Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280825 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 325 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north of the area today, leading to near record high temperatures by Wednesday. A strong cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night and early Thursday, followed by seasonably cool temperatures late week, with temperatures possibly falling below freezing Saturday morning. A warming trend is expected Sunday through early week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Warm front will linger along the coast this morning as a weak surface wave in eastern GA creeps northeast along the boundary. Weak isentropic lift, as the wave approaches the area, has resulted in patchy showers across the area. Warm front lifts northwest of the area during the morning Tue with strong warm advection developing. Advection will push temps into the mid 70s, well above climo, and dewpoints into the lower 60s. Despite increasing surface based instability this afternoon there may be a limited amount of diurnal convection. Flow above 8k ft is westerly, leading to an abundance of dry air aloft, and mid level lapse rates are weak. The best chance for isolated convection will be along the modified seabreeze, mainly in southeastern NC. Additional activity might develop along outflow from initial storms, but the synoptic wind field may disrupt most outflow before any deeper convection is able to develop. Lack of forcing mechanisms and instability during the late evening and overnight hours should bring an end to any lingering evening showers and keep the overnight period dry. Strong southwest flow continues pumping warm moist air over the region and lows will end up more than 20 degrees above climo, close to what daytime highs should be for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main headline this period is potential for record warmth Wednesday, followed by passage of a strong cold front, possibly accompanied by strong to severe TSTMS late Wednesday into early Thursday. Possibly because it`s passage is not lined up well with diurnal heating, but low-level winds will be strong nonetheless. As it stands right now the SPC has laid out a slight risk that extends as far east as I-95. Record highs Wednesday 3/1 include CRE-81 in 1955, ILM-83 in 1918, and FLO-84 in 1997. Expected rainfall with front 020-0.40 on average. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Main theme this period is seasonably cold, and below normal temperatures on Saturday, where sub freezing readings may prevail at daybreak Saturday as strong high pressure migrates across the region. The cold early Saturday could damage early blooms or flowering crops. The high will slip off the SE coast Sunday allowing the start of a warming trend. Late Monday a cold front will approach from the west, but with the parent low over the Great Lakes, the front may not be very powerful here locally. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 06Z...Anticipate cloud cover increasing with bases lowering during the next few hours, along with an increase in potential for light showers through daybreak or so. MVFR ceilings may become more widespread but do not anticipate any IFR ceilings. Increasing low level moisture and light winds will lead to development of morning fog. Visibility in most areas will remain MVFR or higher but inland areas could briefly see visibility drop into the IFR category. A warm front along the coast will lift northeast this morning with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly for coastal counties of NC, possible. Any showers or thunderstorms will dissipate with the loss of heating in the evening. Extended Outlook...VFR. However, there is a risk for reduced ceilings and visibility in showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wed night into Thu morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Warm front near the coast this morning has resulted in a mix of light north to northwest winds closer to shore with stronger southerly winds farther off the coast. The warm front lifts north of the area today with Bermuda High expanding west and southwest flow developing across the waters. Southwest flow of 10 to 15 kt through the afternoon will increase to 15 to 20 kt overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft through the morning will start trending up late in the day as southwest flow starts to increase. Seas by the end of the period will be running 3 to 5 ft. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed sometime on Wednesday, certainly by evening but timing is a bit nebulous right now with marginal conditions during the day. Will not raise flags until it becomes more clear on timing. the other hazard will be strong TSTMS Wednesday night which will produce locally higher winds and waves. Count of 4-8 foot seas late Wednesday, wind a wind-shift early Thursday. An improving trend Thursday as high pressure nears and winds ease, but an Advisory in the very early going. LONG TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...Clipper like system will bring an increase in N winds Friday but improvement is expected into Saturday as high pressure moves almost overhead, but chilly. Seas Friday 3-5 feet will ease to 2-4 feet into Saturday. An under-lying ESE swell of 1-2 feet will prevail this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...8 LONG TERM...8 AVIATION...III

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