Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 140542 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 142 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ENDING THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 11 PM THURSDAY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT WATERS TIL 1 AM. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVE. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT/1AM. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND WITH THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. RAPID DRYING IS EXPECTED AFTER 05-07Z FROM W TO E. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRI WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING NEAR DAYBREAK. THAT BEING THE CASE...MIN TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN POST EARLY MORNING COLD FROPA. P/W VALUES DROP TO THE ONE INCH RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH A STABLE AIR-MASS EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID 80S MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SEE MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DISPLAY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AMPLITUDE ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH BASICALLY A WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. BY TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST WHICH BUCKLES THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S WITH SLIGHT TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS A FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. WPC HAS A RATHER WET SCENARIO ADVERTISED ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWN IN POPS TO MATCH NEIGHBORS BETTER. TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH A FEW LINGERING STORMS ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF SC. OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK...NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST AOB 5 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... AS OF 11 PM THURSDAY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TIL 1 AM. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL STILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. MARINERS SHOULD BE IN SAFE PORT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO FRI MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SW WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL EASE TO 10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDING IN THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW FRI MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS AN UNSEASONAL COLD SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 2 FT ON SATURDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND...A PATTERN WHICH WE SEE MOST OF THE SUMMER ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE THE CENTRAL THEME FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT ACCELERATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE SEA BREEZE. WAVEWATCH SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH 2-4 FEET MOSTLY OF SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWELL COMPONENT DOES SHOW UP LATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL/MJC

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