Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 030038 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 838 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INTO A LINE AND MOVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT DID EXTEND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF ROBESON...COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 9 PM. THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE...BETWEEN SOUTHPORT AND WINYAH BAY THROUGH 9/10 PM. MARINERS SHOULD BE HEADING TO SHORE NOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING. THUS...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR THAT HAS DEVELOPED...LOWER TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST. THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUE AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUE INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT. ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WINYAH BAY AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET...THROUGH 6 AM. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUE. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...SGL

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