Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 012253 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 653 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE COAST IS SHIFTED EAST BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE WEDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT BY DAYBREAK...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLUMN UNDER 1500 FT ALMOST FULLY SATURATED. WHILE THERE IS NO REAL SOURCE OF LIFT...AND EVEN SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ...THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN STRATUS HANGING AROUND ALL NIGHT BUT COULD LEAD TO PATCHES OF MIST OR DRIZZLE. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LACK OF FORCING SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SO BY MIDNIGHT HAVE MOST AREAS UNDER MENTIONABLE POP THRESHOLDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL LAYER DATA KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...THOUGH PATCHES OF 4-5SM ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN MON MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MON AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND ON MON...DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER ISOLATED SPOTS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL CONFINE POPS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OR JUST BELOW ON MON. A VERY PRONOUNCED NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS/FOG AROUND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THIS STRONG INVERSION DOES FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND SO WE MAY AT LEAST SEE SOME GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE DURING MON. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER MON NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO TUE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REDEVELOPS ON LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT AS MOIST S TO SW OR WSW WINDS ABOVE 2 KFT TOP THE COOL DOME OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. ALSO...A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AND NOT ONLY KEEP SKIES CLOUDY...BUT BRING MORE WET WEATHER. THERE IS NO RISK OF ANY FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE HIGH DOES MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND THE MODELS ARE IN A HURRY TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE. ALTHOUGH IT MAY EVOLVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PORTRAYED...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER AND ITS PROXIMITY SHOULD ALLOW A WARMER RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL LEVELS. WILL SHOW TEMPS TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MON LIKELY CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN TUE. HIGHS MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO SUBTRACT A GOOD 10 DEGREES FROM THOSE VALUES ON TUE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S MON NIGHT. LOWS TUE EVE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE HIGHS OF THE DAY AND THEN MOVE UPWARDS FROM THERE DURING THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN QUITE A WHILE. UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ON UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE MID WEST. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING A DRIER AND WARMER DAY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY HIGH WITH UP TO 1.3 INCHES OF PCP WATER WED MORNING...THE SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES KEEP IT CONFINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS AND VERY HIGH WITH A DECENT DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. THE COAST WILL NOT BE AS FORTUNATE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE COOLER OCEAN AIR OVER THE BEACHES ADVECTING INLAND A BIT. ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG WILL EXIST AS THE WARMER AIR RUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. BY LATE WED SHWRS WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER PORTIONS OF AREA...MAINLY INLAND ON WED BUT EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP TO COME WED EVE INTO THURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CAA TO FOLLOW. SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE COMING BACK TO AN EARLIER FROPA FOR WED NIGHT INSTEAD OF THURS. MAY SEE MAX TEMPS FOR THURS AT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHALLOW COOL AIR WILL COME RUSHING IN BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT WHICH SHOULD REMAINED ALIGNED SW TO NE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE CLOUDS AND PCP SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THURS AND POSSIBLY LONGER. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED IN AT THE SFC...WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ALL PCP AS A COLD RAIN BEHIND FRONT AT THIS POINT. THE GFS DOES SHOW MAIN SHORTWAVE SWINGING OFF THE COAST BY FRI MORNING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS....BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL REMAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER ALTHOUGH COOLER FORECAST. TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE ONCE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH WED NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS UP AROUND 12C WED AFTN DROPPING DOWN JUST BELOW 0C BY FRI MORNING. THIS STRONG CAA AND POSSIBLY LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP VERY COOL TEMPS FOR THURS AND FRI. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 40S ON THURS AND NOT EVEN REACHING 40 ON FRI IN MANY PLACES. FOR NOW...WILL TREND COOLER BUT NOT GET THAT EXTREME JUST YET AS MODELS HAVE NOT REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK. HESITANT ESPECIALLY ON FRI AS SUNSHINE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT AND THIS TIME OF YEAR THE SUN IS PLAYING A BIGGER ROLE IN WARMING. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS AS FRONT PRETTY MUCH LAYS OVER TOP OF US THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR BEFORE REMAINING PREDOMINATELY IFR OVERNIGHT. LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION IN A FEW HOURS...AND THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON IT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE US MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...QUITE LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR OR BETTER. FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR LATE MON. PERIODS OF MVFR/SHOWERS TUE/WED. RAIN/IFR THUR. VFR DEVELOPING FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH NOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. WINDS AT 41013 HAVE GONE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN AROUND 10 KT. NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CLOSER TO DAYBREAK LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS WEAK HIGH CENTERED OVER GA/SC BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND WESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT CHANGEABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD. WINDS MON MORNING WILL BE WESTERLY...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MON NIGHT AS A SURGE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO EASTERLY DURING TUE AND THEN SE AND S BY TUE EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE WILL VEER TO SW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MON NIGHT INTO TUE...UP TO 4 TO 7 FT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 6 FT TUE NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KTS AS THEY SHIFT MORE ABRUPTLY AROUND FROM SW TO N BEHIND FRONT OVERNIGHT WED. STRONG CAA AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT THURS. THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THIS MAY KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH LATE FRI AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43

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