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576
FXUS62 KILM 281926
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
326 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Offshore high pressure leads to dry conditions through Monday.
An upper level disturbance will lead to shower and storm chances
Tuesday and Wednesday, a warming trend starting early next week
as the high pushes further offshore. A cold front moves through
late in the week, which brings an increased chance for rain.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mid level ridging and surface high pressure offshore
leads to basically a persistence forecast. Convective clouds will
dissipate in a few more hours leading to a mostly clear overnight.
Fog is possible again in the wee hours of the morning more so
inland. For Monday although surface dewpoints are similar to today`s
soundings show drier air poised to mix down thus the cloud forecast
is considerably less than todays observations. Overnight lows will
reach the middle 50s with Mondays highs probably reaching around 80
most areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mon night should be mostly clear with cloud cover increasing towards
Tues morning ahead of a shortwave, mostly in the form of mid/high
level clouds early. Offshore high pressure will shift further from
the coast through the day Tues with some lower clouds associated
with isolated showers later in the day. It looks like a coastal
trough forms Wed as the shortwave trough aloft deepens before
nudging offshore by the end of the period. This will lead to
enhanced precip chances Wed with thunder chances in the afternoon
due to some instability. Currently the area is just in general
thunder with ML lapse rates and winds aloft not supporting much of a
wind or hail threat. Sounding bulk shear values could suggest some
storm organization but otherwise not expecting a severe threat at
this time.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The shortwave trough should be offshore Wed night with rain moving
out with it, more surface high pressure approaching due to a
shortwave ridge. It looks like a weak backdoor cold front may cross
over the area Thurs AM but the passage will be dry, the boundary
maybe even becoming diffuse before reaching us. Low precip chances
will be relegated to the afternoon due to a weak pressure trough
inland. Better chances for showers/storms will come towards the end
of the week due to an approaching cold front and upper level trough.
Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s with cooler conditions
towards the end of the week with the increasing rain chances. Lows
generally in the 60s, again cooler towards the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Persistence forecast for the aviation community through Monday.
Atlantic High Pressure will remain in place with a somewhat
moist onshore flow. Based primarily on this morning`s
observations...advertised IFR BR in both FLO and LBT for the
early morning hours. Outside of this primarily VFR conditions.

Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early
next week outside of a low chance of morning fog or low cigs
each morning. Isolated showers accompanying a cold front
possible Tue night.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Monday...Conditions across the coastal waters are all
but in summer time mode. Winds maintain a southerly component in
and around ten knots. Similar persistent story for significant
seas with 2-4 feet.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. S/SW winds 10-15
kts become ENE Thur with the passage of a surface boundary, becoming
southerly again Fri. Seas generally 2-3 ft. Best chances for
shower/storms over the waters is Wed with the passage of a
disturbance aloft and low pressure possibly forming along the
coast.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK/LEW