwave ridge, to off the Mid-atlantic states Wed. Overall, this pattern suggests more clouds and a slight chance for pcpn initially, then transitions to a possible damming scenario on Mon thru early Wed with a coastal front/trough lurking just off the immediate coast. At this point in time, models do not bring the coastal front/trough onshore. Thus, overall temps this period will remain at or slightly below climo with no big warm- up given this scenario playing out. Unless, the coastal front moves onshore, then a temperature forecast bust will definitely occur. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 18Z...Expect VFR conditions at all locations through the forecast period. Westerly winds of 10 to 15 kt will become northwest this afternoon and diminish to 5 kt or less after sunset as high pressure builds. Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. Except, clouds and pcpn will return at the end of this period with some MVFR/IFR conditions possible late Sunday thru Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1230 AM Thursday...The cold front is well offshore and westerly winds 10-15 knots are expected much of the afternoon. Seas remain quite large due to the strong southerly winds we experienced over the past 24 hours. The small craft advisory will remain posted through 1 PM for the NC waters, but has been dropped for the SC waters where seas are below 6 feet. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure will be the main influence across the waters. The wind direction will remain from the NW or N through the period, trending to the NE toward sunrise Sunday. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt Friday, but as the pressure gradient briefly tightens in response to reinforcing high pressure from the northwest, wind speeds will trend higher, 15 to 20 kt Friday night into Saturday morning before returning to 10 to 15 kt Saturday afternoon and night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft with perhaps some 4 ft seas late Friday night into Saturday for portions of the outermost waters. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...For this 2 day period, winds and seas will overall be in a diminishing/subsiding trend respectively from Sunday into the 1st half of Monday. For the 2nd half of Monday, models do want to instigate a damming scenario with sfc high ridging south-southwest across the Central Carolinas from the NE states. And the development of a coastal front/trough just offshore from the coast. At this point, models bring the front/trough into the local waters late Monday into Tuesday, but not onshore and inland. Nevertheless, this will make forecasting wind directions a hair puller for the latter end of this period. The sfc pg will start out loose but tighten some at the end of this period. This results in wind speeds increasing especially on the offshore side of the coastal front late Mon into Tue. Significant seas will mainly be dominated and a function of wind driven waves, especially at the end of this period. Eventhough, latest Wavewatch3 shows SCA thresholds being met Monday night, will hold off given the too many ifs that could occur preventing this SCA possibility. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...RAN

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