National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 141031
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL WEATHER WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS AFTER
TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
40S MOST PLACES. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER
DAY. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. MODEL AND ACTUAL UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY YET
STEADILY MOISTENING COLUMN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THEN
OFFSHORE. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH ONLY SOME PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL HAVE QUICKLY TRANSITIONED
FROM A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH TO ESSENTIALLY A WESTERLY PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A VERY WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
PATTERN BEFORE A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE GFS IS PAINTING A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AT WORK. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS AND
WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT ANY
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE FURTHER DOWN THE LINE.
OTHERWISE...ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WITH POPS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODULATED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE BUT OVERALL READINGS ARE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. VFR WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE BECOMING N-NE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE S-SW...REMAINING AOB 10 KTS...THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6:30 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS STAYING IN
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS. SPEEDS
WILL GET A LITTLE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY ON THE LOWER END OF A 20-25
KNOT RANGE. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY A FEW SIX FOOTERS. HEIGHTS WILL
DROP A BIT THURSDAY TO 2-4 FEET.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER
NEARSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON...FULLY
INDICATIVE OF A SUMMER PATTERN. NOT SURPRISINGLY...WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A MINOR SWELL COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BUT
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...REK/SHK