Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040820 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 320 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TODAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...EVEN WITHOUT A HIGH TO HOLD IT IN PLACE...THE WARM FRONT HAS HAD ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS THWARTED BY THE PONDEROUS WEIGHT OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS STILL CLINGING TO THE SURFACE. JUST 1500 FEET UP SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING BEYOND 30 KNOTS AND MAY APPROACH 40 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE COLD GROUND (AND ADJACENT OCEAN) HAS LED TO DENSE FOG. THIS FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY SUNNY A REMARKABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO 75-80 DEGREES INLAND. THAT`S NO JOKE! TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ANYWHERE NEAR THE BEACHES AS WINDS BLOW ONSHORE ACROSS 45-50 DEGREE WATER. THE WORST WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY REACH 60 DEGREES WITH DENSE FOG CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE BEACHES INTO TONIGHT DUE TO FAVORABLY ALIGNED WIND DIRECTIONS AND CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS RELATIVE TO OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF FLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A NEAR-SOLID OVERCAST POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN INLAND. THIS WILL STABILIZE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR WEDNESDAY AMID WHAT HAS BEEN A FRIGID WINTER...WITH FEBRUARY RANKING AS THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 141 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING WHICH CRUNCHES OUT TO ABOUT A 1 IN 34 YEAR OCCURRENCE OF COLD. THE OTHER NOTABLE HIGHLIGHT IS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN FOLLOWED BY A BITING INTRUSION OF GLACIAL AIR AND LINGERING PCPN. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM THE BULK OF IT THURSDAY...LOOKS TO BE NEARLY A HALF INCH ACROSS SE NC AND LOCALITIES WEST OF I-95 AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NE SC AND COASTAL SC. POPPED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY GIVEN JET SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS...WHERE MAXIMUMS THURSDAY MINUS MINIMUMS FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND JUST A FRESH REMINDER OLD MAN WINTER STILL HAS BREATHINGS INTO EARLY MARCH. AN OVERLAP OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING PCPN WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW 8Z-10Z OR 3AM- 5AM EARLY FRIDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH TROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SIGNS OF RELAXING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE TROUGH USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDES ALONG THE OLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WARRANTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. MARCH SUNSHINE WONT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO WARM THINGS UP WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 50S BUT THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MIDDLE 30S. LETHARGIC WARMUP CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VERY LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXIST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO TRANSIT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY TAKING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK TO LIFT PAST THE ILM AND LBT AIRPORTS. BEHIND THE FRONT VSBYS WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE AT THE LBT/FLO/ILM AIRPORTS...HOWEVER CRE/MYR MAY REMAIN IN THE SOUP AS DENSE SEA FOG GENERATED BY THE INTERACTION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH VERY COLD NEARSHORE OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. ACCELERATING SOUTH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL NOT MIX DOWN EFFECTIVELY TO THE GROUND UNTIL LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON. UNTIL THEN THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AS 1000 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT IS CRAWLING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD FINALLY LEAP NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VERY CHILLY WATER TEMPERATURES IS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG. WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT I SEE NO REASON WHY THE FOG WILL END...AND I AM INCLUDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING...REMAINING THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS JUST 30-60 OFFSHORE WILL GENERATE A 6-7 SECOND SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...PUSHING TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FEET. THIS SWELL SHOULD EXCEED ANY LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WAVE SET. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFRIENDLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THURSDAY...AS THE WARM AIR MAY STRUGGLE REACHING THE COLD DENSE AIR ABOVE THE CHILLY SSTS IN PLACE. IF NOT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CERTAINLY BEHIND IT...AS VERY COLD AIR SPILLS OVER THE WATERS...WITH AT A MINIMUM 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER HAZARD PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG AS BALMY AIR TRACKS OVER THE FRIGID WATERS...REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES. RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY ALSO RESTRICT LINE OF SIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INITIALLY AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS SEASON THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND TEN KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DEVELOPS. IF ANYTHING WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. BY LATER SATURDAY VALUES DROP TO 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053-055. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR SCZ054-056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...TRA

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