Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 210113 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 913 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain centered offshore this week, but will continue to extend back to the west over the Eastern Carolinas. A stalled front just inland from the coast will slowly dissipate early Wednesday, leaving a trof of low pressure in it`s place. Tropical moisture will continue to funnel northward from the Gulf of Mexico for much of this week, further enhancing the potential for heavy rainfall and possibly localized short term flooding at times. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 900 PM Tuesday...The FA will be under a saturated airmass with PWs in excess of 2.00 inches tonight into Wednesday. Any small perturbation, ie. convergence along a sfc trof of low pressure, the stalled inland frontal boundary, dynamics associated with the passage of weak mid-level vorts overhead, is all that it will take to develop showers tonight. Could see convection with thunder develop over the warm ssts south of the ILM CWA Coastline and push onshore during the 4 hrs centered on sunrise Wednesday. Will indicate the hier pops for the coastal counties and adjacent Atl waters overnight into daytime Wed. Much of the activity inland has become generally stratiform with a few embedded cells with heavier showers. Will see sfc temp/dewpoint depressions 0 to 3 degrees fahrenheit overnight. With winds possibly going calm, fog could become an issue if any breaks in the low clouds and pcpn occurs. Previous.................................................. As of 3 PM Tuesday...Plume of tropical moisture in excess of 2 inch precipitable waters continues to stream across the eastern Carolinas per the latest microwave measurements aboard passing satellites. Very gradually am expecting the axis of heaviest rainfall to shift farther inland, coincident with the most organized low level convergence, although a myriad of outflow boundaries will allow showers or a storm just about anywhere given the soupy and unstable character. Tonight, weakening showers will linger over the deeper interior and I-95 corridor, while increasing nocturnal buoyancy and convergence offshore spawns new storms over the coastal waters poised to glance and scrape the coast and coastal interior zones overnight into daybreak Wednesday. Waves of enhanced tropical moisture will stream overhead Wed and the potential for torrential rainfall and high POP values will prevail again. Late in the day upper support will weaken as the upper trough deamplifies north of the area, although the air mass will remain in a soupy fashion into the evening. As a result, likely POPs planned for much of the area Wed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Convection is expected to decrease in areal coverage Wednesday night as PWAT values decrease slightly, and more importantly upper support and cyclonic flow aloft wanes. Also the steering flow becomes more westerly Wednesday night and Thursday which may keep developing convection offshore from gaining a foothold to points inland. As a result, POP values revert closer to a normal summer-like pattern, although it appears column moisture will remain substantial and a healthy scattering of storms is anticipated right into Thursday. Short- wave energy will be rounding the top of a low amplitude ridge Thursday afternoon and evening with westerly steering flow so all locations will have a shot for storms/rain, coupled with max temps regaining a full early- summer feel.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Tuesday...Seasonably warm and unsettled weather will continue through at least Monday as the Bermuda ridge retreats eastward, with a cold front slowly descending from the NW. Confidence is not high regarding an actual clean FROPA for this time of year, but a consensus of guidance for now moves the front offshore Monday night, followed by dryer and slightly cooler weather.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 00Z...Reduced flight restrictions will dominate the st 12 hrs. MVFR/IFR with brief periods of LIFR possible, especially during the overnight period. Much of the pcpn will be stratiform in nature through this evening and into the overnight. The inland terminals may observe pre-dawn ceilings below 1k ft with areas of ground fog especially inland terminals. Expect S to SSW winds 5 kt or less thru the overnight with bouts of calm especially across the inland terminals. The coastal terminals may see some onshore movement of convection late in the pre- dawn Wed hrs which may last thru mid-day Wed. Ceilings should lift above 3k ft from midday Wed thru the aftn and early evening hrs. Winds during daylight Wed will mainly run from the S-SW at 5 to 10 kt. Extended Outlook...The risk for flight restrictions due to showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the extended period. The highest threat for convection will occur Thu night thru Fri.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 900 PM Tuesday...Winds generally S to SW at 5 to 10 kt this evening. There is a very slight tightening of the pg on the east side of the stalled inland front which includes the ilm Waters. As a result will indicate speeds increasing to 10 to occasionally 15 kt late. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft with a pseudo SSE ground swell at 7 second periods dominating the local waters. Convection will be isolated this evening but should increase in coverage during the pre-dawn Wed hours and last thru late daytime Wed morning. Previous....................................................... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Winds and Seas are favorable tonight through Wednesday, although the problem is scattered to numerous showers and TSTMS locally reducing visibility, while kicking up local winds and seas in and near any storms. Otherwise SW winds 10-15 KT and seas 2-3 feet outside of the storms. Seas will be dominated from a southerly direction in 5-6 second wave periods. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Since Bermuda High pressure remains in place this period no major changes to winds and seas are expected this period. Essentially a continuation of SW winds 10-15 KT and seas 2-3 feet. Isolated to scattered convection is expected over the waters this period generally moving from WSW to ENE over the waters. Storms this period may march off land over the near shore waters since the flow aloft is mostly from the west. Wave direction will be mainly from the south in 6-7 second intervals. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Tuesday...Expect SWly winds of 10 to 15 kts on Friday increasing to 15 to 20 kts on Saturday as the gradient around the backside of the Bermuda Ridge tightens. Seas will likewise increase and it is possible that a Small Craft Advisory may need to be raised for Saturday. Some improvement is expected as the gradient again loosens on Sunday.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...DCH

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