Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 241053 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 655 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A RATHER LARGE RANGE IN TEMPS AT SUNRISE...LOWER TO MID 40S WERE MOST COMMON ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH JUST A FEW COOLER POCKETS OF MID 40S. BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE RATHER SHORT ORDER OF THE MORNING CHILL... BUT WE WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF HIGHS REACHED WED AFTERNOON...AND THE SHORTFALL WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND THIS EVE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AS SE TO S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE STRONG FOR FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT. TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. A CIRRUS CEILING WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST SAT AFTN. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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