Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 291747 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 147 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ILM CWA HAVE INCREASED ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 50S WILL BE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON AND END UP BEING TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING DAYTIME MONDAY. VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. NW-N WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO THE SFC BASED INVERSION DEVELOPS. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS JUST AFTER SUNSET. HIGH AND EVENTUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW JET WILL EVENTUALLY WEAR DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. ON MONDAY...ANTICIPATE SCT/BKN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND FURTHER DROP TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...PEAKING THIS MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 FT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT...REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH/SGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.