National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 140542
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ENDING THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 11 PM THURSDAY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND ADJACENT WATERS TIL 1 AM. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVE.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT/1AM. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AND WITH THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND.

RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AFTER 05-07Z FROM W TO E. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI WITH
WEAK CAA OCCURRING NEAR DAYBREAK. THAT BEING THE CASE...MIN TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST
EARLY MORNING COLD FROPA. P/W VALUES DROP TO THE ONE INCH RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH A STABLE AIR-MASS EXPECT A DRY FORECAST
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY AND DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SEE MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DISPLAY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF AMPLITUDE ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH BASICALLY A
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH BUCKLES THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S WITH
SLIGHT TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. WPC HAS A RATHER WET SCENARIO
ADVERTISED ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN IN POPS TO MATCH
NEIGHBORS BETTER. TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

A MAJORITY OF THE TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW LINGERING STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND
PORTIONS OF SC. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATE
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST AOB 5 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11 PM THURSDAY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS TIL 1 AM. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE WATERS
WILL STILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. MARINERS SHOULD BE
IN SAFE PORT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO FRI
MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

SW WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL EASE TO
10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
UP TO 4 TO 6 FT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDING IN THE DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE FLOW FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHEST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS AN UNSEASONAL COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AROUND 2 FT ON SATURDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND...A PATTERN WHICH WE SEE MOST
OF THE SUMMER ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL BE THE CENTRAL THEME FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON
COURTESY OF THE SEA BREEZE. WAVEWATCH SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH
2-4 FEET MOSTLY OF SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SWELL COMPONENT DOES SHOW UP LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL/MJC