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089
FXUS62 KILM 200743
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
343 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of
the work week. Temperatures warm through mid week with rain
chances not returning until late Thursday into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry high pressure will maintain control as it ridges southward into
the area. This will bring unseasonably cool air into southeast NC
and northeast SC with highs today close to 80 most locales and lows
tonight mainly in the mid to upper 50s. Some low-level moisture
advecting into the area and trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion
this morning and again tonight will likely yield some low
clouds/fog. Think the better chance of fog will be tonight though
given lighter low-level winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Shortwave ridging aloft aligns itself across the east coast through
the period with persistent surface high pressure. This will lead to
dry conditions through the short term period with a warming trend.
Some sources of forecast uncertainty could be cloudiness and lows
Tuesday night as the center of the high looks to nudge NE. This
could allow flow around the high to bring in stratus overnight,
which would inhibit radiational cooling despite calm winds. Still
lowered temps in our colder spots slightly. Otherwise, light onshore
flow becoming more SW by the end of the period. Highs warm from the
lower 80s to near 90; Lows near 60 warming into the mid 60s.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure moves offshore ahead of a shortwave Thurs night.
Forcing clips the northern part of the area with low rain chances. A
cold front will then approach through the end of the week. The
temperature forecast is a bit difficult as it will depend on how far
south this front pushes. Current trends show that it will stick
north of the area, so have risen temps slightly from previous
forecast. Spotty forcing aloft paired with enhanced moisture will
support increased shower/storm chances through the end of the period.
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.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Generally VFR to start the 06Z TAF period across SE NC and NE SC.
Still leaning toward VFR at all 5 TAF sites through the period with
high pressure in control, although some low-level moisture will be
present so can`t rule out MVFR cigs, especially at KILM around
daybreak.

Extended Outlook...VFR will dominate but early morning vis/cig
restrictions possible each day. Also, showers/storms also possible
starting Thu night.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will maintain gusty
northeast winds into this evening before some improvement overnight.
Seas will also be elevated up to 5 ft, mainly due to wind waves but
also some mixed swells, but overall conditions should stay below
Small Craft Advisory levels.

Tuesday through Friday Night...Sub-SCA conditions under predominant
high pressure with increasing rain chances Thurs night. Onshore flow
AOB 10 kts becomes more SW 10-15 kts by Thurs. Seas 2-3 ft becoming
more 2 ft by Wed. Swells SE at 9-10 sec with a decreasing NE swell 7-
9 sec.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW