Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 012343 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 743 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE STALLING NEARBY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG INTERSTATE 95 THIS EVENING ALONG THE COLLISION BETWEEN OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM THE WEST AND THE SEABREEZE PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS INITIAL PULSE OF SEVERE (SOME SEVERE!) WILL LIKELY PETER OUT BY 830-845 PM...SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500 J/KG CAPE AND REASONABLY LOW LFC HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. BY THE TIME WE GET TO 1030-1100 PM THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD GET TOO STABLE FOR MUCH MORE THAN ELEVATED SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF I-95 OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZING CONVECTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST WAS THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS NEAR-TERM UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... CONVECTION BLOSSOMING ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...BUT IT IS SLOWLY RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS IS BEING DISPLACED BY A VERY WELL DEVELOPED CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MS RIVER VLY. CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS GA AND CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC IN RESPONSE TO AMPLE HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS...BUT HAS STRUGGLED THUS FAR WITHIN THE ILM CWA. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE HAVE CREATED BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE BETTER HEATING HAS DRIVEN BETTER INSTABILITY...WHICH IS ACTING IN TANDEM WITH AT LEAST RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES THAN FURTHER EAST IN THE CWA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE CONVECTION OUT WEST WILL BLOSSOM FURTHER AND THEN ADVECT NE INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO ASSISTANCE OF SHORTWAVE PVA. STILL CANNOT TRULY IDENTIFY ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED AROUND THE PRIMARY CUTOFF...BUT THEY MUST BE THERE...AND ALL HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT. HAVE BUMPED POP TO HIGH-CHC FOR WEST OF I-95 THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND...BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING. CONVECTION WILL ERODE A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK...BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST TOWARDS DAWN AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND EVEN BETTER MOIST ADVECTION PUSH CLOSER. CONTINUED SW FLOW AND AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL KEEP MINS ELEVATED TONIGHT...LIKELY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 70...LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES. MOS NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND HAVE BLENDED THE MET/MAV FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING THE CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO DRIFT EAST...PERHAPS REACHING THE APPALACHIANS WED AND WED NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DRIVE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD BE IMPACTED. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT CERTAIN...EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. ONCE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THEY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MID AND LATE EVE. THUS...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION...BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IN BANDS/LINES...WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IS THE CASE UPSTREAM TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD LESSEN THE RISK FOR STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO A DAMAGING WET MICROBURST OR TWO. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER INLAND AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY 90 DEGREE READINGS EITHER DAY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. INITIALLY THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND LINGER OVER THE AREA. EVENTUALLY A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REINFORCE THE RESIDUAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE INCLUDE A BOUNDARY LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND WAVERING INLAND FROM TIME TO TIME THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THIS FEATURE BASICALLY WASHES OUT ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS THE STRONGEST AND THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY VALUES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY TRENDING DOWN TO GOOD CHANCE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH VFR AT THE COASTAL SITES. OVERNIGHT...MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR OVERNIGHT GIVEN LINGERING LOW CIGS AND PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. VFR ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CONVECTION AT KFLO/KLBT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE INLAND SITES REMAIN QUIET WITH VFR. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS WITH LINGERING LOW CIGS...AS NOTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON TUESDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES. ANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING EAST HOWEVER...AND THE SWELL IS SLOWLY ABATING. WHAT HAD BEEN A 4FT/11SEC EASTERLY SWELL HAS EASED TO 3FT/9SEC...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE BUOYS HAVE DROPPED TO 2-3 FT...AND THE LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL MAINTAIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM IN A SWELL-DOMINATED FASHION. SO...ALTHOUGH THE SWELL IS EASING...IT IS DOING SO ONLY VERY SLOWLY...AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT...FROM THE N AND W...WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ILL DEFINED LATE WEEK. VARIED WIND DIRECTIONS THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL OCCUR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS PERIOD. SSW TO SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE WITH MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE ON SE AND THEN S DURING THE DAY WED AND WED NIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST WED NIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE WAVERING FRONT THAT INITIALLY IS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH THE SAME PROGRESSION OF EVENTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL IN THE WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT HOVERING AROUND TEN KNOTS. SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET WITH AN OCCASIONAL FOUR FOOTER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA/JDW SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL

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